Prior to the New York Knicks butchering the Brooklyn Nets, the sky was falling in Gotham City. And it had been falling for quite some time. Even after the win, the Knicks are 3-7 in their last 10 games and tied with the Raptors in the Eastern Conference standings. Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors are surging after plastering their last two West coast road trip foes on a back-to-back.
And media whispers — including from the great Zach Lowe — are that Karl-Anthony Towns might be more to blame than others in New York. His scoring and efficiency are down on the season. His defence remains problematic, especially alongside that of Jalen Brunson. He is sacrificing on the a Knicks’ squad studded with stars. With him on an enormous contract that ends in 2027-28 with a player option for more than $60 M, there’s likely no time more than now which could see Towns more available for trade.
Enter the Raptors. Towns does exactly what the Raptors need, while at the same time the Raptors are equipped to soften his weaknesses.
The Raptors lack shooting. It’s clear, despite their explosion against the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings, that this is a problem. Immanuel Quickley has been on a down year (for himself) from deep. Gradey Dick’s jumper has been wayward since entering the NBA. Brandon Ingram is heating up but still cool on the season. Sandro Mamukelashvili has found his jumper somehow one of the most important elements of the team. And there aren’t too many shooters on the team beyond them.
Meanwhile, Towns is one of the best big-man shooters in NBA history. His four seasons attempting at least 4.0 triples per game while shooting 40 percent on them is first in NBA history for centers. His pick and pop is a dramatic weapon that sees him as one of the most efficient pick-and-roll rollers in the league, more or less tied with Nikola Jokic. And this is a down year from him! His 3-point shooting is down to 36-percent accuracy. He would still slot in as the best or second-best shooter on the Raptors, and doing it as a center. Which means far more when there’s shooting at that slot.
Just ask Mamukelashvili. He is Toronto’s best shooting center for quite some time, and his presence has meant oodles of power for Toronto’s offence. But his best skill isn’t his shooting — which is very impactful but not to the extent of Town’s ability there — but his driving. Mamukelashvili rumbles to the rim, drives closeouts, and is fantastic getting to the hoop. He is shooting 60 percent on drives! But he only drives a small handful of times a game, 2.3 times to be precise.
Towns is far, far more as a driver. He’s driving more than seven times a game, which is fourth in the league for centers. (Again! In a down year!) They can see plenty of flailing, and they can be ambling and slow, and can result in awkward shots. But he makes those awkward shots at a very solid rate. He reaches deep in the paint more than you’d expect. And as a result of his spacing and driving abilities, his team shoots at the rim 7.6 percentage points more frequently with him on the floor than on the bench. That ranks third in the league among players with 1000 or more minutes. Towns just boosts a team’s offence in manifold ways that more or less are near the top of the league in countless categories. The guy is a star even if he doesn’t always play like a traditional one. If Mamukelashvili jumpstarts Toronto, Towns would be a damn volcano in the boot of the car.
He would boost Toronto’s two greatest offensive weaknesses: shooting and driving. He can create for himself from isolation, though it’s not his best strength. He’s a solid passer, though he’s not an offensive hub. But he would slot well into Toronto’s offensive system both as a beneficiary of Darko Rajakovic’s principles and as a means of optimizing his teammates. Barnes would find an immediate favourite target while also seeing more space on his own drives and rolls to the hoop. Towns makes rapid decisions — among players that average 50 or more touches, he averages the sixth-fewest dribbles per touch — and would help exacerbate the offensive advantages his teammates create while also creating plenty of his own. A Towns-Barnes frontcourt is the thing of which dreams are made.
Add in that Towns is one of the league’s best defensive rebounders, and that is just one more skill that would help the Raptors. He’s fourth in defensive rebounds per game, and his on-off rate for the team’s defensive rebounding percentage ranks sixth. Meaning he doesn’t just grab rebounds; he grabs rebounds that the team otherwise wouldn’t. Despite improving dramatically since the start of the season, the team is still right in the middle of the league on the defensive glass. The team has really slowed down on its hit-ahead passes since the start of the season in order to prioritize its defensive rebounding, which has in turn limited its ability to score efficiently in transition. With Towns eating the defensive glass, Barnes especially would be freed for more playtime in transition, which would both boost Toronto’s defence (fewer opposing possession) and offence (more and better transition chances).
Now, the Raptors don’t currently have a point guard who can service Towns in an ideal way. The Immanuel Quickley-Towns pick and roll could probably be switched without creating advantages, especially if opposing teams put wings on Towns. (Jamal Shead I think would be better at finding ways of using Towns in the pick and roll.) But Towns sets pretty solid screens (tied with Alperen Sengun for screen assists on the year and above any non-Jakob Poeltl Raptor). Toronto might not use him perfectly, but the fit is snug enough. Barnes-Towns pick and rolls would find interesting shots, and Shead-Towns pick and rolls would be money, too. (I also think RJ Barrett and Towns could fit snugly together.)
Furthermore, Towns has been something of a defensive negative on the year. Outside of the rebounding, he doesn’t defend well enough in the pick and roll, and he’s nothing to write home about as a rim protector. He doesn’t move well enough to contest tons of shots there as a helper, and he doesn’t force enough misses, either, when he does contest shots. But that’s where Barnes comes in. He has proven brilliant as a helper around the rim, as has Collin Murray-Boyles. Toronto has a stable of huge, defensive forwards to help Towns on the defensive end that the Knicks in many ways lack. The Raptors’ defence has been great without a center. Adding Towns would force some changes, and it might see some slippage. But I have no doubts that the team could remain a strong defensive one.
How the actual trade gets done is up for debate. Poeltl doesn’t make nearly enough money to match Towns’ salary, so the Raptors would need to include more. One of the only ways to make it happen would be Poeltl and Brandon Ingram in exchange for Towns and Guerschon Yabusele. Now, trading Ingram after his very solid half season with the Raptors could bear its own costs. But in my mind, this would be a huge upgrade for Toronto. The Knicks would likely need a first-round pick as well, perhaps even two. There’s a limit to how many picks Toronto would be interested in sending out, but if it’s just one, I think the Raptors should make the trade.
Why would the Knicks do it? It would shrink Towns’ contract into two different ones, and Ingram is a hell of a performer. If Poeltl is healthy, he would give the Knicks far more consistent pick-and-roll defence, and his screening would service Jalen Brunson more than that of Towns. New York would only do this if the sky is falling, but perhaps it has hit that points. And picks to sweeten the pot might just get them there.
Right now, the East is weak, and the Raptors are strong. They still have some issues as a team, especially on the offensive end. And those have cost the Raptors plenty of wins on the season. But Towns would solve so, so many of Toronto’s problems. And the Raptors are equipped to make Towns’ own problems less detrimental than they are to the Knicks.
The trade deadline is only weeks away, and the Raptors have been linked to countless big names already. But if the Raptors are serious about making a run this season, there’s one name I think would be best: Karl-Anthony Towns.
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