Team-building is a moving target. So is the NBA’s trade deadline. One minute, you’re in the conversation for Domantas Sabonis or Anthony Davis, perhaps flirting with the Milwaukee Bucks for Giannis Antetokounmpo, or making calls on LaMelo Ball, and the next, you’re using two second-round picks to get under the luxury tax, end the Ochai Agbaji experiment, and get a backup big man option in Trayce Jackson-Davis.
What in the world does all of this mean for this season’s Raptors team?
Looking Inward
Despite speculation that the Raptors were looking to move RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, or Immanuel Quickley, the Raptors decided the price was too high to upgrade or shed salary at the deadline. Their lack of a true expiring contract outside of Agbaji limited their ability to be real players in the market for guys like Jaren Jackson Jr. or Anthony Davis, who went to rebuilding teams (more on that in a second). They also decided against using a first-round pick to get a more appealing centre like Day’Ron Sharpe, Goga Bitadze, or Yves Missi.
While one could argue the Raptors should have been more aggressive, especially given the current state of the Eastern Conference and the Raptors’ glaring issues on the interior and on the wings — the rationale of doing something small was sound, in my opinion.
The Raptors are a top 6 team in their conference despite missing their starting centre for nearly half the season and Barrett missing extended time with knee and ankle injuries. In spite of that, they have the sixth-best defense in the NBA, are middle of the pack in terms of net rating, Scottie Barnes is an All-Star, Brandon Ingram had a worthy case, Collin Murray-Boyles is one of the best and most impactful rookies in the league and while their offensive woes have been loud, especially as of late, they have drastically improved on that end compared to the last couple of seasons.
The sky isn’t falling. And zooming out, the Raptors have drastically changed both their short and long-term outlook with the season they’ve had.
If Poeltl returns soon and is healthy, the Raptors will be able to gather invaluable data on how this core performs in the playoffs. Any weaknesses or flaws will be exposed. Barnes and their young group will get some much-needed postseason experience, and they’ll be better for it.
Internal development, as always, will be at the forefront of what the Raptors plan.
Looking Outward
The opportunity cost of doing something substantial to give this season’s team a better chance in the postseason proved too high, and, again, looking at the rest of the conference, it’s easy to see why.
Almost everyone in the East playoff race made an upgrade. The Pistons added shooting with Kevin Huerter. The Celtics added a big man in Nikola Vucevic. The Knicks didn’t have much they could do, outside of maybe trying to take a swing at Giannis, but they have done their fair share of shopping. The Sixers, like the Raptors, did some housekeeping, trading Jared McCann for future picks to retain some of their 2-way talent, primarily Dominick Barlow. The Pacers added Ivica Zubac.
The Cavaliers took the biggest swing, swapping Darius Garland for James Harden, and added Keon Ellis and Dennis Schroder, two savvy, defensive-minded guards, to their roster. They also have the third-easiest schedule in the NBA for the rest of the year, priming them for a leap up the standings.
While the Raptors have had wins over the Sixers and Cavs this season, the Raptors are 11-15 against teams above .500, they’ve lost all their games against the Celtics and Knicks, and haven’t faced the Harden-led version of the Cavs, either. The Raptors also have the least amount of playoff experience of the top 6 teams in the East. All that to say: they face an uphill climb the rest of the way.
It’s telling, then, that the Raptors made the most marginal moves of the bunch. An admission that they might not have what it takes to truly compete this season. And also a sign that they don’t want to mess with the power of friendship that is helping this team buck expectations.
Looking Beyond
While the Raptors are dealing with pressure from the top of the conference, they’re also getting squeezed by the bottom.
The Wizards have officially ended their rebuild phase by acquiring Trae Young and Davis. Armed with an intriguing young group led by Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly, Canadian Kyshawn George, Tre Johnson, and whoever they add in this year’s draft, Washington looks primed to enter their competitive window next season, whatever that might entail.
The Charlotte Hornets, for their part, are putting the pieces together, too. They’re 8-2 in their last 10 games, have the best offense in the NBA in January, are gunning for a play-in spot, have a potential Rookie of the Year in Kon Knueppel, and just traded for Coby White. The Indiana Pacers have been decimated by injuries, but with Tyrese Haliburton expected back next season, they will likely return to being one of the best teams in the conference.
At the same time, looking at how those teams; the Wizards, Hornets and in-part the Jazz operated at this trade deadline gives us an insight as to what’s valued in the NBA now if you want to make a big move: good, healthy, expiring contracts and a surplus of pick capital to play with. A lack of the former hurt the Raptors from truly being players at this deadline. The amount of long-term money on their books has handicapped their ability to do anything meaningful to add to this group. That problem persists for them even into this off-season, but it’s a good reminder of how team-building has shifted as of late.
All that to say, the Raptors can’t stay idle for long. This summer will be a crucial opportunity to stave off stagnation. Armed with all of their first-round picks, Barrett’s expiring salary, Ingram’s defacto expiring (He has a player option in 2027-2028 he likely opts out of), and one more year off Immanuel Quickley’s deal, the Raptors will have what it takes to make a big splash or upgrade.
The offseason also gives them more options. There are too many hopeful teams in the middle of the season. Everyone likes their teams, every team believes they have a chance, and every chance to make a move comes at a hefty cost.
In theory, if they wanted to, the Raptors could re-ignite conversations for Sabonis or LaMelo or anyone else that piques their interest in the summer. Virtually all the same opportunities that were available to them at this deadline, will likely be available to them in the summer, if not even more.
If you were transaction hungry this week and feel disappointed by what the Raptors did (or didn’t), take this as a silver-lining:
This team is finally in a position to have these conversations. Their committment to Barnes as their franchise player has beared fruit. Their bet on Ingram has panned out. There is something to believe in, a rubric to work off of.
Take a look at the Memphis Grizzlies as an example. Four years ago, Ja Morant was verging on being one of the future faces of the league. Their young nucleus was “Fine in the West” and poised to make a run in the conference. Morant’s ascension stagnated, and with it, did the Grizzlies. They’ve now entered a rebuild.
Compare that to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who watched Shai Gilgeous-Alexander go from starter, to All-Star, to MVP. They watched Jalen Williams blossom into an All-NBA and All-Defense player at just the right time to help them win a championship.
Essentially: you’re only as good as your stars.
The biggest win for the Raptors is knowing that Barnes and Ingram are worth investing in. Fostering an enviroment where both stars can shine even brighter is the next step.
In that sense, the pragmatic approach works, for now. The self-aware Raptors know that they probably don’t have what it takes to make a meaningful run this season, clearly don’t want to risk ruining a good thing with the vibes of this group, and know there will be opportunities to come to take a swing.
But that next swing has to be the right one. And we’re inching closer to the point where they have to make it soon.
It seems the Raptors are headed for an interesting summer.
