Everything seems to be going rather swimmingly for Toronto at the moment. Second in the East, only 2.5 games back of the conference leading Cleveland Cavaliers, a 6 game lead on third place Atlanta Hawks, and the first 50 win season in franchise history with 8 games still remaining.
You know…if not for that pesky elbow problem…
But I’m not here to be doom and gloom about the present. I’m not even here to be doom and gloom about how scared I am that an elbow injury could disrupt what has been the most fun season in Raptors history.
Nope…I’m here to be doom and gloom about the summer of 2016.
After all, two of the most important members of the roster will soon enter free agency and one has to assume will be well sought after. And while Toronto has the means (full bird rights) to bring back DeMar DeRozan if he chooses to return, Bismack Biyombo is a completely different situation financially.
Biyombo has a player option which will almost assuredly be turned down, allowing him to enter free agency a year after coming to Toronto. Due to his current contract having been just one year in length, Toronto does not hold full bird rights on Biyombo and is therefore limited in their ability to exceed the cap in resigning him.
When I say limited in their ability to exceed the cap in resigning him, what I really mean is that they have no ability to exceed the cap in resigning Biyombo outside of exceptions such as the Mid-Level exception (see Larry Coon’s CBA Frequently Asked Questions for more information). Simply put, outside of his familiarity and hopefully his affection for the Raptors, they have absolutely no advantage over any other team when it comes to signing Biyombo as a free agent.
It’s this reason that I am fascinated by what Biyombo can get on the open market this summer. After all, we’re just eight months away from Bismack signing for just $2.8M, with a $2.9M player option for year two. So little was thought of Biyombo that Charlotte didn’t even offer him a qualifying offer last summer, choosing to make him an unrestricted free agent rather than have matching rights.
Amazing how much can change in eight months though.
Biyombo has had a steadying impact on Toronto’s bench, been a key contributor to a winning organization, becoming a rebounding and blocks machine, proven he can start when called upon, and even learned how to catch a basketball when it is passed his way.
Will one year be enough to move Biyombo from a free agent afterthought to a big money deal? I can’t help but think so. Just look at Biyombo’s numbers this season compared to some from a few of last summer’s free agent centre options.
| Rk | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS | ORtg | DRtg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 957 | 9.9 | 18.1 | .550 | 5.4 | .818 | 17.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 8.3 | 24.3 | 113 | 103 |
| 2 | 1654 | 4.4 | 8.0 | .543 | 6.3 | .635 | 18.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 6.5 | 12.8 | 118 | 101 |
| 3 | 2820 | 6.8 | 9.6 | .710 | 8.5 | .397 | 22.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 17.0 | 126 | 98 |
| 4 | 1348 | 7.0 | 13.9 | .508 | 3.3 | .647 | 16.5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 16.2 | 103 | 99 |
| 5 | 1638 | 7.3 | 13.6 | .535 | 4.0 | .772 | 12.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 17.6 | 117 | 104 |
| Rk | PER | TS% | FTr | TRB% | AST% | STL% | BLK% | TOV% | USG% | DWS | WS | WS/48 | DBPM | BPM | VORP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19.9 | .595 | .301 | 18.7 | 8.2 | 1.2 | 4.0 | 15.6 | 21.1 | 1.2 | 3.2 | .159 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 14.8 | .589 | .787 | 20.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 6.1 | 16.2 | 11.4 | 2.8 | 5.3 | .155 | 2.3 | -0.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 21.0 | .638 | .882 | 24.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 5.4 | 12.8 | 13.6 | 5.4 | 12.8 | .217 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.3 |
| 4 | 14.2 | .530 | .237 | 18.1 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 3.9 | 14.9 | 15.8 | 2.5 | 3.3 | .118 | 1.9 | -1.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 16.2 | .574 | .291 | 12.9 | 5.1 | 0.5 | 3.7 | 12.9 | 15.5 | 1.9 | 5.1 | .150 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
(My apologies that the stat headings did not load properly in these charts. Click on the attached links to see the original charts on Basketball Reference.)
Can you match the player with the contract?
- Four Years, $20M
- Four Years, $54M
- Four Years, $87M – Max Contract
- Four Years, $33M
And the sixth is Bismack Biyombo this season.
So here are the players we are looking at:
- Alexis Ajinca – 2014-15 season – Contract A
- Bismack Biyombo – 2015-16 season – contract to be determined
- DeAndre Jordan – 2014-15 season – Contract C
- Kosta Koufos – 2014-15 season – Contract D
- Robin Lopez – 2014-15 season – Contract B
Each player on this list has their own strengths and weaknesses, but Biyombo is far from being blown away by any of them when it comes to their stats. A high true shooting percentage, lowest usage percentage, highest block percentage, the second best rebounding percentage after DeAndre), a big win share per 48 minutes, and none of this even begins to touch on the intangibles and attitude that he has clearly brought to Toronto this season.
To make matters even worse, the salary cap this summer is set to increase by roughly $20M. So look again at the contracts that were handed out last summer, and increase each of them by 33 percent to get an idea of what contracts could look like in 2016.
Teams will just have too much money to spend this summer, and with the Raptors being financially limited there will likely be teams ready to jump on the chance to steal Biyombo in free agency. And at allegedly just 23 years of age, Biyombo likely has plenty of room to still grow as a player.
In order to keep Bismack around for next season and beyond, the Raptors will likely either need to hope for a home town discount or likely cut salary to open space.
And although I obviously want to keep him around next season, and I’ll be happy to see someone earn big money after taking a chance on Toronto (can only help our free agent recruitment), I think Bismack tops out as a high level bench centre who can occasionally start in case of emergency.
The money this summer is going to be incredibly entertaining to watch fly.
If this is it for Bismack though, I’m going to enjoy every stare and every finger wag that we get.
