How’s that Jonas Valanciunas break-out season going?

In what has become an annual tradition, October was filled with musings about the possibility of a Jonas Valanciunas breakout season. It is understandable; the kid is no longer a kid anymore, in year five of his NBA career and the first year of his four-year $64 million deal.

If Toronto wanted to make the leap to beat Cleveland come playoff time, Valanciunas would have to become a bigger piece on both ends. It is early, but here’s a breakout check in for everyone’s favourite Lithuanian centre.

The offence

Valanciunas’ strength has always been his offence. It isn’t a sight to behold, with those clunky pump fakes and predictable post moves, but it is effective. This year, there was some belief that JV was in line for more touches for a couple reasons: his skill should develop with age, and Dwane Casey may want to take some of the burden off of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.

So far, that narrative hasn’t played out. Valanciunas’ usage has gone down a bit, from 20.9% to 19.5%. He is getting more actual touches — 52.2 a game, up from 45.5 last year — and scoring at a higher per-possession rate when he gets post touches. But most of his production is fuelled by the season opener against Detroit, where he scored 32 points on 10-15 shooting. Since then, the numbers have dropped:

JV has taken a step back offensively outside of that Detroit game. He is shooting more outside shots, still cannot really pass out of the post, and has not been consistent.

To his credit, Jonas is excelling as a screener. He is second in screen assists — screens that lead directly to a score — per game with 6.6. A word of caution with this number though; I’m not sure how many of these screen assists come off a screen for a DeMar pull-up jumper. DeRozan only needs a bit of space to get those shots off, so if Jakob Poeltl or Bebe Nogueira is setting those screens, would it make much of a difference? I’m not sure.

The defence

The eye test is so damning for JV’s defence. He does not move his feet well, he jumps too often and flails his arms in nearly every situation. Rarely does Valanciunas look like he is comfortable in a situation, and a Raptors fan confident in JV’s defensive ability is a rarity.

He has improved in this area, mostly because of a scheme change starting last season that saw the Raptors slough off in pick and rolls instead of hedging hard. Valanciunas has his moments. In the first quarter against Miami, he shut off drives to the rim by Goran Dragic and forced the Heat point guard to dribble through the paint and find another option. It is a subtle defensive move, but it requires some awareness and positioning to snuff out a drive like that. When JV was not doing that, though, it was ugly.

You cannot be getting beat that easily. Hassan Whiteside is a good player, but not a post savant that should command a double-team. A five-year pro should be able to handle this. It was not an isolated incident either.

The on/off stats are intriguing too. Opponents shoot less at the rim when Valanciunas is in, but are shooting a higher percentage (64.9%) from within five feet when JV is in. The argument that rim protectors have an added benefit of being a deterrent bears out here, but Val may not be doing a great part at actually protecting the rim.

And here is where many would expect me to outline the amount of games played in this season. Valanciunas has played five games, so maybe it is too early to make a definitive statement about his abilities. But the guy has not shown us much so far and looks like the player we have seen for a couple years. At a certain point, we have to accept that players have reached their peak, even if we see flashes of potential.

Those playoff games against Miami will stand out as the ceiling for JV, but I won’t hold my breath. Andrea Bargnani had that 13 game hot streak too.