Well, the Raptors certainly didn’t fix the defensive vulnerabilities and bad habits they showed in the Suns game on Monday night, but man, these guys can put the ball in the hoop.
The Raps were one made 3-pointer away from shooting above 50% from both the field, and beyond 3 last night, good enough for a 60% effective field goal percentage and 65% true shooting percentage. Those are Spursian numbers. This is a Raptors team who made their bones on an elite defense and improving and enigmatic offence a year ago. Their defense is capable of being elite when they put it all together still, but last night they validated their rank as the 2nd best offence in the league.
Look, they were downright poor on defense at times, and looked downright brilliant on offence at other times, but it’s worth noting that neither the Raptors nor the Hawks are going to have offensive games like this on the regular. These teams shot the absolute hell out of the ball last night, nearly going 50-40-90 from the field as two combined teams! That’s something that the best individual shooters of all time struggle to do on their own. For two teams to sniff those numbers combined is insane. The Raptors went 51-48-85, sniffing unsustainably close to 50-50-90 shooting, and the Hawks shot 51-42-88, which is almost impossible to do while losing. Those are both record-breaking paces, indicative of a game with very good offense, ridiculously good shooting, and often very poor defense.
Having been at the Suns game on Monday night and watched this Hawks game on TV, there is one defensive breakdown that has resulted in at least a half-dozen wide open 3 point looks against the Raptors. It takes place with the first unit, when teams are trying to drive in from the top around a big at the elbow or using a high pick and roll. Lowry is diving on off of the strongside wing in an effort to either double team or gamble for the steal, and it has resulted in wide-open kick-outs to his man outside the break. I don’t know if this a schematic decision to take away the pick and roll, or if Lowry is freelancing for turnovers or covering for a breakdown in pick and roll coverage, but whatever the reason, it’s resulting in open shots. I’m a steadfast believer in the church of Lowry, but he seems to be opening up a lot of open shots for the opposition in this instance.
It’s not difficult to see how this Hawks team gave such fits to last year’s Pacers team that made it to the conference finals. They counter defense and size by spreading the floor with 3-point shooting at every position. Kent Bazemore, a point guard who played all of 4 minutes in this game, was the only Hawk not to attempt at least one 3-pointer last night. If you try and play a traditional big men against Al Horford, Pero Antic or Mike Scott, they will pull him 23 feet away from the basket, setting screens for Kyle Korver hand-off pull-up 3s or drive and kick opportunities out of high pick and rolls.
Valanciunas continued to score almost at will last night, continuing to improve his position and set-up his shot with his body and strength. But his indecision in whether to close out hard on shooters like Korver off of screens and find a defensive footing against the Hawks small ball lineup had him back on Casey’s bench for much of the second half. It’s difficult to argue otherwise in a victory that resulted from the 4th quarter unit that did play stepping up their game. Moving forward though, the staff needs to work with Valanciunas to figure out how to use him defensively against small ball lineups, as there is a world of potential to punish them for it on the other end. Not every team who plays small will have an otherworldly shooter like Korver for whom those high screen hand-off pull-ups are so dangerous.
Allowing a quick pull-up 3 with the defender fighting over the screen to challenge the shot is a safer option that having someone like Valanciunas blitz the ball handler on pick and rolls beyond the 3 point line. But it is tough to get much defensive productivity out of your big if he even has to respect the gravity of the shooter he’s guarding, spaced out at the 3-point line.
So who plays the nominal big spots for the Raptors when they try and guard small ball? This week that has proven to be a problem. Chuck Hayes has played well enough in stretches and possesses an elite NBA skill in his ability to guard post scorers. But against small ball lineups he loses that defensive advantage, is an offensive liability and his poor rebounding and close-out/recovery speed are a huge boost for opposing teams used to punting on rebounding with small ball groups.
Injuries and inexperience on the bench is dictating his role right now. With James Johnson’s ankle improving, it would be interesting to see him play much more power forward, with either the first or second unit, in the event that opposing teams go small. While Valanciunas is figuring out his defensive role against shooting bigs (and make no mistake, until Valanciunas is not a negative defender in a given scenario, Casey will not play him against those lineups) Amir Johnson is the ideal candidate for playing centre. The problem is his health. Playing through injuries takes a major toll on a player whose game relies so heavily on timing, energy and effort. Still, he is able to guard the perimeter, return to the paint and close back out to the corner or wing if necessary much smoother and effective than anyone else his size on the team.
There could be value in staggering his and Valanciunas’ minutes a little more, pulling out Johnson from the starting unit a little earlier to make him available to play centre with either the second unit, or for longer stretches of play in closing out the 2nd and 4th quarters.
Despite less than ideal play out of the 4 and 5 position at times, the bench unit was much more of a help than a hindrance again last night. Vasquez scored 12 consecutive points for the Raptors to start off the 4th quarter, looking much more like the savvy offensive player of last season than the shot-happy player we’ve seen at times to start the season. Lou Williams continued to score at a 6th man of the year-like pace, putting up another 22 points against the team that gave up on him for cap space and savings.
Lou Williams end of quarter possessions continue to be the most reliably satisfying moment of life for Raptors fans. James Johnson, who was the Raps most reliable defender on the floor last night, aside, the bench unit looks vulnerable defensively. But they’re sneaky not only because of how many points they’ve been putting up with what could certainly be difficult to sustain shooting percentages from guys like Williams. It’s also the points off of turnovers. The bench got a notable number of their 52 points out of transition as a result of their 5 steals and 5 blocks. Turning turnovers into points can be a great equalizer on defense, and the bench unit, along with Lowry who has logged minutes in the last two games with them, have seemed to get points in just that fashion whenever the team really needs it.
This team continues to be super satisfying to watch. They don’t look as dominant as the Heat or Spurs teams of years past by any means. They’re plucky, they’re tough, they’re deep and they’re smart, but let’s not get carried away. But they are a team who is capable of winning against any opponent on any given night and, as they continue to prove in games that could otherwise get away from them, they are a team that is determined and invested in getting that win every time they take the floor.
DeRozan looked great at times, and cold at others, but he gave the team exactly what they needed with 27 points, going 9 for 9 from the free throw line on 50% shooting. Lou Williams and General Greivis put up 22 and 21 points apiece, earning deep fourth quarter minutes. And Kyle Lowry continues to impose his will whenever the team needs it most. Lowry simply will not allow bad stretches of play to take over the game or the teams attitude. It’s crazy how badly this dude wants to win every night, and how much he is able to make that happen. Lowry and Lou Williams are threatening to become semi-religious figures in Raptors fandom. Let’s all try and keep our heads about us, improve the defense, sustain the shooting and keep the momentum going into Friday night.
