Jonas Valanciunas and the Long Game

This was supposed to be the year that Jonas turned the corner. He’d finally grasp the intricacies of the NBA’s complicated defensive schemes enough for Dwane Casey to trust him when it mattered most. His teammates would realize the value of having a talented and efficient big man in the post and give him more touches down low and basketball-crazed Lithuanians would cheer triumphantly as their young Jonas grew into a man.

So far, this has not been the case. He’s certainly a better player than he was last season but the leap that many expected has instead been more of a hop.

So, basically, his rebounding has improved, he’s more efficient, he’s fouling less and notably he’s both getting to the line more and shooting very well once he gets there. But, the two statistical areas where many fans expected to see the biggest leap have actually decreased in his third season: points and minutes.

“Just Give Me the Damn Ball!” – Keyshawn Johnson

Aside from his less-than-stellar pump fake no one really complains about Jonas’s offensive game. He’s increased his efficiency, he’s relying less on his running hook and he plays within his means. So, why isn’t he getting more shots?

Valanciunas’s usage rate (18.5 to 18.2) and touches are both down this season. According to SportsVU tracking technology Jonas is touching the ball 6.5 times less a game than he did last season. He ranks 17^th among big men at 5.7 close touches a game (touches originating within 12 feet of the basket, excluding drives), which is basically in line with the 5.8 close touches he received a game last season. He gets about the same amount of close touches as Kenneth Faried and Derrick Favors. While this certainly isn’t bad company, neither of those guys are known for their post games.

In terms of shots, the team usually involves Jonas early and then his attempts drop off dramatically as the game goes on.

This narrative has held true even during his best offensive outputs of the season. In his career high 27-point game against Phoenix Valanciunas shot 6-7 from the field and 5-6 from the free throw line in the first half. In the fourth quarter, however, he only had one field goal attempt in three minutes of play. In recent back-to-back 18-point performances against Denver and Cleveland, Jonas put up a paltry four second half shot attempts total, including going a combined 0-1 from the field in the fourth quarter. This second half drop off brings us to the second issue at hand, crunch time minutes.

“You Gotta Have Faith” – Limp Bizkit quoting George Michael

The narrative is old news by now: Dwane Casey doesn’t trust Jonas’s defense enough to keep him on the floor late in the game. While you can’t argue with the results, one has to wonder whether this is the best move for the team’s long-term growth? According to Grantland columnist and basketball savant Zach Lowe the answer is no and I tend to agree with him:

Time to start investing some real 4Q minutes in Valanciunas, though. He's too good to be a crunch time afterthought, will pay off later.

— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) November 27, 2014

I love winning just as much as the next guy and this is all very exciting but it’s time to start playing the long game. Valanciunas’s fourth quarter minutes are actually up from four to seven minutes a game in the wake of the Derozan injury but the trend generally remains the same. He isn’t getting fourth quarter shots and he’s not seeing the floor in crunch time. In their last two games he rode the pine in overtime against New York and he didn’t see the floor in the final quarter of the Orlando game.

Final Thoughts:

So, what to make of all of this? It’s easy to say ‘so what’ and move on. The Raptors are the best team in the East and Valanciunas’s development certainly isn’t paramount to the success of the team. Nevertheless, when it comes to developing young players and performing at an optimal level, confidence matters.

The team is kicking ass on offense to the tune of 114 points per 100 possessions, so yeah, admittedly I’m splitting hairs here… but hear me out. While the Raptors are elite at protecting the ball, getting to the charity stripe and hitting their free throws, they’re only slightly above average in terms of team field goal percentage. This is because a lot of their shots are going to low percentage guys like Vasquez and Williams. Valanciunas is sixth of the team in field goal attempts per game. Getting him more shots would not only improve team efficiency, it would also keep him engaged in other important areas, such as defense and rebounding. The team obviously doesn’t need to fret too much over having the second best offensive rating in the league but if you can make a well-oiled machine even better, why not go for it?

So far as minutes are concerned it’s a matter of preparing your best players for the big moments. Unlike like many of their top-tier competitors in the West, the Raptors are in a position where they can afford to sacrifice a game or two for the sake of the bigger picture. In my mind, Jonas is clearly not only a crucial building block but also one of the team’s five best players. When the playoffs come around the Raptors are going to need his size and toughness to beat good teams. The question is whether sitting him during crunch time is the best way to ensure that he’ll be ready when the time comes?