With the Raptors locked into either the third or fourth seed, they’re all but guaranteed to face either the Bucks or Wizards.
Although the Raptors are sliding bass ackwards into the postseason, one silver lining remains: they’re still in the East.
By virtue of clinching their second-straight Atlantic Division crown, the Raptors will finish with no lower than the fourth seed (although home-court advantage is not guaranteed). And given that the Bulls haven’t exactly run away with the three seed, the Raptors are almost guaranteed to place in the 3-vs-6 or 4-vs-5 bracket. That means it’s either the Milwaukee Bucks or the Washington Wizards.
Luckily for the Raptors, they’ve both played poorly since the All-Star break. The Bucks’ offense has wilted after dealing Brandon Knight for Michael Carter-Williams, while the Wizards are pulling out plays that their head coach has never seen before. All in all, the Raptors are struggling, but so is their competition.
So who is the question remains: who is the better match-up for the Raptors? Wizards or Bucks? Let’s discuss.
Washington Wizards
Round up the storylines associated with the Raptors this season: coaching shortcomings, frustrating offense, guard-heavy attack, lack of player development, not enough touches for the bigs, a blazing hot start followed by a thunderous crash to earth. All of that applies to the Washington Wizards.
Coaching
Raptors fans are displeased with Dwane Casey, but that pales in comparison to the venomous contempt Wizards fans have for Randy Wittman. It’s not just that Wittman is set in his ways. It’s more that Wittman’s coaching philosophies are fossils from the past, where the thinking of “take every open shot” is abjectly applied without consideration of “why” or “information.” That’s why the Wizards have attempted the fourth-most midrange shots in the league this season, because keeping company with the Lakers, Knicks and Hornets in 2015 is something every playoff team should aspire to.
Offense
Like the Raptors, the Wizards have also gone through a mid-season slump, which tracks back to their offense. After starting out 31-15, the Wizards are just 13-17 since. Their underlying numbers highlights a worrying trend: the Wizards’ offense ranks 25th. Over that time, they’ve also dealt with injuries to Bradley Beal, Paul Pierce and Nene Hilario, which is three-fifths of their starting five.
As most Wizards fans (like Twitter broseph Conor Dirks of Truth About It) will tell you, the problem with the Wizards’ offense is rooted in both system and personnel.
The Wizards have an endless plethora of mid-90s style bigs with the likes of Nene, Marcin Gortat, Kevin Seraphin, Kris Humphries and in a pinch, Drew Gooden. The commonality among those names is that there isn’t a single big who can shoot the three-ball. With John Wall also not being much of a threat to shoot from deep, spacing is a constant logistical hurdle. That problem is further compounded by the fact that they’re not particularly deep on the wing and the two decent ones they have (Pierce and Beal) have often battled injuries. Voodoo magic (and Wall’s playmaking) temporarily repatriated the corpses of Rasual Butler, Garrett Temple and Martell Webster, but that’s proven to be unsustainable.
But while the roster is somewhat limited, they’re also talented, and much of it goes unused. Gortat, for example, is a strong pick-and-roll player, but he’s routinely benched in the fourth (ayy Jonas). And when the Wizards do use their bigs, it’s mostly in post-ups. But those sets are mostly unimaginative, used as the ends rather than the means to initiating motion on offense. Their post-ups also take a long time to set up and the team shoots a bottom-10 percentage out of those sets.
Moreover, despite running a guard-oriented offense, the Wizards don’t really score well out of the pick-and-roll. For example, the Wizards average just 0.7 points per possession when the ball-handler shoots out of a pick-and-roll, which is the fourth-lowest rate in the league. Some of that is attributable to Wall’s jumpshooting, but most of it stems from the Wizards’ love for midrange shots instead of hurdling into the paint and attacking the basket. Then again, there’s not a lot of floor spacing, so that’s a factor as well.
The one thing the Wizards do well is find spot-up shooters. They rank 12th in points per spot up attempt, which is a testament to Wall’s playmaking. His proficiency has been discussed and dissected many times over, so I’ll just direct you to this piece by Grantland’s Kirk Goldsberry. For the lazy, here’s a taste from Goldsberry’s piece. Wall is particularly adept at creating corner 3-point looks.
But, despite their success with spot ups, the Wizards run very few of them. Specifically, they have run the third-fewest spot-ups in the league. Randy Wittman, everybody!
Defense
What the Wizards do well is defend. They’ve been solid in that regard all season and even throughout their midseason slide, Washington’s defense has remained robust as the seventh-best defense in the league by defensive rating.
For the most part, the Wizards play a very conservative style of defense that tries to limit the need for help defenders. They force action towards the sidelines and funnel drivers to their bigs, who are all relatively solid on defense. Nene, especially, when he is on his game, is a difference-maker. As is Gortat, who is a strong rim protector and a good rebounder.
However, surprisingly, the Raptors have managed an offensive rating of 109.1 against the Wizards this season, which is in line with what the Raptors have averaged all season. Lou Williams has been a big part of that, averaging 19.6 points per game. The Wizards rarely double and trusting Lowry, DeRozan and even Valanciunas to isolate has shown to be effective.
Match-ups
The main one here is Wall vs. Lowry. In three contests this year, Wall has outperformed Lowry, especially in the assists department. But Lowry has all three wins and he should be well-rested after taking weeks off to let his back heal. Either way, it should be a fun matchup. The key, of course, would be defense. Can Lowry keep Wall from getting to the basket without needing help defenders to rotate? That’s the key to stopping Washington.
There’s also the matter of Bradley Beal and Paul Pierce. They’re tough two-way wings who can do a bit of everything offensively. We know Terrence Ross can’t guard Pierce, so the Raptors would likely need to turn to James Johnson for the assignment. However, putting Johnson on the floor introduces spacing issues. As for Beal, DeRozan will need to run him off the 3-point line, where is most dangerous (40.7 percent) and to encourage him to take a step inside the arc, where he’s shooting 34.6 percent. Offensively, DeRozan should have the size to post up on Beal, which is a huge plus.
As for the bench, the Raptors should have the decided advantage. The Wizards have had some nice pieces, but their bench rotation has been in flux. Assuming that Washington cuts down their rotation to eight or nine, that likely leaves Butler, Humphries/Seraphin (watch out for the hook shot) and Ramon Sessions to round out the eight, while Toronto counters with James Johnson, Patrick Patterson and Williams. Patterson, in particular, will be an important determinant to the Raptors’ success. Washington really struggles to guard stretch fours and Patterson will be needed to open up space in the paint.
Finally, coaching should be a toss-up. Will Wittman figure out a way to expose the Raptors’ rather obvious defensive flaws? Your guess is as good as mine. As for Casey, the plan should be to try to contain Wall without leaving their shooters open. It’s a tricky task, but ICEing pick-and-rolls would be a start.
For more on the Wizards, check out these two pieces from Truth About It: here, here.
The Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks, like the Wizards, have been a rather different team in 2015 than they were in 2014. The main difference is the swap of Brandon Knight for Michael Carter-Williams. Rumor has it that Jason Kidd saw a lot of himself in MCW and management decided to spring for him and to sell high on Knight. While the deal was made with future considerations in mind, it has certainly set the Bucks back in the interim. The Bucks are just 8-16 since the trade deadline.
Coaching
For as much flack as Jason Kidd gets, he’s shown to be a pretty clever coach in his first two seasons in the league. He’s built two smallball teams between Brooklyn and Milwaukee, the last of which beat the Raptors in the playoffs last season. He certainly has a vision for how his teams should play and for the most part, he’s found success with somewhat limited means. He might not be the best X’s and O’s manager, but his intuition is sharp.
Offense
The Bucks struggle on offense. It’s similar to Washington’s problem in that they don’t have enough shooters, but they also lack a dynamic point guard on-par with Wall’s brilliance. They weren’t very good even with Knight running the show and now they’ve slipped to third-worst with MCW at the helm. They flat-out cannot score.
But that doesn’t mean they’re not dangerous.
When healthy, the Bucks will try to play four-out, with one center (Zaza Pachulia or John Henson) in the post. That gives the illusion of spacing with either Jared Dudley or Ersan Ilyasova at the four, while Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton soak up most of the minutes on the wing with either Jerryd Bayless or MCW at point. There’s not a lot of ball handling in the group and it’s easy to clog the paint against them. Aside from Middleton (who is a dead-eye shooter), they don’t run too many spot-ups, and rank 27th in 3-point attempts post trade deadline.
But they will try to make it work by creating extra possessions. Their defense is designed to force turnovers (more below) and they have an endless supply of long wings that can crash the offensive glass. They know they can’t score efficiently with their possessions, so the other option is to just get extra cracks at scoring. They rank fourth in offensive rebounding percentage and first in forcing turnovers.
However, the Bucks also return the favor by committing a tonne of turnovers themselves. They lead the league in turnover percentage, which isn’t surprising when two sophomores in Giannis and MCW are doing most of the ball-handling.
Defense
For a young team, the Bucks are an organized, ruthless and disciplined defensive squad. Full points to Jason Kidd and assistant Sean Sweeney’s system. They rank third in defensive efficiency, although that number has dipped to 12th post trade deadline.
The shorthand explanation for the Bucks’ success is their length and athleticism. They turn the screws on ball handlers and hound them into making poor decisions. They pressure the ball hard, which limits the ball-handlers’ ability to score or drive. Making passes is also difficult, because the Bucks form walls with long 6-foot-7 defenders. That leads to higher and trickier passes, and the Bucks love to jump passing lanes. Altogether, they force the most turnovers in the league.
But length and athleticism is just what powers their defense. What empowers them, is their scheme, communication and intelligence. They love to hedge hard and pressure the ball, but they’re also disciplined and don’t send too much help. They also know to rotate out to the weakside shooter, which is made easier by their quickness and length. They also communicate well and are happy to switch, which, again, is made easier by their size. Here’s a compilation of their defense going to work against Portland’s vaunted offense. It’s a thing of beauty.
I can’t really do the Bucks’ defense justice in three paragraphs. For more, read K.L. Chouinard’s piece on Bucksketball and Eric Nehm’s piece in Milwaukee Magazine.
Match-ups
It should be clear from the breakdown about, but the Bucks are a nightmare match-up for the Raptors, even in their weakened state.
Here’s a stat for you: in three games, DeRozan is a combined 6-for-33 against the Bucks with just 14 free throw attempts. Middleton, Antetokounmpo and Dudley have completely bottled up DeRozan. And yes, DeRozan is on a roll and he looks to be healthy and back to the form he showed last season. But what kind of defender does DeRozan struggle against? The smart, strong and long Jimmy Butler-type. The Bucks have that in spades. They’ll take away his driving lanes, contest his midrange jumpers and swipe at his wonky dribble.
As for Lowry, Kidd exposed one of his biggest flaws in last year’s playoffs: he’s short. Now he’ll have a 6-foot-6 defender in MCW on him and a steady stream of traps to contend with. It’s simple physics. That takes away from his passing lanes and it will be tough for Lowry to drive. In two games against Milwaukee this season, Lowry has shot a combined 14-for-35 from the field with just eight assists to six turnovers. It’s going to be hell.
Then you move to Valanciunas. Sure, he has a size advantage over everyone other than Pachulia, but the Bucks will send doubles his way and Valanciunas has shown to be a pretty poor passer out of the low block. Regardless, he could probably get his on the offensive glass (the Bucks aren’t great at defensive rebounding), but there’s also a good chance of Casey going small. In three games against the Bucks, Valanciunas has played 25, 21 and 19 minutes.
So that’s the three main options on offense taken out of the equation. Sure, the Bucks will also struggle to score, but if it comes down to Williams and Vasquez manufacturing offense, do you feel confident in that? And if it turns into a battle for possessions, will the Raptors be tough enough to out-hustle the Bucks? Can they hustle back on defense in transition?
Verdict: Gimme the ‘Zards
The Wizards are definitely the better team, but the Bucks are match-up nightmare. Plus, as someone who covers the team, I want no part of a playoff series filled with 80-75 slugfests with the Bucks on NBA TV. I’d rather see Wall vs. Lowry.
Statistics, standings and rankings should be accurate through Saturday, April 6
