Fan Duel Toronto Raptors

Free Agency Opening Night Live Blog, Q&A

DeMarre Caroll is in. Could Wes Matthews or LaMarcus Aldridge follow?

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The great thing about the Toronto Raptors under Masai Ujiri is that news comes out of nowhere. Not only is it a lot of fun that way, it also lends credence to the idea that he knows what he’s doing and runs an incredibly tight ship. There are always leaks, and the Raptors continuing to surprise speaks to a front office operating under a consistent and well-understood voice and mission.

As a blogger – and a news writer in my day job – it sucks. It makes things impossible to prepare for, and it makes the Raptors’ news cycle entirely reactionary instead of proactive. Which is fine, and still fun, it just requires something like an opening day live post so we can sort through the mess of rumors and notes that may or may not come this evening.

I’ll be hanging around here until about 11, or whenever the Raptors sign Aaron Craft and my heart explodes out of ecstasy.

Wednesday Night News

Not much doing so far, but Carroll said in an interview that the fan-base and a larger offensive role were keys in his decision to sign with the Raptors. Those quotes and quick analysis can be found here.

*The Raptors are said to be “locked in battle” with the Dallas Mavericks over unrestricted free agent Wesley Matthews. Read more about that throughout this post and in our story evaluating the potential of a DeRozan-Matthews-Carroll wing grouping. In short: It could work, but it will be weird. Weird is fun. Weird is good. Embrace the weird. And I’m all for acquiring the best talent available and figuring out fit after the fact, if the deal is right – positive-EV is positive-EV, and rosters and roles are fluid.

*The Raptors’ pursuit of Matthews may be slowed some, as the Sacramento Kings have unloaded salary to chase Matthews, Rajon Rondo, and/or Monta Ellis.

What We Already Knew

*The biggest news to begin free agency was that the Raptors had unexpectedly secured a meeting with free agent power forward LaMarcus Aldridge. A max-contract player and four-time All-Star, Aldridge would stand as perhaps the biggest free agent signing in franchise history. Aldridge is favoring the Spurs, was impressed by the Suns and Rockets, didn’t like what the Lakers were selling, and still has meetings with Toronto, Dallas, and New York. The Raptors would seem to still be lightly in the mix, and there are paths to carving out a sign-and-trade that may work, but Aldridge seems a bit of a long-shot following the signing of DeMarre Carroll.

*Oh, yeah: The Raptors signed Carroll to a four-year, $60-million deal. Zarar broke the signing down and here’s my quick take: This is a good deal, and I like it a lot. Carroll fills several needs – shooting, versatile perimeter defense, toughness – and I’m fine with paying him nearly to age 33. His player type doesn’t age poorly, and the Raptors have a terrific sport science team to allay any concerns about Carroll’s late-season injuries. Carroll has a terrific backstory and it’s nice to see a hard-working player finally carve out a payday for himself. And don’t scoff at the money – $15 million is a lot, but it’s not a major premium above market value, and the rising cap situation will make $15 million seem more like $11 million from 2016 and beyond. That’s not to say money should be thrown out without regard for future flexibility, but evaluating Carroll’s deal under old-market expectations would do yourself and your evaluation a disservice. It’s perhaps a slight overpay, but if you like the player and fit – and I do – it’s entirely justifiable.

*The Raptors may not be done at just Carroll. With a charge led by DeMar DeRozan, the Raptors have a meeting scheduled with Wesley Matthews where they’ll reportedly try to sell him on a DeRozan-Matthews-Carroll triumvirate. Matthews’ injury history is a shade more worrisome than Carroll’s, as the bounce-back rate from Achilles injuries is uninspiring in recent years, but he would be another solid two-way addition. With 96 minutes to split between the shooting guard and small forward, plus the potential for three-wing smaller lineups, Matthews can fit. The Raptors would almost surely need to work a sign-and-trade or unload salary to land him – he’s said to want something in the neighborhood of Carroll’s deal, though there may be some wiggle room there. It seems weird, but weird is good.

*Luke Ridnour is surprisingly still a Raptor. I did my best to briefly explain why he was dealt four times in a week and what he means to the Raptors. He could impact any sign-and-trade scenario for Aldridge or Matthews.

*Amir Johnson signed a two-year, $24-million deal with the Boston Celtics. There’s no way around the fact that this kind of stinks as a fan. But it’s entirely justified – $12 million was too much for Johnson on this team, even if the second year is a team-friendly non-guaranteed that stands as a major trade chip next summer. And Johnson deserved the chance to cash in, in a place where he can help lead a group of young bigs and continue to receive meaningful playing time for a potential playoff team. There’s a great “Goodbye Amir” thread in the forums, and allow me this brief tangent: Amir’s the man. Few Raptors have ever embraced being Raptors like he has, and few have truly made Toronto their home as he did. He’s fourth in franchise history in games played, eighth in minutes, third in rebounds, second in blocks, first in field-goal percentage, fourth in win shares, and so on. All of that is important, and he was criminally underrated for the first several years of his tenure, but I doubt a year or two from now fans will remember the help defense, the pick-and-roll finishing, or the ridiculously effective screens. The image of Amir laughing, Raptors logo shaved in his head, arms full of Drake albums, doing the Zombie walk is the one we’ll think of.

Canada Day Q&A

I opened the floor on Twitter to some questions. I’ll answer them throughout the night. It’s better to get at me on Twitter because I’ll probably check that more frequently than the comments. Keep checking back.

Because it was the playoffs. And then the draft. And now free agency. And I’ve had bachelor parties out the wazoo. And weddings. And trying to cram in time with Jen before she took off for the summer. I was here that one day you came by looking for Josh but I was asleep and didn’t hear the door. Miss you, too, Fab.

I wouldn’t worry about it too much yet, not until the rest of the offseason plays out. If the roster finished like this, Wright backs up 1/2, Ross backs up 2/3, and Johnson only sees some time as a reserve combo-forward. A lot can still happen, but Johnson’s going to get crunched, for sure.

Probably not full-time. It’s asking a lot of his body and entering the year without a more traditional power forward would show an uncharacteristically narrow focus and ignorance of the value of flexibility. I’d expect the team to add at least a backup-quality power forward, though I think they’d be OK starting Patterson.

Value for the money is a tough way to phrase it. Cap space isn’t made equal, and if the Raptors felt their space this summer was more valuable than next, and best spent on a second-tier guy early rather than missing out on a top guy and being left with their…you know, in their hands, then it’s tough to fault. Based on the current market, the worst thing you could say about Carroll’s deal is that it’s a slight overpay and a bit of an injury risk, but I’m not in that camp. It’s a good deal, and short of Matthews, I’m not sure I see another free agent that’s a better fit at the price.

Yup, it’s possible, but it’d take some gymnastics. The Raptors would need to renounce all of their rights, waive Ridnour, trade Patterson and probably still make a move or two at the margins. Right now by some back of the napkin math, they could get to about $9.7 million in cap space, so they’d need to clear about $9 million to sign him into cap space or send out some salary in a sign-and-trade.

As far as I can tell, Aldridge didn’t cancel any meetings. It could be a short one as a courtesy, but he didn’t make meetings just to fluff teams. He wanted to hear what the Raptors had to say, and the very WORST that can be said about it is that it was a worthwhile long-shot. It sends a really nice message to the rest of the league that Toronto is a viable destination for a max player.

Amir Johnson is Christian. Criminally underrated for most of his WWE tenure, he left to take a chance at being appreciated like a star in a slightly worse situation (TNA). That’s not entirely fair to Amir or the Celtics, but it’s the best I could come up with AND leaves the window open for an Amir victory lap.

A lot to unpack here. I wouldn’t necessarily say Matthews means DeRozan’s gone – DeRozan is reportedly a part of the pitch. Ross going back in a sign-and-trade or heading elsewhere in a subsequent deal would make sense, though. But it’s not a certainty by any means – you’ll need four or five wings in the course of the season.

There are a ton of free agents still. If Carroll’s the only Wednesday deal that gets done, they have a need for a quality power forward, a backup center, and a third point guard. I think after the weekend, I’ll double back with a look at the remaining names and search out my “2015 Aminu,” who I’ll bang the drum one all offseason.

I like Cory Joseph a lot but he’s superfluous with the Wright pick. O’Quinn’s actually still a nice flier as a backup center, I think he’s got some upside left to grow into. Given those options, I’d probably take Matthews, but I’d understand someone thinking Harris is a better buy on the upswing versus Matthews in his prime years off injury.

Hell. Yes. I’d love to see it – and more so with Matthews inserted for Johnson – at least for small stretches. Patterson isn’t ideal as the small five, and Amir Johnson would have fit that role nicely, but I think it’d be passable for very small stretches. Even with Jonas Valanciunas at the five, a three-wing lineup could prove effective. I’m all for trying anything, and three switchable wing defenders is a nice option to have.

Maybe, but with the contract Millsap signed, I’m not sure luring him from Atlanta was ever all that realistic. 3-and-D guys are at a real premium (even Kyle Singler got 5/25), so “3-and-D wing, a solid third big, and maintained flexibility” might be more realistic.

Best I can figure – and Dan Hackett will correct me for tweaks if I’m wrong – is that the Raptors could work their way into $9.7 million in cap space by waiving Ridnour and renouncing everyone’s rights. (Note: Delon Wright will almost surely sign for 120% of scale but until that point, his cap hold is just scale. It also assumes the latest report of a cap jump to $69M (nice) is accurate.) Here’s what I’ve got:   rapscap

Getting hot up in The 6.

You’re getting realllllly complicated here. I think that’s beyond what’s realistic, though in strictly mathematics terms, I think it’d be possible. Waive Ridnour, renounce all rights, and find a taker for Ross, and that gets you the approximate $12M for Matthews. You’d have to lose at least one of Lowry or DeRozan or get incredibly creative, and you’re asking a lot from Portland. So, yeah…this ain’t happening.

Off the top of my head: Josh Smith, David West, Brandon Bass, Carlos Boozer, Jordan Hill, Ed Davis, Thomas Robinson, Darrell Arthur, Kyle O’Quinn. Your mileage is going to vary with a lot of those names, but it’s not a flashy class by any means. I like Arthur and O’Quinn as potentially cheap fliers, Robinson may have some upside, and I think we all still love Boss Davis. But uhh, there’s not going to be a flashy play here.

Nope, I don’t think so. They haven’t given up depth so much here – they’re a little thin in the frontcourt but they have a pair of solid guards, three or four useful wings, and starting post players. There’s work to be done but the Raptors’ cap sheet is far from top-loaded. And it’s July 1.

I like West for the toughness, leadership, and mid-range game, but if he walked away from a $12-million option, that tells me he’ll be priced out of a comfortable range for Toronto. At the mid-level, he could be a solid addition. And Matthews…well, yeah, the Achilles recovery history isn’t great. But he’s already back in the gym and everyone speaks the world of his work ethic.

Not at all, man. It may have been a long-shot, but look at what happened with Phoenix – they had an unrealistic meeting and are now thought to be in the mix. And it sends a nice signal to future free agents, because a max-level free agent considered Toronto a year after Kyle Lowry decided to stay here. It doesn’t hurt.

I don’t think making a splash for the sake of it ever makes sense, and it doesn’t seem Ujiri’s style. Stars move the needle and taking swings at them is always worthwhile, but I don’t believe Toronto’s in a spot to pass on the second-tier guys to play for a superstar, if that’s what you mean. As long as a move is positive-EV, I’m on board with it, and I’m all for adding talent and figuring out fit after the fact.

They’re a tough comparison given that their games aren’t really similar. Losing Amir sucks as a fan – he’s been the heart of the Raptors and the favorite player of hardcore fans for years. His time had come here, I think, and I’m glad he’s been able to cash in with a young team he’ll be able to help push forward. Carroll should be a fan-favorite, too – his story is awesome and he’s a hell of a worker.

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