By this point, Norman Powell has obviously won your heart. One of the breakout stars of Las Vegas Summer League, Powell has turned in three productive games, surprising many with his ability to dominate on the offensive end, and confirming that he can be an active and disruptive defender.
He’s now averaging 19.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.7 steals, and 1.3 blocks while shooting 59.5 percent, and he’s hit 2-of-5 from outside, his biggest perceived weakness. He’s throwing down everything and helped carry the Raptors to a win on Monday even without point guard Delon Wright in the lineup. He’s stood out since the tournament opened, handling the ball far more than expected in the opener and earning the full player breakdown treatment following his game two performance.
If you want to know more about Powell the player, I recommend clicking that last link, which goes really in depth. As a quick refresher, he’s a great straight-line driver who uses his length and his strength well to initiate contact and finish better than his 6-foot-4 height would suggest he can. He’s smart moving around picks and times his ridiculous first step well to catch defenders off balance or on their heels. He gets some tunnel vision once on the move, but he’s a willing enough passer in the pick-and-roll, and he recognizes safety valve opportunities when he meets traffic inside. Defensively, he uses his near-7-foot wingspan to stay in front of ball-handlers and poke balls free, and his athleticism allows him to make some unexpected blocks and savvy steals. Because he’s quick laterally, uses his length well, and has a strong lower half, it’s not inconceivable that he could help guard three positions at the next level.
The reasons he slid to No. 46 in the draft are fairly obvious: He’s not a great shooter, and he’s a 22-year-old senior. The shot doesn’t look bad at all, and he opened his senior year flashing improvement before regressing. Some organizations believe shooting is one of the more developable skills, and if the Raptors can work to make him even a remote corner threat, then his five-man lineup possibilities expand.
That’s getting ahead of ourselves. Powell should be playing well in Summer League, because he’s either more experienced, more physically developed, or more talented than most of the competition he’s facing. Plenty of players have had Summer League success and failed in the NBA – it’s a small sample, and it comes against weaker competition. In Powell’s case, a 2-of-5 mark from outside means almost nothing, and LVSL opponents haven’t afforded him the opportunity to prove he can finish against NBA length and cut into the teeth of a sophisticated NBA defense. Failure is far more telling in this environment than success is, which is why I’ve tried to focus on specific skills in the player breakdowns rather than just performance. And Powell’s impressing.
His north-south, bowling-ball style probably won’t work against starting-caliber players, but it should be effective enough to draw fouls against bench units. And his defensive versatility and on-ball play should make him a useful piece down in the rotation.
To be entirely clear, none of Powell’s performance suggests he’s going to be a star or even a top-eight rotation player. He’s been very good, and it’s encouraging, enough that you’d be justified in thinking he’s deserving of a roster spot, as I do. Don’t get carried away, though, and start suggesting he’s better than DeMar DeRozan or Terrence Ross. Rookies, by and large, struggle, and Powell will face an adjustment period in the NBA if he makes it.
But as a 12th man of sorts – he’d probably be ahead of Bruno Caboclo and Bebe Nogueira on the depth chart, and I’m not sure Ronald Roberts’ partial guarantee means anything as far as the regular season goes – he could have a place. If the Raptors don’t want to run two-point guard sets, Powell’s path to playing time is more clear, otherwise he’d likely be the fifth or sixth wing in the rotation.
PG: Lowry, Joseph, Wright
SG: DeRozan, Ross, Joseph, Wright, (Powell)
SF: Carroll, Ross, Johnson, (Powell), Caboclo
PF: Patterson, Scola, Carroll, Johnson
C: Valanciunas, Biyombo, Nogueira
For a guy taken midway through the second round, that’s still a good landing spot, and teams are generally thrilled to find any useful player with a second-round pick. I entered LVSL thinking he had an inside track on one of the team’s final two roster spots. Barring injury, I’d be shocked if he hasn’t done enough to lock one down yet.
That would mean the Raptors need to sign Powell at some point, and I’d recommend doing so on a three- or four-year contract.
As a second round pick, Powell is not bound by the rookie wage scale. That gives the Raptors two options to sign him: Use a minimum salary exception to sign him to a one- or two-year deal, or use a piece of their roughly $2.5 million in available cap space to sign Powell beyond two years.
It may be reactionary to suggest, but I favor using cap space to land him on a three-year deal, especially if he’s amenable to numbers close to the minimum, or a non-guaranteed third year. Going three years gives the Raptors Powell’s Bird rights, helping protect the Raptors from a predatory offer sheet when he reaches restricted free agency (note that signing him to a four-year deal is unfavorable, as he’d be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the contract). A three-year deal at the minimum would pay Powell $2.4 million in total, and would cost them $525,093 of their remaining $2.59 million in cap space, leaving them with one open roster spot (not including Roberts).
I’d also consider adding additional guaranteed salary for 2015-16, since the Raptors have cap space they seem unlikely to use. The hope would be that by adding salary in year one, Powell becomes more amenable to non-guaranteed second and third years.
There are other options, too, like guaranteeing the first two years at the minimum to secure two non-guaranteed seasons in years three and four, and the team may value a cheap fourth season over maintaining his RFA status after year three. That’s a tough trade-off to navigate for Powell, as he’ll be in his prime at age 25 in his fourth year – his RFA rights would be great, but a season at the peak of his development curve, at $1.1 million after the cap explodes, is enticing.
But a lot of this depends on whether the team feels the need to offer anything but the minimum in non-guarantees, how high they are on the player, and what Powell’s risk preference and willingness to go overseas are.
Powell may prefer a shorter deal if the Raptors aren’t willing to offer guaranteed money in year two and three, but the Raptors hold most of the leverage here. K.J. McDaniels took a risk in signing his one-year, non-guaranteed retention offer with the Philadelphia 76ers last season, making him a restricted free agent this summer, but that’s incredibly risky. The Raptors are only required to offer Powell a one-year, $525,093 contract without any guarantee to retain his rights, but he’s made a case for more security than that, and he may opt to play internationally if that’s all the Raptors are offering.
The team knows better than I do how valuable that modicum of cap space is relative to the flexibility of having Powell’s Bird rights, but that’s the path I’d take right now. Powell should be able to contribute as a defender and transition threat deep in the wing rotation, and if his jumper comes along, it’s not inconceivable that he could work his way to backing up a position full-time down the line. Finding a player who can contribute in any role is the goal with second-round picks in most cases, and locking Powell up with the type of friendly deal teams enjoy with second-round picks is a logical next step.
