Some interesting graphs were published today by 538 which breakdown some key stats (including WAR projection) for key players. I’ve posted some of their more interesting graphs below along with their comments. The rest can be seen directly on their website.
Kyle Lowry followed up an excellent 2013-14 season with a better showing to begin last season, as the Raptors started 24-7. But his production fell off dramatically in the second half of the season, and he shot dreadfully in the playoffs. Many of the guards CARMELO sees as most similar to Lowry had already peaked by his age.
In a league enamored with dunks, layups and 3-pointers, DeMar DeRozan is a throwback — and not in a good way. He took 57 percent of his shots between 10 feet from the basket and the 3-point line last season — a career high — and hit a career-low 36 percent of them. He was Toronto’s only player to average 20 points per game, but also the least efficient scorer of any 20-point guy in the league. The Raptors need him to take better shots and share more of the offensive burden.
DeMarre Carroll is the priciest new Raptor, at $60 million over four years. His defense and efficient shooting should help. But none of his previous five NBA teams have asked him to take many shots, and those he has taken usually have been created for him. It’s unclear whether he’ll generate the kind of offense commensurate with a $15 million average annual salary.
The team’s offseason upgrades could cost Terrence Ross playing time if he doesn’t show big improvement in his fourth season.
Additional notes: 538 predicted the Raptors to go 44-38 – claiming the Raps are lucky to be playing in the Atlantic.
Some thoughts off the bat
Kyle Lowry is poised to have a consistent season throughout. Yes, that assumption is based on a couple factors – health being the main one – but he’s in the best shape of his NBA career, and so long as DeRozan can stay healthy to keep the load off of Lowry’s shoulders he won’t burn out as quickly as he did in ’14-15.
DeRozan’s style of play is one that receives a plethora of criticism – and for good reason. DD essentially lives in the horrific long-range jumper area which is frowned upon in today’s NBA. DeMar’s 41% shooting last season was among the worst of qualified shooting guards in the league. Even during DeMar’s peak all-star season, he shot just 42%. On the flip-side, knowing full well how talented DeRozan is, Dwane Casey should construct schemes that gets DeRozan shots inside 10 feet – making a living as a slasher and a close-to-mid-range jump shooter a la Rip Hamilton.
Could you imagine if 57% of DeMar’s shots came inside 10 feet rather than outside? It’s an interesting idea that would be probably be conducive to the flow of the Raptor’s offense. That notion can be backed-up even further given that DeRozan is one of the best in the league when it comes to getting to the free-throw line.
RE: DeMarre Carroll – it’s a bit premature to assume Carroll will be asked to create more than he’s accustomed to offensively. Carroll was essentially brought in as a 3&D guy at a position where a mentally-fragile Terrence Ross once resided. In Atlanta, the scoring was distributed and Carroll played well within his role. Carroll’s usage % will most likely increase under Dwane Casey, but probably not to the point where he’ll be overburdened or have his shooting percentage dramatically decreased.
