I’m like the kid on xmas eve trying to go to bed super early so the next day can be here faster It’s almost time for it to begin #NBAseason
— Kyle Lowry (@Klow7) October 26, 2015
Kyle Lowry wasn’t alone yesterday. Personally, I’m more of a “sniff in deeply, tilt my head back, put the mic to my mouth and yell ‘FINALLLLYYYY’” type than a “kid on Christmas” type, but we’re all excited, whatever our specific mode.
After months of waiting – thank you for making it easier for a few weeks, Blue Jays – the 2015-16 NBA season is finally here. Tuesday brought with it three actual NBA games that count for something, plus a Rich Homie Quan performance at the Hawks’ game that got broadcast on League Pass and was hilarious because A) he tried to censor himself, and B) Jacquees performed, too, and I’m not sure a crowd has reacted with more indifference since Ben Uzoh was last introduced as a starter at the Air Canada Centre.
Tonight, it will be the names of Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll, Starting Power Forward To Be Determined, and Jonas Valanciunas introduced, as the Raptors tip off the season at home against the Indiana Pacers. The whole week to this point has been spent unpacking the offseason and the preseason, and tonight we finally get some answers. Are the Raptors really improved on defense? Is their offense ready? Who’s starting at the four? Are the improvements Valanciunas showed in preseason legitimate or the product of inferior competition and a low-pressure environment? They start on the path to answering those questions tonight, opposite a team with just as many questions of their own.
Raptors vs. Pacers, 7:30 p.m., TSN
This is normally where we’d compare the teams to date, but it’s the opener for the Pacers, too. The two sides were more or less equal in the preseason, ranking seventh (Toronto) and eighth (Indiana) in Net Rating, with Indiana scoring a few points more and giving up a few more, too. Preseason doesn’t really mean much, though, so, uhh, let’s just move on.
Pacers Rundown
Here’s the short version of the 2015-16 Pacers: Paul George.
George was able to return for the final six games of 2014-15 after suffering a gruesome leg injury in a USA Basketball scrimmage last offseason. He was able to score some in a limited role, but really all that mattered was that he was out there. (He also suffered a calf injury in his final game of the season, which slowed his offseason some.)
Now tasked with playing more power forward instead of his familiar two-three role, George is adjusting to both a full workload and a more taxing one. He looked very good on the offensive end in the preseason, driving, attacking, and shooting like his old self. In terms of the position change, he’s still been spacing out some on defense, particularly on the glass, but there hasn’t been anything that isn’t a reasonable part of the transition. The bigger questions are about his body holding up long-term, and the Pacers don’t have much choice but to task George with playing some four, unlocking relatively position-less lineups. Indiana is painfully thin in the frontcourt, meaning that they could be at a talent disadvantage when George slides to the three and they play two traditional bigs.
Overall, the Pacers grade out as a fringe playoff team. They nearly made it last year despite George’s absence, and a return to his pre-injury, All-NBA form would make them a real threat for a low East seed. But that’s something that needs to be put on display for a month or so, not seven preseason games, and until it’s clear that it’s that George back, the Pacers can’t be penciled in to a spot.
Injury Report
Toronto: None
Indiana: Myles Turner (ankle) questionable, Glenn Robinson III (shoulder) questionable
Relevant Quotes
DeRozan on George (Monday): He’s looked great. Honestly, I’m happy for him, especially being one of the guys that was in that game. I’m happy to see him playing like him, back on the floor doing his thing. Now it’s all about, it’s different once the season comes around, you’re playing 36, 37 minutes on a daily basis.
Casey on rotation, specifically PF (Monday): That could be an ongoing thing. Tomorrow night is gonna be a challenge in the fact that you’re playing against a team that starts small, stays small, they’ll go big every once in a while. So that’s gonna be a challenge for us.
Lowry on style adjustment (Tuesday): We’re going to do what we do. That’s one thing I think we’re getting better at: making teams adjust to us, and not us adjusting to teams.
George on Roland Daggett (Tuesday): Do you feel in charge?
After finishing practice with a breathing training mask, @Yg_Trece tried to answer media questions with it too: pic.twitter.com/zJRW25zpkD — Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) October 26, 2015
Positional Breakdown
PG: Lowry, Joseph, Wright vs. G. Hill, Young
The Raptors have an obvious edge here, but don’t sleep on these guards. Hill is a criminally under-rated two-way contributor, and I’m a believer in Young’s ability to become a microwave man off the bench. It will be interesting to see if the Pacers opt for Hill to guard Lowry, as that creates a mismatch somewhere on the wing, or if they task Monta Ellis with keeping a more svelte Lowry in front of him (good luck).
SG: DeRozan, Ross, Powell vs. Ellis, Stuckey, S. Hill
Stuckey could factor in at the point, too, but with the Pacers looking for smaller, more versatile lineups and Hill installed for heavy minutes, he stands to see more run behind Ellis. Both two-guards can fill it up but are susceptible on the defensive end, presenting a nice chance for DeRozan to break out of his preseason slump and for Ross to get his season started off on the right foot. Chasing Ellis around on defense is an unenviable task, however, and it’s one that the Raptors may try to avoid having DeRozan perform when substitutions allow him to check a three.
SF: Carroll, Johnson, Caboclo vs. Miles, Budinger, Robinson III
Carroll figures to see extended time at the four in this one, with George duty falling to him. The Raptors wing rotation also shows why I generally don’t like five-position definitions, as the Raptors’ nine-man rotation appears to have “two guards, three wings, and four bigs” rather than a starter and a backup one-through-five. What I’m saying is: Don’t expect to see Johnson much, if at all. With the Pacers starting three wings, this is a good opportunity for head coach Dwane Casey to see what his best lineup on paper (Lowry-Joseph-DeRozan-Carroll-Valanciunas) looks like against a similar look.
PF: Patterson, Scola, Bennett vs. George, J. Hill, Christmas, Whittington
At some point, the Pacers are going to play two traditional bigs. Who those two are is relatively unknown, because the only bigs who averaged regular run in the preseason were Mahinmi, Allen, Turner, and Hill, all of who lean more center than power forward with the style the Pacers want to employ. I’d guess Hill is the de facto backup four, and he’s difficult to predict given his inconsistent effort, particularly on defense. The power forward spot is the weakest one for the Raptors and I lack confidence in Patterson or Scola checking George, so here’s hoping the Raptors adjust quickly if they’re getting rolled by a smaller Indiana lineup.
C: Valanciunas, Biyombo, Nogueira vs. Allen, Mahinmi, Turner
And like the Pacers have an edge – in talent and strategically, if not depth – at the four, the Raptors have a major edge at the pivot. Even smaller Raptors lineups are going to employ a center, and both Valanciunas and Biyombo should be able to stay close to the rim and make hay on the glass. Allen can shoot a bit and works the offensive boards while Mahinmi can deter at the rim (and I love Turner long-term), but neither is altering the Raptors’ defensive gameplan.
Outsider’s Edge
Normally, this is where we’ll go back and forth with a blogger from the opposing side. It won’t always happen, like today (it may get added later on, so check back).
The Line
The Raptors are 5.5-point favorites with a 197.5 over-under. It’s the opener, so you kind of have to go with the home side, but I’d definitely take the under – the Raptors played at a glacial pace in the preseason and the Pacers were in the bottom 10. Preseason pace doesn’t tell us a great deal, but teams historically play faster, not slower, in exhibition games. So I’d shade low.
Raptors 100 (pizza!), Pacers 93
