At the launch of the season the Toronto Raptors embarked on the toughest schedule in the Association. Many pundits (myself included) felt if Toronto could be close to .500 or better through their first 15 games it would position the Raptors well with a more balanced schedule to finish the season.
Barring some sketchy whistles and poor clutch time offensive execution the Raptors record could easily be 12-3 instead of 9-6 which would place them atop the Eastern Conference. Given how the team jumped out of the gates last season and faded down the stretch the additional 3 losses may be a blessing in disguise as it will keep the squad hungry and focused.
You’ll often hear you can’t win a playoff berth in November, but you sure can hurt your chances by a slow start. Case in point, the Houston Rockets, New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings all face an uphill battle based on their poor starts. More accurately, two of those squads also face some serious off court chemistry issues. This last point highlights another plus for this newly reformatted Raptors squad who has seemingly avoided those issues despite replacing 40% of their roster.
If anything the 2015-16 version of the Raptors appears even more cohesive on and off court than last year. And, with 8 of their next 10 games at home, (including a 6 game home stand) there is ample practice time to focus on fixing offensive issues. Of note, as much as fans may want to complain about the ridiculous 11 of 15 road games and 3 back to back sets to start the season the Raptors are one of the few teams with long home stands. The team has two 6-game and one 7-game home stand. In contrast the Houston Rockets longest home stand is 3-games.
Closer to home a look at the Eastern Conference highlights some interesting schedule disparities to the teams Toronto will compete with to garner home court playoff seeding. Currently the Raptors sit in the sixth position. Examination of the squads schedules who rank ahead of Toronto provides some insight as to why Toronto’s 9-6 start might be under valued.
What the Schedule Says:
- The Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks have played very few road games to date
- Of the 6 teams Cleveland and Atlanta have the most back to back sets (19) with the Cavaliers yet to play 17 sets
- Chicago and Miami have played only one set of back to backs to date
- Indiana and Cleveland have played the fewest games against the West to date
- Atlanta, Miami and Cleveland have played the easiest schedules based on their opponent win-loss record to date
- Miami had the longest home stand with 7 games
- Chicago has the longest road trip remaining (7 games) with Cleveland, Miami and Toronto all with a 6-game road trip remaining
- In review of teams who made the playoffs last season Indiana and Miami play these squads the most in total and Miami has the most games left to play against this faction.
Some other interesting facts to note:
Miami: The Heat have traveled West once this season for a single game in Minnesota. The next time they go West is December 29th for another single game versus Memphis. They don’t embark on a Western road trip until January 8th. The trip is a 6-game road trip to Phoenix, Utah, Golden State, Los Angeles (Clippers), Denver and finishes in Oklahoma City.
Cleveland: Like Miami, the Cavaliers had traveled West once also for a single game (Memphis). They travel to New Orleans December 4th for a single game. The Cavaliers first Western road trip doesn’t occur until Christmas Day starting in Golden State prior to games in Portland, Phoenix and Denver.
Atlanta: Though it’s early, the fact the Hawks have played the second fewest road games in this group coupled with the fact they’ve had the easiest schedule may end up being a factor later on. I still maintain the loss of DeMarre Carroll is an issue and we are seeing it specifically on the defensive end of the court. Though Atlanta boasts the 8th best offense they are in the middle of the pack defensively and rank 29th in rebounding. What isn’t clear is how the team’s game will translate on the road with 15 back to back sets yet to play, 25 games versus the West and 35 versus last season’s playoff teams.
Indiana: An interesting side note on the Pacers revolves around the opponents they have beat versus who they have lost to. Other than Memphis, the Pacers losses are to top defensive teams. Even the Memphis loss is easily explained given the Pacers allow the 8th most points in the paint. Since Indy has the second most games to be played versus the West as well as the second most games against last season’s playoff teams, this could factor into their record over the long term.
Chicago: The Bulls are the oddity in the group since they have beat top offense and defensive squads. They began the season looking to push pace and their defense suffered as a result. Through the last 2 weeks the Bulls have refocused their defensive efforts, returning to a top 10 defense (6th), but slid to 23rd on offense. This squad seems to get up for the big games and takes teams they should beat for granted. Of the teams on the board they have the longest road trip remaining.
In Review:
Whether you buy into strength of schedule mattering or not it does bode well for Toronto since they have completed the hardest part of their schedule this early. The fact they still have three lengthy home stands is beneficial since it theoretically should offer an in game advantage. Furthermore, coaches often lament on the lack of practice time, so lengthy home stands provide that in spades.
For the current 8 games in 10 stand, I suspect the team will work on their offensive issues and look specifically at how to address the loss of Jonas Valanciunas. Notably in the first half of the Clippers game, his absence resulted in better ball and player movement. DeAndre Jordan however was the exception not the rule of the match-ups Bismack Biyombo will face, so there are real issues to be addressed up front.
Recent player interviews specifically from DeMarre Carroll, Luis Scola and Cory Joseph all point to the need to increase ball/player movement and the team being aware of that fact. Cross your fingers their voices carry some weight with the team as any improvement in this area could translate into the team taking another step up the ladder. In hindsight Valanciunas injury may serve as a blessing in disguise if the squad can reduce iso-ball especially in clutch minutes and it will serve as a visual example of “how to” for JV on the sidelines.
For now, the Raptors can be satisfied with their early season results and take note of another stat which tends to separate the top teams. At the start of week 5 only three teams ranked top ten for all three major categories of offense, defense and net differential: the Golden State Warriors, the San Antonio Spurs and the Toronto Raptors!
