I’m not what you would call a “Terrence Ross guy”. A Raptors Republic podcast I appeared on this summer basically devolved into my whining about all of the ways he frustrated me as a player. The issue with Ross always boils down to consistency: it’s not about what he can or cannot do, it’s about what he can or cannot do consistently. It is perhaps because of this stance that some were surprised when I gave the thumbs up to Ross’ contract extension earlier this season, and continue to do so to this day.
Contract extensions are one of the hardest values for the public at large to digest. Unlike in free agency, where the various contract options surrounding a player are well-leaked territory, extensions happen in the shadows, with little-to-no public framework that points to what a player is ‘worth’, according to the market. Team executives, especially good ones, have a keen sense of this value, though. They have dozens of mechanisms in place that help them assess the market value of all their players, from agents to friendly executives on other teams, and that intel is how they are able to project their salary cap situation years out. It’s how Bryan Colangelo was able to do so well on DeMar DeRozan’s contract. All the information the media and fans had was precedent, what players like DeRozan had made. Colangelo, however, knew where the appetite in the league was heading, knew where spending was trending, knew what teams were willing to pay for a guy like DeRozan. He made arguably the savviest signing of his Raptors tenure when he extended DeRozan despite the ceaselessly shaking heads in and around Toronto. When Alec Burks inked a richer deal than DeRozan the following off-season, Colangelo was retroactively vindicated, as I believe Ujiri will be for this Ross signing.
That isn’t to say that I think Ross is going to blossom into the calibre of player that DeRozan is. I really, really don’t see that happening. However, I do believe that Ujiri saw where the market forces were going, assessed a value for Ross, convinced him and his agent to come in at-or-below that value, and signed him (this is the exact same process he applied to Valanciunas, too). In his estimation, he got Ross on a deal that will prove to be at-or-below market value by next summer, and I believe that is what is going to make Ross an easy player to trade when the right asset comes along that will actually help the Raptors.
Who would trade for Ross, you ask? I am amazed, in this day and age, how often people still believe that a player is going to be difficult to trade… and I mean any player. Remember, when a trade is consummated, it is rarely about how good each piece is because if both pieces were playing excellent basketball for their respective teams why would either team want to trade them away? Instead, players are almost always traded on the condition of ‘perceived value’ (this is presuming that a trade is consummated for actual on-court reasons, and not for salary cap reasons or whatnot). Perceived value, in this case, is not so much a case of what a player is worth, empirically, because that standard barely exists in a league where teams are made up so differently, but rather what a player is worth to the receiving team. Does the team perceive a value in a player that is perhaps not being maximized by their current team? Or do they perceive a skill set that is in dire need, or could present as a dire need in the near future?
Let’s remember, in theory Terrence Ross is a strong three-point shooter with defensive chops. Is he hitting his threes right now? No, but teams understand that the offensive structure of the Raptors is not creating many catch-and-shoot three-point opportunities which could be considered a drain on Ross’ efficiency. Is his defence a major asset in his toolbox this year? No, but he has strengths in that area and may just need a more appropriate defensive structure for his skills.
Sound bonkers? Probably to those who watch Ross night-in and night-out, but opposing GMs and coaches make those calls all the time. They are constantly looking for players that are under-utilized or improperly-utilized (by their perception) to grab and slot into their system. Sometimes their perceptions are bang-on, like when Golden State trades for Andrew Bogut, and sometimes they are not, like when Brooklyn trades for Gerald Wallace.
I mean, is Toronto not the same organization that turned Andrea Bargnani into a first round draft pick? How can any fan be cynical about the trade opportunities for any player on their roster after that?
The alternative scenario with Ross was that he was going to play mediocre basketball this season regardless, because he’s a mediocre player, but some team was going to whiff on a bunch of free agents next summer and decide to go after this pseudo-3-and-D player with a big offer to avoid missing out on free agency altogether. Ujiri hates losing assets for nothing. He’d rather re-sign and trade them (hello Nene and Arron Afflalo) then see them walk away without compensation. He had a number in his head he was comfortable bringing Ross back for. If that that number were to be exceeded by some free spender next summer, it would put Ujiri into a bind as it relates to his asset management. Is this a fool-proof plan? No. Teams have been burned before extending a player without the open market to determine their value, but Ujiri felt confident he knew how to price Ross, and when he got him for a comfortable price he paid it.
My point isn’t that he is guaranteed to be right on Ross as it pertains to value. My point is that Ujiri understands the landscape for Ross, and understands what value he can apply to him but still keep him a useful asset. I’ve never believed that his deal was signed with an eye towards keeping Ross long term. I believe it was a deal signed to keep Ross under Ujiri’s control so that he can be used as a pawn in the never-ending chess game of team building. The dollar figure and years attached to Ross have nothing to do with Ross as a capable NBA player and have everything to do with Ross the NBA asset. It can be easy to conflate the two because Ross is an NBA player, but his value to Toronto is all about the perception that he carries around the league. Ujiri priced it and paid it, and now he’s just waiting on an opportunity to swap it for some player that he perceives is a better fit in Toronto. If he succeeds, his plan is justified. If he fails, he fails. Just remember the next time Ross has an 0-9 shooting night that his deal has nothing to do with Ujiri’s assessment of his skills and everything to do with his assessment of his perceived value across the league.
Hopefully that will take some of the sting out of actually watching him play.
