I saw Star Wars: The Force Awakens last night. I loved it, but man, did I not see that plot twist coming when… just kidding. People who spoil seminal pop culture story moments like a new Star Wars movie for others should have their arms ripped off by an angry Wookie. Hopefully though, we can look ahead to tonight’s matchup against the Heat and breakdown what’s likely to happen ahead of time.
The Heat have been a tough team to get a handle on so far this year. They’re finally figuring out how to be a dangerous team, and it’s not how many of us would have predicted. Dwyane Wade has been excellent for the most part as of late, and after a slow start that saw him seemingly nervous to shoot, McBob has developed some great chemistry with Bosh and is finding his role with the team. Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside seem to be the two pieces that Miami still hasn’t figured out. Dragic has gotten nothing but criticism from the Heat fanbase all season. Some of that is warranted, and some of that is based on expectations from the contract that he signed this past off season. Fans are expecting him to be a franchise level player, and he hasn’t been. But there are a couple things worth noting on that point. First, Dragic probably isn’t a franchise player, but that’s ok. He doesn’t have to be. Secondly, he’s been a ball dominant force in the past, and he simply isn’t seeing the ball nearly as much in Miami. Finally, he’s succeeded in the past with the floor spread out, offering up driving lanes and spot-up shooters for kick-out passes. The Heat don’t have much outside shooting at all to either take those passes or open up the lanes, and Whiteside is crowding the driving lanes.
Speaking of Whiteside, it’s interesting that he seems to be getting overwhelming praise while Dragic receives the opposite. Because Spoelstra has been routinely sitting Whiteside through fourth quarters. Perhaps Valanciunas could offer Whiteside some advice on how to get through that without notable pouting or throwing a mini tantrum on TV. Whiteside’s numbers have been fantastic, but he’s also been a blackhole on offense who turns the ball over at a rate so high that it betrays his seemingly high field goal percentage. You’re not really shooting 62% from the floor if you turn the ball over more than twice a game on just 8 attempts. Since Whiteside basically doesn’t see the ball on an offensive possession where he doesn’t shoot it, that typically means that those turnovers come on aborted attempts at shooting. So instead of shooting 5 of 8 per game, Whiteside is really shooting something more like 5 of 10 per game while hitting just 51% of his free throws. That’s less of a force to be afraid of.
The Miami Heat’s identity this season has been defense, when they’ve looked at times like the best defense in the Eastern Conference. Whiteside’s 3.5 blocks a game have been a part of that, but the Heat have actually been even better defensively when he hasn’t been on the floor. Toronto’s offense is more than likely going to struggle again, as it did in their last matchup. Toronto has been carried this season by the offense of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. In a segababa scenario, the night after an overtime loss, Lowry and DeRozan may have a tough time slogging through. Both players are near the league lead in minutes played, and Casey has struggled to reduce either of their minutes played in any game this season. Both have started to show occasional signs of fatigue lately, and this isn’t an ideal opponent for that to be the case against.
It’s also hard to see how the Raptor’s bench unit is going to be able to be relied upon to score against a top defense when it’s been harder and harder for the Raptors to rely on their bench unit to score at all as of late. The Carroll and Valanciunas injuries are starting to look more evident with each passing game as other starters minutes and responsibilities are over extended and bench players who hadn’t been playing fantastic before the injuries are now needed even more. Patterson and Scola are not ideal matchups to cover Chris Bosh. Scola has made efforts to body Bosh in the past, trying to bog him down. This can be successful, but it can also see the more agile Bosh dart around him and into space. Patterson, for his part, has struggled defensively to find the sweet spot in the team defense in maintaining his interior defensive responsibilities while still getting out to the perimeter to challenge spot up shooting big men. In this defense, that’s a tall ask for anyone, and it’s one reason why Chris Bosh has been attempting 4 threes a game as one of Miami’s main shooters. Biyombo is one of the few players with the strength and athleticism combo to stay with a player like Whiteside, and I expect that matchup to essentially be a race to see which player can avoid getting to 3 fouls and an early seat on the bench first.
The last matchup between these two teams saw Toronto stumble into American Airlines arena tired, worn down on the road and unable to score efficiently at all against this smothering Heat defense. The Heat, not always a team able to score well, found their shots that night, and the result was a blowout. If the Raptors are tired on their rotations or struggle to contain Old Man Wade, the same seems slightly more likely than not to happen again. I would be upset with another blowout, but this has every indication of a difficult game to win for the Raps.
