I would have jumped at the opportunity for the Raptors to start the season with a record of 19-12 if given the choice, especially considering Jonas Valanciunas’ 17 game absence. Or even considering DeMarre Carrol’s injury and struggles to adjust to life in Toronto and Terrence/Terry Ross’ difficulties before becoming TJ Ross.
I’ll happily take 19-12.
The Raptors could very well enter 2016 as the home seed in an Eastern Conference that currently features 10 teams with a record of .500 or better, and are doing it with a roster that just weeks ago seemed to have more problems than solutions.
Kyle Lowry looked to be breaking down.
TJ Ross hadn’t fully arrived on the scene.
DeMar DeRozan remained, as always, a question mark when it comes to shot selection.
And these are just a few of the concerns that circled on basketball/Raptors’ Twitter. I think as fans who follow the Raptors closely, we have been well trained over the past two decades to expect the worst, and to look for the problems that need to be solved.
Many of our problems this season seem to be solving themselves though at least in part.
Lowry has seemingly rebounded from his poor performances.
The ball is sticking less in DeMar’s hands with improved team ball movement.
And the roster as a whole is getting healthy with the returns of Carroll and Valanciunas.
Beyond that, the Raptors makeshift power forward rotation of Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson, and James Johnson has been…functional. They aren’t world beaters, but they are at least making a collective positive, which is far better than once expected.
The assumption upon the completion of the roster this past summer was that Patrick Patterson would take over the starting spot after coming off the bench last year. Assumptions only get you so far though, as Patterson has come off the bench every game in place of the veteran Luis Scola (although he has averaged more minutes per game since the start of December).
Despite starting the season as a disappointment though, Patterson has seemingly rebounded as of late and has looked like his old and useful self. He has shown energy, shot the ball with more confidence, and has been a useful floor spacer for an offence that needs exactly that.
At least that’s how it appears, but the numbers show something different when we break it down by month:
The raw numbers seem to indicate that Patterson’s play hasn’t improved on an individual basis, but his advanced numbers hint to making a greater impact on the team as a whole as of late.
Worsening individual numbers, and yet he is having a greater impact on the team as a whole since the start of December. So what is behind this improvement?
Perhaps the biggest reason for his improved net rating is an increase in minutes played with the starters, as December saw an additional 5.1 minutes per game with DeMar and 5.4 additional minutes per game with Lowry.
And that is a huge difference for Patterson. Despite his worsening numbers, Patterson has looked better when playing minutes alongside of the starters, which makes sense. It safe to assume that his net rating would be improved by playing beside better players, and line-up data seems to agree with it.
When replacing Luis Scola with the remaining starters (Lowry, DeRozan, Carroll, and Valanciunas), he has a net rating of 46.3 (obviously not sustainable), although this is in only 14 minutes of time together on the floor. Meanwhile, the current starting lineup with Scola has a net rating of -2.5 in 178 minutes.
Despite this though, the solution isn’t nearly as simple as starting Patterson at power forward, as even the threat of his shooting (and not necessarily the success of his shooting) helps to create much needed driving lanes for Cory Joseph.
But Patterson deserves more than his present 14 minutes as the power forward with the other starters, and for the Raptors to have success this season they are going to need to have a contributing Patrick Patterson. Giving him an opportunity to start the occasional game might be just the jumpstart that he needs.
