Every week I’ll be looking at a few things that catch my eye as I go through my 30s watching Raptors basketball, while my 2-year old son pukes out his dinner on my already-stained shirt.
Missed opportunities in the East
The Cavaliers are the best of the lot in the East, and after that it’s a bunch of teams where you’d have serious trouble picking a winner on any given night. The Raptors happen to be one of those teams. Even clubs that are outside the playoff picture like Washington and Charlotte, would pose difficulty for ones that are seeded. There is simply no pecking order in the East behind Cleveland, and Chicago is the only team that can make half a case for being considered second best.
The Raptors had a chance to differentiate themselves and lay claim to runners-up, and perhaps even make people question if Cleveland’s status as Conference champs is as secure as it seems. However, two losses to the Bulls and a blowout defeat in Cleveland makes the Raptors look like flat-track bullies, beating up on short-handed Washington and Charlotte, while losing when it counts. No shame here and we’re certainly not alone in the East, just look at Miami’s loss in Memphis last week.
Coming in at fifth in the conference, they’re 1 game behind second place, and 1 1/2 games out of the playoffs. What their true worth is, nobody knows, and the upcoming stretch of Brooklyn, Washington, Philadelphia, Orlando, and Brooklyn will tell us very little. We often mention “scheduled losses”, but most of these should be “scheduled wins”. Not until they face Boston, Miami, and the Clippers in a three-game stretch between Jan 20-24th, will we get a better sense of just what this teams playoff credentials might look like.
Clutch offense through the ahead/behind lens
The Raptors offensive clutch performance is an interesting stat. Overall, they’re 10th in the league in clutch offense (under five minutes, +/- 5 points) with an offensive rating of 110.9. However, split the stat based on whether they’re ahead or behind, and you see a sharper contrast.
When ahead, they have a 5th ranked offensive rating of 126.4, while when behind they’re ranked 15th with a rating of 97.9. That is a ridiculous swing by any standard, and on the latest Raptors Weekly podcast, Will hinted that it may have to do with the team being far more relaxed playing from ahead, compared to facing the pressure of having to claw back late in games.
The Raptors don’t necessarily have faith in their team offense with the game hanging in the balance, opting for iso-ball in those situations, with the assist percentages backing up that hypothesis. The Raptors have a 28th ranked assist rate of 51.6%, however, that drops even further to 35.6% in the clutch. It’s no surprise that teams like the Spurs, Warriors, and Hawks, are all in the top five in clutch situations for this metric. The other two? Milwaukee and Sacramento, and I find that that’s attributed to having a good passing center in the middle.
Patrick Patterson’s presentable again
Patrick Patterson’s slowly regaining his confidence. In the last 8 games (since December 19), he’s increased his FG%, 3FG% and point production considerably, making him a valuable offensive asset. And if you had a hunch that more of his shots happened to go in late in games, I can confirm that feeling:
| Before Dec 19 | After Dec 19 | 4th Q | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GP | 28 | 8 | 34 |
| FG% | 36.3 | 42.6 | 46.7 |
| 3PA | 3.8 | 4.5 | 1.3 |
| 3P% | 30.8 | 38.9 | 43.2 |
| PTS | 5.4 | 8.5 | 2.2 |
Remarkably, teams continued to defend him even when he was in a shooting slump, and now that he’s picking up the slack, he could be the sniper that the Raptors are looking for to diversify the aforementioned offense. With Terrence Ross picking up form, and Patterson surging, there really is no excuse for the Raptors to so heavily rely on DeRozan and Lowry isolation sequences to carry the offensive weight.
Some good news is that since December 19, the assist rate is at 56.8% (21st), which isn’t great but still a lot better than games played up until then, 50.1% (29th). We’re trending up!
