With the Toronto Raptors successfully defending their homecourt for 7 games and pushing their franchise record win streak into double digits and beyond with their 11th consecutive win they hit the road for a tougher-than-it-looks road trip. First up are the Denver Nuggets, sitting at 18-30 overall with a 9-15 home record. Despite their record they’re far from an easy out – coach Mike Malone is one of the better up and coming coaches in the game and their young talent is constantly improving as they get acclimated to the NBA. January featured some quality wins for them – Indiana, Golden State and Detroit at home and Washington on the road – along with some narrow losses to quality teams like Memphis and Oklahoma City so the Raptors may be in for a rough night if they take the Nuggets lightly.
Incredibly Brief Nuggets Scouting Report:
The Nuggets play a very egalitarian brand of basketball, the kind that a lot of Raptors fans would like to see implemented by Dwane Casey or whoever ends up replacing him. The ball doesn’t stick and no one player dominates the offense as players easily switch roles multiple times in a single offensive set and everyone gets a chance to make plays. The Raptors off-ball defenders are going to have to be very attentive because Coach Malone tends to implement set plays with options on options on options and without a single dominant scorer anyone on the Nuggets is a threat to off on any given night.
They have a very versatile group of players which allows for some lineups that can be difficult for opponents like Toronto to match. They can try to match your size up front with some combination of Jusuf Kurkic, Nikola Jokic and Joffrey Lauvergne, then they can go small and space the floor with Danilo Gallinari at power forward. If they’re so inclined they can go smaller still and play Kenneth Faried and Gallinari together with three guards in a lineup that slower frontcourts will really struggle to keep up with.
Recent History:
The Nuggets beat the Raptors 106-105 in December in what was a pretty poor overall performance for the Raptors. They mounted a furious comeback late in the game but ultimately came up short despite 34 point outing from DeMar DeRozan. Both teams were dealing with significant injury issues, with the Nuggets missing Jusuf Nurkic, Gary Harris and Kenneth Faried out for the Nuggets and Jonas Valanciunas missing for the Raptors.
Player to Watch:
Nikola Jokic is a 20 year old 2nd round pick that nobody really expected much from this year but has quietly showcased an all-around skillset that should have him in the conversation for most promising big man in the game. The Nuggets are bringing him along slowly so his per-game numbers don’t match those of the higher-profile big men like Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis or Jahlil Okafor but his per-possession numbers are every bit as impressive. His defense still leaves a lot to be desired but offensively he’s everything you want in a modern big man: he’s mobile, able to shoot comfortably from distance, able to make quick reads and accurate passes and equally comfortable in the high or low post. Like most young big men his ability to defend will likely define his value but he has all of the tools necessary to be a force.
Injury Report:
Wilson Chandler is out indefinitely for the Nuggets and several of their big men – Jusuf Nurkic, Darrell Arthur, Joffrey Lauvergne and Kenneth Faried – have been facing a variety of ailments over the last few weeks but Lauvergne was the only one who didn’t play on Saturday against the Pacers. DeMarre Carroll is still out for the Raptors, who seem to be healthy otherwise with Kyle Lowry’s wrist evidently not bothering him much.
Keys for the Raptors:
1. Punish them inside. The Nuggets have some big bodies up front but Nurkic is the only one who can match the physicality of Jonas Valanciunas. Their guards are pretty athletic but for the most part those guys are very wiry or undersized and will have a difficult time with DeRozan inside of 12 feet. The Nuggets are also foul-prone, ranking 20th in opponents free throw rate. It’s important to feed Valanciunas in the post often and for DeRozan to avoid settling for shots outside the paint. If they go small up front it’s important for the Raptors to counter by feeding the ball to Valanciunas in the post and hitting him in open space around the rim where he will be able to finish easily – switching to the quicker Bismack Biyombo is exactly what the Nuggets want them to do
2. Keep the ball moving. The Raptors offense looks more fluid of late but when Lowry is out of the game ball gets very sticky – the Raptors assist percentage drops from 52.7 with Lowry to 42.6 without him. For all the improvements to his ball handling and passing DeRozan still passes mainly as a last resort and Cory Joseph has not really displayed much as far as point guard skills go. They’re both slashers by nature and need to make a consistent effort to allow the whole team to be involved in offense when Lowry is sitting.
3. Get shooters involved early and often. The Raptors really found their outside stroke in January and that’s been a big contributing factor to this win streak so it’s important to nurture that. Run Terrence Ross off some screens to see if you can spring him loose early and make a point of looking for kick outs to Patrick Patterson in early drives. When you don’t have a lot of shooters on the roster it’s important to keep the ones you have in a good rhythm. The Raptors really like getting Patterson and Luis Scola corner threes after they screen up top which is something they should look for early and often because that’s a shot the Nuggets surrender fairly easily – they’re 20th in corner three pointers allowed.
Prediction:
I’m just going to predict a Raptors win every night regardless of opponent until the streak ends. Raptors win.
