Pre-game notes for tonight’s game in Portland, 10 pm EST.
The Portland Trailblazers are on course for a playoff berth this season, which is somewhat surprising given their dramatic shake-up during the Summer which saw them lose LaMarcus Aldridge (among three other starters) rendering Damian Lillard as the de-facto alpha-dog on a team ready to rebuild.
Fast forward half-a-year, and the Blazers are 8th in the Western Conference, have won 5 straight, 9-of-11, and boast a top-3 scoring back-court in Damian Lillard and CJ Mccollum. The Blazers’ duo can score the ball from anywhere on the floor while creating their own shots, as well as open looks for others. Both can penetrate and get to the rim or suck defenses in before dishing out to an open threat from deep. Lillard especially is dangerous, as he can pull up from 30-feet in the same manner that Steph Curry would. Lillard only shoots 36% from three compared to Curry’s 46%, but it’s still a respectable enough number that you have to be pretty tight on Lillard on the perimeter, which can be super dangerous given how good he is at burning his defenders and creating off-the-dribble. Both Mccollum and Lillard are deadly even if they can’t get all the way to the rim, as they’ve developed a really solid mid-range pull-up / floater. Equally alarming: Lillard is just as comfortable pulling up from 25-30 feet as he is pulling the trigger with his feet just behind the arc, as noted in his 3-point shot-chart this season.
While the Blazers’ back-court is proficient offensively, they struggle defensively – not only on the perimeter, but as an entire unit. Lillard has been getting lost on screens defensively, and the help defense the Blazers’ big-men provide hasn’t been good – not consistently anyway. But the Blazers have improved. Understandably, with the amount of new faces in their starting lineup, the development of the team was always going to require patience, and it seems to be paying off. After dragging a bottom-10 defense by Christmas, the Blazers have dragged themselves out and are now 17th. This in large part has to do with the improved defense over this win-streak where the Blazers have held their opponents to less than 100 points in each of their last four games.
Once the Blazers’ top-10 offense (they currently rank 13th, just .8 back of 8th place Indiana) is coupled with an improved defense, they are a tough match-up – particularly for the Raptors who always have a difficult time beating Portland. The Blazers have won 12 of the last 13 match-ups against the Raptors, the last outing in Portland being a thrilling – and eventful – overtime loss where Lillard and Lowry both had big games, and the Raptors were victims of a bogus clear-path foul in OT.
Since the departure of Aldridge, the Blazers have suffered from a weak front-court which isn’t very impressive on either ends of the floor. For all the good that the Lillard-Mccollum duo brings to the table, Portland suffers a lot in other positions. Down-low is an area where Valanciunas can take advantage in and should receive touches early on to put Mason Plumlee to the test. At the four spot, Blazers power-forward Noah Vonleh is doubtful with a left foot sprain, which means that Meyers Leonard will likely start with Ed Davis coming off the bench. Leonard struggles a lot defending stretch-bigs, and his discomfort in that area should mean ample opportunities for Luis Scola and Patrick Patterson to do damage from deep.
This is a game where Cory Joseph can do a lot of damage too. Joseph’s ability to dissect a defense and blow-by traditionally-weak defensive guards like Lillard and Mccollum will cause all kinds of problems, and the Raptors should be able to string together some runs when Coach Casey goes with his double point-guard lineup. As noted above, the Blazers’ front-court isn’t great at help defense, so once you get inside, a plethora of options open up offensively.
A hidden-test for the Raptors could come at the three-spot where they’re incredibly thin right now. Norman Powell and Terrence Ross will have to deal with Al Farouq Aminu. While Aminu is not someone who can wear and tear you down like his back-court counterparts, he’s a high-octane type player who can put up 10+ points a night and rebound the basketball; and both Ross and Powell will at the very least have to match his energy.
Game notes:
- Noah Vonleh (left ankle sprain) – doubftul
- James Johnson (ankle sprain) – out
- DeMarre Carroll (knee surgery) – out
- If the Raptors win tonight, they will move to 34-16 – their best mark in franchise history through 50 games
