Despite dropping seven consecutive games against the Chicago Bulls, the Toronto Raptors come out of the All-Star break as robust 5.5-point favorites on Friday, per Online Sportsbook. What gives? It feels like the Raptors haven’t beaten the Bulls since the 72-10 season upset, the game’s in Chicago, and Toronto’s still without DeMarre Carroll.
Well, things are weird in Chicago right now. Maybe weird isn’t the right word. Troubling? Terrifying? Oh-god-we-traded-Kirk-Hinrich-what-the-hell-are-we-doing? Probably that last one. How could you possible trade the best non-Jordan, non-Pippen Bull of all time? In any case, things are shaky in Chicago. The Bulls played poorly Thursday in losing to the Cleveland Cavaliers, and they’re now just a half-game up on a playoff spot in the East. The team above them (Charlotte) and the two teams below them (Detroit and Washington) all improved at the deadline, while the Bulls are left “disappointed” in their season, at least in the words of general manager Gar Forman to ESPN’s Nick Friedell on Thursday.
The Bulls aren’t suddenly bad, though. They’re just not the Bulls everyone’s used to. They’ve fallen to 11th in defense and 26th in offense, rankings that stand to slide further over the next month as the Bulls potentially fall out of the playoff race amid a sea of injuries.
Jimmy Butler – Out until early-to-mid-March with a knee injury, one he tried to play through and made worse (sound familiar?).
Nikola Mirotic – Suffered a hematoma after an appendectomy and is still out two-to-three weeks.
Joakim Noah – Out for the season with a dislocated shoulder.
Taj Gibson – Returned to the lineup Thursday from a foot injury.
Benny the Bull – Had his heart ripped from his chest when Hinrich was flipped for Justin Holiday and a second-round pick.
That’s a lot to deal with, and it’s rendered the Bulls’ rotation a little thin.
PG: Derrick Rose, Aaron Brooks
SG: E’Twaun Moore, Holiday
SF: Mike Dunleavy, Tony Snell, Doug McDermott
PF: Gibson, Bobby Portis, Cristiano Felicio
C: Pau Gasol, Cameron Bairstow
So while I understand the reported push to move Gasol or Gibson, it should have taken multiple pieces back to get them. The Bulls’ frontcourt defense is just too shaky as currently constructed to let Gibson go, and the offense is going to desperately need Gasol until Butler returns. Maybe they should have cashed in a few pieces to quickly retool for next season, but management probably can’t take that hit a season after unceremoniously firing a very good coach.
Much of what this team can accomplish in Butler’s stead comes down to what Rose can offer, and that’s a scary proposition. The 27-year-old still doesn’t look like himself, averaging 16.1 points and 4.7 assists in 46 games this year while shooting 41.2 percent from the floor. His defense remains shaky and the Bulls have been six points per-100 possessions better without him on the floor. In what may be a good sign for the Bulls or entirely a red herring, Rose has been better of late – he’s shooting 43.6 percent and averaging 20.1 points and 5.6 rebounds over his last eight games, and he’s started getting back to the line a little bit more (although nowhere near the level he did before his injuries).
Portis can help, and everyone’s favorite one-that-got-away is putting up 7.2 points and 4.8 rebounds in 16.5 minutes, strong production. He’s also shooting 44.3 percent from the floor, not exactly great for a big, and hit a bit of a skid before the break, perhaps hitting the rookie wall some, or with opponents figuring him out a bit. He’ll give the Raptors everything they can handle on the glass, something Patterson might not be up for but something that’s preferable to chasing a stretchy big for the Raptors’ frontcourt.
Without Butler, the Bulls really don’t seem too daunting a matchup. Gasol is tough, Rose could get hot, and Dunleavy brings some much-needed wing play, but there’s not a lot else here to worry about, defensively. At the other end, Gibson’s going to have to switch to the perimeter, likely on DeMar DeRozan, to have much utility. The Bulls without Butler just don’t look a defensive force, at least not against the Raptors and their guard-oriented offense.
None of this is to say the Bulls aren’t a major playoff threat if they land in the seven-seed (not a certainty). The Raptors haven’t beaten them since Dec. 31, 2013, and a win Friday against a stripped-down squad isn’t going to shake off any sort of bad vibes the matchup may hold. If Butler’s healthy, and to a lesser degree Mirotic, this team’s a matchup problem. You know, if they can make the playoffs.
For Friday, though, they’re an entirely beatable team. The Raptors should have the edge everywhere except maybe the glass, Cory Joseph can stick on Rose for stretches, Lowry should be able to get his on offense, and DeRozan will get a lot of looks thrown at him but should be able to get going. James Johnson is back, too, which nearly gives the Raptors a full rotation.
PG: Lowry, Joseph, Delon Wright
SG: DeRozan, Terrence Ross, Norman Powell
SF: Johnson, Bruno Caboclo
PF: Luis Scola, Patterson, Anthony Bennett
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Bismack Biyombo, Lucas Nogueira
It’s unclear if Johnson will start, but it seems the likely move, with Powell returning to a reserve role. Powell’s acquitted himself well as a starter, particularly on defense, but the Raptors could use the additional size and offense, even if the starting lineup has struggled a s a group. (Please start Patterson soon.)
The game goes at 8 p.m. on TSN. Raptors 101, Bulls 93.
