Game Day: Grizzlies @ Raptors, Feb. 21

The Toronto Raptors remain a very bipolar team. It was only a month ago the team was in the middle of a franchise record winning streak, taking on all comers despite significant injury issues and inching their way in the direction of the “legitimate contenders” conversation. Since then they are .500, with those losses coming against two sub-.500 teams and a Chicago Bulls team missing their best player. It’s not time to panic but it is time to accept the reality that this team is still pretty far away from where they want to be and are probably as good as they’ll ever be with one legitimate star on the roster. There are things they can upgrade, but those upgrades will net them an extra win or two in the regular season, up their point differential a bit and maybe allow them to progress a little further in the playoffs if the rest of the East stays somewhat weak.

That’s actually the positive opening take that I wrote for this matchup with the Gasol-less Memphis Grizzlies. I’m not really a “find the good in anything” type and even if I was I don’t think the Raptors are giving those types much to work with these days because even if they win this one it’s pretty clear that the issues that held them back last year haven’t gone away. They still struggle to apply the things they do well consistently. They still get too bogged down in one on one play. Their best lineups don’t see enough minutes. They ignore their most efficient offensive options for long stretches. Their perimeter defenders tend to switch back and forth between not really knowing who they’re checking to guarding their man with too much zeal and getting exposed by simple but smart offensive plays. They’ll put it together some nights, and this one may very well end up being one of them, but an individual win against a team missing their best player is not something I’ll be celebrating.

The Memphis Grizzlies are not entirely dissimilar to the Raptors. They typically have their ups and downs during a season but they have a tendency to fluctuate a little less; they’ll be up for a long time and down for a long time. This season has been no different, with the Grizzlies on a 13-4 run and not having lost in regulation in their last 10 games after starting the season the season 19-18. Despite their recent successes it can be easy to look past them while center Marc Gasol is out nursing a foot injury but they didn’t need him to defeat Minnesota Timberwolves team that convincingly beat the Raptors two games ago. As long as Dave Joerger is on the sidelines and Mike Conley, Tony Allen and Zach Randolph are able to take the court the Grizzlies are going to be a tough out most nights.

And that’s just looking at things in a general sense. The Grizzlies aggressive and fundamentally sound halfcourt defense going up against the Raptors plodding offense is a potential recipe for disaster and while he’s getting up there in years Zach Randolph is the kind of player the Raptors have no counter for – everyone is either too small or too slow or Bismack Biyombo. Mike Conley is the kind of defender that can really bother Kyle Lowry because he’s a smart, clean defender and doesn’t commit the kind of fouls that Lowry feasts on. They’re a little thin on the wings after their trade deadline moves but Tony Allen and Matt Barnes are very capable of frustrating DeMar DeRozan and making him plead with the referees for some bailout calls.

But enough with the negativity, let’s talk about what the Raptors need to do to avoid another loss to a team missing their star player:

Play fast. Leak out a bit on outside shots and trust your rebounders. Don’t let DeRozan stand and survey the defense like he’s Lebron James. Don’t drive directly into traffic and then kick out to reset the offense with 12 seconds left on the shot clock, drive when you have a weakness to attack. If you’re throwing it into the post the post player should catch the ball with at least half the shot clock left. This Grizzlies team feasts on hesitant offenses and it’s pointless to probe for weaknesses in their defense – we already know there aren’t any. You have to create weaknesses with motion. The Grizzlies don’t make a lot of bad decisions on defense so you need to force them to make a lot of decisions about helping, switching, hedging, etc.
Go to Jonas Valanciunas early and keep going to him throughout the game. If they had done this against the Bulls the game may have had a very different outcome, instead they looked for him a lot early on and sparingly thereafter which resulted in him a fair amount of his damage in the first quarter. It really has to be frustrating to have a matchup that you know you can exploit consistently and be relegated to setting screens for teammates who take bad shots and then crashing the boards. Nobody on this Grizzlies team has the size to consistently bother Valanciunas. Use him.
Don’t get frustrated. Mental toughness seems to be a big weakness of this team and when things get tough they tend to fall into some bad habits, most notably the endless complaining to the refs and hero ball tendencies of their all-star guard duo. No game against the Grizzlies is going to be easy but the Raptors have the talent advantage and they need to trust that they’ll come out on top because of it.

Injury Report:

DeMarre Carroll is still out with no clear timetable for return. Marc Gasol is out with a broken foot for the Grizzlies and guards Lance Stephenson and Tony Allen are gametime decisions.