Of all the decisions that the Raptors will need to make this off-season, there is one looming in the background that, at first glance, doesn’t seem like a priority – and that’s what to do with the emerging Bismack Biyombo who has exceeded expectations as a rotational player since signing with Toronto after his Charlotte stint. The Raptors will be busy after the post-season, presumably tieing up DeRozan’s max contract and having fun with their first-round draft picks while seeing who else they can muster up in free agency. Luis Scola, James Johnson, and Anthony Bennett could be looking at different teams in the off-season given how expendable they are, while Bismack Biyombo – the most productive of the expiring bunch outside of DeRozan – will be looking for a raise.
When Masai Ujiri acquired Biyombo from the Hornets, he made a classic Masai low-risk high-reward move in hopes to patch up defensive holes in the squad. In hindsight, what he’s actually acquired is just that and much more. Biyombo has turned out to be an energy player off the bench riddled with swag and rim protection. During a large stretch where Valanciunas was out injured with a broken hand, Biyombo slotted in as a starter and contributed enough to tide the Raptors over until the Lithuanian starting center came back. In 18 games as a starter, Biyombo averaged over 11 rebounds per game – with some hiccups of blown layups and mishandled passes along the way.
The faith everyone has in Masai Ujiri these days to do the right thing is astounding, and completely fair. Arguably the worst thing Ujiri has done in his impressive tenure in the post-BC (Bryan Colangelo) era was when he committed to paying Terrence Ross nearly 11 million starting next season, but even that deal doesn’t seem bad now, with Terrence Ross getting to the rim, hitting threes at a reliable clip, and improving in virtually every aspect of his game since December. At the time though, Ross looked like he didn’t even belong in the league, so the criticism was fair. But given that even Ujiri’s worst move has looked fine in hindsight, there is ultimate trust with him moving forward as he remains the most competent and sound GM the Raptors have ever had.
While the trust is there, it will be intriguing to see which way Ujiri swings when all is said done when it comes to the Biyombo renewal. Biyombo is far from a two-way player, but he’s been better than expected. His offense is limited to put-backs and contributing on the offensive glass to reboot offensive possessions. That’s huge on it’s own, even if the Raptors virtually go 4-on-5 when they have the ball with Biyombo on the floor, they can still benefit from his work-rate on the glass. His offense has also gradually improved. He’s not someone you can go to in the post, but he has oddly hit some turnaround jumpers here and then which demonstrate the upside that lies in his offense and hints that he can improve to a perhaps respectable offensive player whose primary role is to protect the rim.
But Biyombo, while cheap, is going to be looking for a raise. And the Raptors will be in a difficult spot to pay him more than 5 million next season given their cap space. That’s actually an interesting realization on its own: Bismack Biyombo probably won’t be with the Toronto Raptors next season despite how much he’s contributed to the team and improved their defense and quality of depth in the frontcourt. He’s a one-year rental – just like Luis Scola.
The Raptors have to figure out how to replace that depth next season barring Biyombo accepting a paycut – something highly unlikely given the massive pay-day he’ll likely receive. The question is, if the Raptors let Biyombo walk, how much would they really miss him? Perhaps the eye test twists the reality, and Biyombo, broken down statistically, is merely the same player he was in Charlotte – the one Michael Jordan opted not to resign for under 3 million. Not that Michael Jordan’s decisions should be exemplified as the standard, of course.
I reached out to Spencer Percy – who’s the main man at another ESPN True Hoop blog, Queen City Hoops – to give us another perspective on this.
Rich Cho and the front office settled on letting Biz find his new home once the team drafted Frank Kaminsky. Not because Kaminsky was going to replace what Biz did on the floor, but because Charlotte took on a major basketball philosophy shift last summer. They traded away or didn’t re-sign most players that clogged their offensive spacing and replaced that with offensive versatility that has unlocked possibly the most improved offense in the league this season.
I think Charlotte was probably surprised that Biz didn’t get a better offer on the open market, and in hindsight could have kept him (and used that rim-protection) at that price instead of wasting space on the bench to pay Tyler Hansbrough, but meh. Ultimately, the Hornets have improved in the area that they wanted to from last season (offense) and they’re firmly in the Eastern Conference playoff race currently. So, in short, Biz replacing a guy like Hansbrough might make the Hornets a little better in spots, but probably doesn’t move the needle enough to cry wolf over for fans.
In the rising cap, I have no clue what any player is going to be worth. To me, Biz is probably going to be worth whatever the new mid-level exception amount it, but if a team values rim-protection and rim-running to a heightened extent then he might approach the $10-mil/year range, as crazy as that sounds.
Among centers coming off the bench, Biyombo is 13th in ORPG, 9th in DRPG, and 4th in BLKPG. That’s pretty good, especially the last bit. But the Raptors will have to look at those numbers and realize that what Biyombo does – as nice as it looks on the court to have a diligent work horse and fan favourite – isn’t completely irreplaceable.
The mini-roster shake-up for next season is coming, and the Raptors might look at Lucas Nogueira as someone who could provide minutes as a back-up center. Nogueira is clearly the inferior player and has looked lost on several defensive sets in his limited minutes with the A-squad this season, but that’s pretty reasonable given the lack of burn he’s gotten with the primary rotation. Still, it’s encouraging for the Raptors that their patience in developing young players is manifesting itself in fruitful ways – and in the most unexpected ways at that.
Thrown into the fire against the league’s best team which is winning at a prolific and historic rate, Nogueira slotted in against the Warriors on a night where the Raptors were thin under the rim to grab 14 points – playing a really fun 2-man game with Lowry on offense, grabbing rebounds, and looking comfortable in-and-around the basket.
Relying on BeBe as the de facto back-up center runs its own risk factor given that he’s still raw, but the signs of his potential are not latent, and given the tight cap situation, the Raptors may look at more financially-viable options while building their team in other areas. The fact remains that while Biyombo looks great on the court for what he’s assigned with, the drop off from him to someone like BeBe isn’t dramatic enough that the Raptors shouldn’t consider it as an option. Nogueira can block shots and would draw more attention on offense, but would need to be fully immersed in being a student of Dwane Casey’s defensive scheme to improve with his rotations and understanding on that end of the floor.
The Raptors will have plenty to think about no matter how the post-season unfolds, and how to deal with and solidify the frountcourt is going to require some tough calls as Biyombo returning as a Raptor next season seems unlikely. It wouldn’t be far-fetched if the Raptors go all in on Nogueira’s development as a more heavy rotational player next season.
