It’s become pretty obvious to anyone who watches the Toronto Raptors that their two biggest personnel issues are consistent outside shooting and the starting power forward position in general. Thankfully there is help for the former on deck as DeMarre Carroll rehabs his knee surgery – there’s no timetable for his return but hopefully he’ll be back in time to get a few games in before the playoffs. Things aren’t so clear for the power forward spot because there is no injured player coming back to bolster that position. It;s a position of need but with the trade deadline already gone the Raptors have three options available to improve performance there: stand pat, sign someone new or promote from within.
The problem with the power forward position is a pretty simple one: the Raptors are required to play Luis Scola there. He’s too slow on defense, he can’t keep opponents off the offensive boards, his outside shot isn’t falling and at this point he doesn’t have much to provide when chased off the three point line. This means that any solution to the power forward problem has to satisfy one condition, which we’ll call Anything But Scola or ABS.
Standing Pat
Dwane Casey has taken a lot of criticism for not promoting Patrick Patterson to the starting 5, but this criticism is overblown. It doesn’t really matter if Scola or Patterson start the game – if you start Scola then you start slow but things pick up when you bring in Patterson, but if you start Patterson you come out the gate strong and then fall off when you bring in Scola. There isn’t really any difference, you’re just changing the timing of your bad play.
I actually like the decision to keep Scola in the starting lineup – or, more to the point, to keep Patterson coming off the bench – because it shows that Casey has learned from one of the biggest mistakes he made last season. If anyone was bored or antisocial enough to track Raptors lineup data religiously last year you may recall that team also had a version of this years bench mob:
The Raptors hot start followed a pattern familiar to people who have paid attention to the Raptors lineups over the last couple of months: the starters kept the game close and the bench delivered the knockout punch. The problem is that lineup barely played after Dwane Casey tinkered with the lineups and demoted Terrence Ross to the bench. Obviously that wasn’t only reason for last seasons second-half collapse but it was certainly a contributing factor. Casey seems to have learned from that experience and is resisting repeating that particular mistake. In doing so he’s taking a page from the Gregg Popovich playbook and keeping one of the teams best overall players in a reserve role where his versatility can impact the game in a lot of different ways as the situation dictates.
I want to preserve the bench mob but I don’t want Scola to remain part of the starting lineup. On to the next one.
Sign Someone New
The Raptors have until the end of the regular season to sign someone so long as they were either not already on an NBA roster or were waived before March 1st. It’s become pretty clear that Anthony Bennett is pretty far from being a contributor at the NBA level so I’m very much in favour of cutting him to clear a roster spot for someone who may provide some immediate help. The field of candidates is not the most impressive – they’re not going to find an all-star caliber player at this point in the season – but there are a few players I think are viable options, presented in no particular order:
Jason Thompson – waived by the Warriors to make room for Anderson Varejao, Thompson hasn’t played much this season but is a good theoretical fit with the Raptors. He doesn’t have three point range but he can shoot reliably from around 18 feet out so he can help a little bit with their spacing issues and he’s fairly mobile for his size. He’s not a sure thing but he’s available and has shown himself to be at least a capable NBA player which would be an upgrade at this point.
Ronald Roberts – the 6’8” power forward is killing it for Raptors 905 and is not currently attached to any NBA team. He’s familiar enough with the system that integration should be fairly simple, he’d be cheap in the short term and if he pans out the Raptors will have uncovered someone they may be able to lock up for a longer commitment on a bargain contract. His skillset may not be the easiest fit because he has limited range but his effort and athleticism are top notch. If I had to compare him to anyone currently in the league it would be rumoured Raptors deadline target Kenneth Faried. Right now Scola’s shooting touch is more theoretical than anything so replacing him with a non-shooter wouldn’t be the end of the world.
Glen Davis – I was kind of shocked to see that he does not have an NBA job at the moment. The obvious caveat is that he may be unemployed because he is still out due to injury but initial projections when he suffered his ankle injury in September had him out 2-3 months and I can’t really find any update on his status. I’d at least kick the tires provided they can bring him in early enough to get him close to game shape by the time the playoffs begin. If he’s in shape and uninjured he’s at least a competent defender and brings a lot of experience to the table. There’s also a possibility he’d run into Drake like he did this young child which would make for a solid half hour of hilarious Twitter content:
Henry Sims – a 6’10” F/C who has some NBA experience with the 76ers. He gave them a solid season and a half there before being let go, presumably because he wasn’t part of The Process. He’s a solid midrange shooter making him a pick and pop threat and while it’s kind of difficult to evaluate a players defense while they’re playing for a team like the 76ers he didn’t look terrible and wasn’t a net negative for them on that end. Like Roberts he is also fairly young and available for cheap with the potential of a longterm commitment on a bargain deal if he pans out.
Raphiael Putney – a wiry 6’10” forward who was not very highly regarded in college, Putney has worked hard to carve out a place for himself in the D League and has earned himself an NBA look. He has a quick release three point shot that he’s made consistently at the D League level and while his thin frame can be an issue on defense he’s quick on his feet and uses his long arms to bother offenses, getting a lot of blocks and deflections. Like the other D League options there is the possibility of longterm value there as well.
None of these are sure things – they’re without NBA jobs at the moment for a reason – but there is potential there and they all satisfy the ABS condition. The worst case scenario with bringing in any of these players is having to go back to Scola if they don’t pan out, which means that nothing is actually lost unless Bennett suddenly becomes a good NBA player. I wouldn’t be considering any of these options if Scola wasn’t such a problem but for a solid month now he’s contributed very little and that doesn’t look like it’s changing any time soon.
Promote From Within
Patrick Patterson is the easy and popular choice here but there is another option that would greatly please a large number of Raptors fans: James Johnson. I know he’s already starting in place of injured DeMarre Carroll but keeping him in the starting 5 as a small-ball power forward is an easy answer to the power forward problem. They already have him on the roster so they don’t need to convince anybody to head to Toronto or take a flier on an unknown quantity, he’s hungry for minutes and he doesn’t need to be integrated because he’s already here. I know that Casey prefers Scola because he doesn’t really make mental mistakes but having a lack of ability is not any better than having a lack of understanding, it’s just a different kind of negative impact. At least with Johnson there is the possibility of making positive impact plays and promoting him preserves the bench unit that has been so successful over the last two months.
Starting Patterson is certainly an option but given how things turned out the last time the Raptors messed with a very successful bench unit it’s an option I’d be very wary of trying. Patterson’s versatility is a big part of what makes that bench unit work and while it will still be possible to get him minutes with that unit I don’t think that Casey manages the rotation well enough to make that happen consistently. If he does go this route he would have to start Patterson and find minutes for him with the bench mob which would be a big challenge. Superstar Kyle Lowry is a big part of what makes that unit tick and I just don’t see how they get two starters minutes with the bench unit and sufficient rest at the same time.
Starting Johnson is an easy option that satisfies the ABS condition and should be considered by Casey but because it involves giving Johnson a larger role it will likely be ignored.
What to do?
My personal preference is to bring in someone new and see what they can contribute and start James Johnson if that doesn’t work out. Jason Thompson would be my first choice because he’s the closest to a sure thing available at the moment and he’s at last a good theoretical fit. If Thompson is uninterested or goes to another team I’d give Henry Sims a shot because he has some NBA experience and like Thompson he’s a good theoretical fit. Roberts and Putney are not likely to be NBA ready at this point and there are a lot of question marks about the physical condition of Davis but at this point I’ve lost all faith in Scola and would rather go with a low risk longshot than continue to watch him drag the Raptors down with his play. I’d even be open to bringing in Steve Novak to give them a few minutes of shooting as a stretch four – an NBA player with one skill has one more skill than Scola has displayed over the last month.
With the Cleveland Cavaliers seemingly in disarray every 2 weeks the Raptors have a punchers chance of pulling off a playoff upset but having to rely on someone who contributes next to nothing for as many minutes as they give to Scola presents a big barrier to that. To reiterate, I don’t think any of these are necessarily likely to pay off, but if you’re where the Raptors are right now you have to at least try something and I’d rather bring in somebody new than move Scola in with the bench unit and do to them what he’s currently doing to the starters. There are options that keep Patterson with that very successful bench unit and they should be explored before the Raptors do anything that might jeopardize the effectiveness of the bench mob.
