I really hope you like when the Toronto Raptors play the Atlanta Hawks, because guess what? The Raptors only ever play the Hawks now! Or so it feels, as the Raptors are set to visit Atlanta on Thursday for an 8 p.m. tip-off on TSN1 that will mark the third meeting between the two sides in the last four weeks.
The Raptors won the two earlier meetings – plus another in early December – and have made your boy look pretty silly for fearing the Hawks more than any other potential first-round opponent this year. Despite the Hawks employing a stretchy frontcourt, strong 3-point shooters, the ability to go five-out, and an elite defense, the Raptors have found a way to dig down and take care of business. For whatever reason – effort against a perceived peer, strong nights from the Raptors’ stars, variance – the Hawks have managed just 95.7 points per-100 possessions against Toronto, 7.4 PPC worse than their full-season mark. The Raptors have also scored seven more PPC on Atlanta than their No. 2-ranked defense is accustomed to giving up.
The season series against Atlanta has been very encouraging, as have the Raptors’ series against every other team currently in the Eastern Conference playoff picture (with Detroit and Indiana winning Wednesday, the Bulls are now two-and-a-half games back of a playoff spot and three back of seventh). Confidence was high entering the year due to the perception of improved two-way play and balance, and a more matchup-proof roster and style of play. Consistently playing a team like the Hawks, a theoretically antithesis to the Raptors’ frontcourt, well backs that belief up.
Of course, the regular season series doesn’t mean a ton. Statistically, it means a little in the first round, but Raptors fans know better than to get comfortable with even a sweep entering a postseason series. The Hawks are tough, talented, disciplined, and well-coached, and they could use a win Thursday – the 3-6 Mafia in the East are separated by just one game, and each team would benefit from home-court advantage (and, if they’re being honest, the three- or six-seed to avoid Cleveland in the second round, sorry). This is going to be another tough test for the Raptors, their second in a week with three good ones before they close the season with a complete joke of a three-game stretch.
To help set the stage, we enlisted the good homie Robby Kalland of CBS Sports. If you don’t follow Robby, I can’t trust you.
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Blake Murphy: T.I.’s King was released 10 years ago last week. Has any Toronto rapper ever had an album this good?
Robby Kalland: No and none ever will. King is a top-5 all-time rap album please don’t @ me.
Blake Murphy: The Hawks are third in the East and a game up on sixth. Is there a preferred landing spot and/or opponent in that ATL-BOS-MIA-CHA mess?
Robby Kalland: I think you want to either be 3 or 6 this year. Its all a mess in there but you’d certainly rather face Toronto in Round 2 than Cleveland. I think the Hawks would prefer to face Boston or Charlotte if they have it their way, because Miami has some matchup problems — particularly on the boards. The big thing is to try and get Toronto in the semis, even though Toronto’s given the Hawks fits this year.
Blake Murphy: You can pick one member each from the Raptors and the Hawks to join the crew of Fast 8. Who you taking?
Robby Kalland: Dennis Schroder is the obvious choice from Atlanta. He has a gold Audi R8 for god’s sake, so he’s ready. As for Toronto, I’d probably say Bebe. They’ve always had the Brazil connection in the F&F series, so you could work him in pretty easily.
Blake Murphy: The Raptors have played the Hawks exceptionally well, especially during Atlanta’s recent hot stretch. On paper, the Hawks should present the Raptors with a ton of problems. What do you think’s been Atlanta’s issue against the Raptors this season?
Robby Kalland: Toronto has 2 really good perimeter scorers and have the bigs to take advantage of Atlanta’s soft rebounding. Atlanta doesn’t have a big wing defender to bother DeMar DeRozan with DeMarre Carroll now in Toronto. As good as Thabo Sefolosha is, he’s not the same physical presence, and Kyle Lowry can cook Jeff Teague if Jeff’s not locked in — which is often. I think that Atlanta’s biggest problem is handling teams with two very good perimeter scorers because they do not have two strong perimeter defenders that they can play at the same time — Dennis and Thabo make the best defensive combo, but leave something to be desired on offense.
Blake Murphy: The Hawks are still a team I’m worried about if I’m the Raptors. Assume current health for both sides but a 70-percent Carroll playing 20 minutes per-game, who do you have in a seven-game series?
Robby Kalland: I think Toronto probably takes it in 7, but the Hawks can certainly take it in 6 or 7 if they shoot the 3-ball well. I think people have slept on the impact Kris Humphries has had on the Hawks rebounding and just generally strengthening the frontcourt rotation, but in a 7 game series there will be games where they get cooked on the boards and
will have to shoot the lights out to make up for it. The Hawks can do it, but if forced to pick I’d take the Raptors in 7.
Blake Murphy: Say the two sides meet up in the second round…you got a spot on the couch for your boy?
Robby Kalland: Always, buddy.
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Raptors updates
I’m unsure if Carroll is traveling with the team, but at last update, there’s still no update. Assume he’s out, and while the Raptors could opt to get some key players rest with a back-to-back situation, here’s guessing they opt to do it Friday instead – yes, it’s a home game, but losing to Indiana can help force Chicago out, if they care about such things, and it’s always made sense to me to sit the second half of back-to-backs in case the first half plays out in such a way that the rest isn’t needed.
Anyway, if there’s a Full Squad Less Carroll, here’s how things should shake out:
PG: Lowry, Cory Joseph, Delon Wright
SG: Norman Powell, T.J. Ross
SF: DeRozan, James Johnson, Bruno Caboclo
PF: Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson, Jason Thompson
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Bismack Biyombo, Lucas Nogueira.
It will be interesting to see how Scola looks in this one. Two meetings ago, he and Valanciunas killed the Braves on the offensive glass, but Scola sat out the last meeting and Atlanta is exactly the kind of opponent he’s struggled with. He’ll need to make hay on the boards again and stay nimble at the defensive end for an array of pick-and-pops. This should be a nice test a week-and-a-half out from playoff action.
Hawks updates
Tiago Splitter (hip) is still sidelined, Mike Muscala (personal) is expected to be back with the team, and Walter Taveras and Lamar Patterson are getting playoff experience in the D-League. Things should look something like this:
PG: Teague, Schroder, Kirk Hinrich
SG: Kyle Korver, Tim Hardaway Jr.
SF: Bazemore, Sefolosha
PF: Paul Millsap, Mike Scott
C: Al Horford, Baby Huey, Mike Muscala
All the shouts out to The Bazed God, by the way. I really, really like that dude.
The line
The Hawks are six-point favorites as of this writing. With how well they’ve played lately – 15-5 in their last 20, with only one of those losses coming against a team that isn’t top-two in their respective conference – and the fact that the game means much more to them than Toronto, that’s probably fair. The Raptors don’t take nights off, though, so expect a close one, even if the Raptors wind up resting a body or two. Withholding a prediction until pre-game news and notes, as has become the custom down the stretch with a fair amount of rotation uncertainty game-to-game.
