There’s not much to say about the Raptors/Pacers series thus far except that the Pacers have a star, with the rest of their team non-existent. The Raptors have two stars, who have been virtually shut down for the series (DeMar gets a pass after Tuesday obviously), and yet their bench players and supporting cast are the only reason they have 3 wins against the Pacers thus far. The likes of Norman Powell, Cory Joseph, Bismack Biyombo and earlier in the series, Jonas Valanciunas, have been the unexpected heroes that have kept the Raptors playoff ship afloat. Coming into the series, Dwane Casey said these two teams are mirror images of each other – the reality is, they’re playing like they’re far from that.
With DeMar’s big game on Tuesday night, serving as his “coming out party” in the 2016 playoffs (it was about time), the narrative as the closing stages of this series are upon us will continue to be centred around that other all-star. That all-star that has started the past two all-star games, been the unequivocal leader of a 48, 49 and 56-win team these past 3 seasons, and elevated his status to an elite point-guard in the eastern conference. Kyle Lowry was simply awesome in the regular season. In the 54 wins Lowry played in this year, he had a +9 rating, shot 45% from the field, scored 21.5 points a game, grabbed 4.9 rebounds, and dished out 6.5 dimes. Time and time again, Lowry carried the squad.
December 2, 2015 @ Atlanta – 31 points, 5 assists, 5 rebounds (22 points in 4th)
December 5, 2015 vs. Golden State – 41 points, 7 assists, 3 rebounds
February 26, 2016 vs. Cleveland – 43 points, 9 assists, 5 rebounds
It was a season to remember for Lowry, who entering the campaign in the best shape of his life, seemed to be personally impacted by how the Raptors were swept last year in the playoffs. Lowry has been on the record saying he was embarrassed at how he played, and how he let his team down in that series against the Wizards. And while he remains adamant he was healthy at the time, the consensus was that he wasn’t. Masai Ujiri knew it, Dwane Casey knew it, and the fans knew it. So when Training Camp rolled around in September, and we saw Kyle Lowry looking like the “after” in an infomercial for a weight-loss pill, the playoff future for the Raptors looked bright. And now in April, with a 56-win season under their belt and an apparently healthy Lowry at the helm, the Raptors looked poised for an inevitable playoff run that would likely feature at least one playoff series victory.
And somehow, in Game 1, those ugly, hideous demons awoke. The exorcism of those haunting playoff demons that fans kept talking about, seemed to not only be a storyline going into game 1, it was evident mid-game that it was in the minds of players. Carrying the weight of a 15-year playoff second-round drought for this franchise had to be taking a toll on both Lowry and DeRozan, who after being looked upon as the saviours during the regular season, began to remind Raptor fans why the past 2 years have been so difficult to endure. Granted 2 years ago, it was a competitive season and indicative of something special about to start, but in hindsight, our outlook on that series is a little different. And with 2 losses in the first round consecutively, with the same coach, the same core, and a similar supporting cast (JV, Patterson, Ross), the pressure was inevitable. Going into game 1 this year felt different…until just after halftime. Lowry, while his usual self in some unquantifiable dimensions of the game, still committed 6 turnovers, missed 5 free throws, shot 3/13 from the field and was -10. Game 3 was an improvement, at 21 points, 8 assists and 4 rebounds in a 16 point win – but it still didn’t feel like the arrival of the all-star this city fell in love with all over again this past season. It didn’t feel like “Lowry time” really struck.
Some may point to Lowry’s net rating, player efficiency, or advanced metrics to analyze his impact on the games in this series. And yes, I agree, Lowry’s had an unbelievable impact on some of these past 5 games, even without scoring the basketball. I could get into all of that and most people would agree that many of those stats are meaningful. But just for the sake keeping it simple today, let’s adopt the Matt Devlin approach. As Devlin will often say, “the three is the key”. That’s not to say Lowry hitting threes is the only reason the Raptors can succeed – but the “correlation doesn’t imply causation” argument has never been one to stop us basketball over-analyzers from crunching some of the numbers and seeing what the patterns tell us. No reason to stop now.
During the regular season, when Lowry shot better than 45% from the field, the Raptors were 27-8 (77% win percentage). When he made 4 or more 3-pointers in a game, the Raptors were 16-4 (80% win percentage). Again, that’s not to say that’s why they won those games – it’s just an indicator of a correlation that likely means that the pace of the game that opens up the shooting opportunities for Lowry, is one that’s conducive to winning for the Raptors. It means we’ve got to maintain floor spacing; it means the bigs need to be playing well (to create open shots on the perimeter), and it means screens need to be set effectively such that opposing defenses players can’t fight through them. Part of that is offensive execution, but part of it also hinges on the defensive efficiency of your opponent. Indiana, the third-best defense in the league coming into this playoff series, is about as good as they get when it comes to on-the-ball and rotation/help defense. Solomon Hill, George Hill and Paul George are 3 active and capable defenders who can guard multiple positions at the point and on the wing; combine that with a struggling shot coming into the series, and some of this, while surprising, shouldn’t be shocking.
Kyle Lowry – 2015/2016 Regular Season Shot chart (77 games)
Kyle Lowry – 2016 NBA Playoffs Shot chart (5 games against Indiana Pacers)
What’s clear is Kyle’s struggles outside the three-point arc in the playoffs, and his reliance on his mid-range stroke and duck-ins to the hoop to get his points. In a season where Lowry set a career high for 3-point makes (he was 5th in the league in 3’s made this season), his clear sweet spot from outside is the straightaway three-pointer. The shot was a byproduct of one of two popular Raptor plays. One is the high pick-and-roll to free up Lowry, paired with Biyombo or JV rolling hard to the cup. The other is the pull-up transition or mid-transition shot in the flow of the offense, usually early in the shot clock. Those ones are harder to game plan for, but easier to get and stick once you see a couple go down.
The crux of the issue lies with Indiana’s game planning for Lowry, which consists of denying Lowry the ball when he plays alongside Joseph in the backcourt, playing him relatively tight but straight up on the ball, and given George Hill’s size advantage, his slightly above-average defensive skills seem elite in standard. Simply put, the Pacers knew what was coming, they planned for it, and they had the personnel to do it. Combine that with the pressure, nerves and other factors coming into this series, and you’ve got a Kyle Lowry that’s just not at his best.
Having said all of that, what can the Raptors do to give Lowry a chance? Does he have a chance to bounce back in this series? Can the Raptors win another game to close it out without Lowry having a big game? Those are all questions I’d really like to answer, but getting a true feel for this series, and being able to predict what’s going to happen has been an absolutely useless exercise these past several days, so I’ll once again keep it simple.
Let’s make one thing very clear – Lowry can’t really be “due” for a good game. I don’t think that’s the right way to think about the situation – some of it has to be planned for by Coach Casey and executed by the players. It can’t be a make/miss argument all the time. One can make reference to the gambler’s fallacy – just because something isn’t happening, it doesn’t mean it’s more likely to happen soon. What it really means is that tomorrow is a new day. It’s the playoffs. There are odd start times, the games mean more, players are sick and tired of each other at this point, and the series will only get more taxing as it goes on. Every game is radically different, and the series can shift in a matter of moments. We saw how DeMar turned it up in game 4, and with all eyes on Lowry, you can bet Kyle is aware of what he needs to bring to the table.
The mental fortitude of the players will be the ultimate X-factor over the next 2 games (hopefully 1). Lowry, who’s Philly tough, battle-tested, and unfazed by the moment, has grown into Toronto’s hero for those exact reasons. It’s time he puts those demons to bed, lace ‘em up, and deliver for the Raptors. If there were more famous Kyles, I would’ve probably made a “Tyson, Jackson, Jordan, Game 6” joke right about here. Let’s get ‘em KLow.
