For just the second time ever, the Toronto Raptors will open up a second-round playoff series tonight. Fresh – and I mean, like, 48 hours fresh – off of their first seven-game series victory, the Raptors find themselves back in the Eastern Conference Semfinals, somewhere they haven’t been since Vince Carter was just beginning his ascent in 2001. It’s been 15 years since the Air Canada Centre was home to a game of second-round playoff basketball, and, depending on how you feel about the fringier of sports (lacrosse is great!), the first time it’s been home to a second-round playoff game people are generally aware of since 2004.
It’s…a big deal, and a long time coming. And it tips off tonight at 8 p.m., when the Miami Heat visit. TNT has the U.S. broadcast with a star-studded team (Ian Eagle, Brent Barry, and Allie LaForce), and TSN has it on the Canadian side (TV and radio), while Monty McCutchen, Jason Phillips, Josh Tiven draw the officiating assignment.
Required reading
Here’s what you need ahead of Game 1, assuming you haven’t been keeping up.
*Gavin’s series preview, my preview podcast with Will, and this series preview Q&A with Zach Harper and Joshua Priemski should get you up to speed for the series.
*Matt’s pre-game should get you ready for the specifics of Game 1.
*The Raptors had to turn the page quickly after their Sunday victory, as the Heat present some different challenges than the Pacers. That’s particularly true for DeMar DeRozan, who could see five different Heat defenders.
*The matchup includes a fun undercard of battling brothers, and of second-round picks. Like Josh Richardson, Norman Powell worked tirelessly to improve his shooting this year, erasing his biggest perceived weakness.
In the least surprising news of the series, Bruce Arthur of the Toronto Star sets the stakes up well (on their sharp new website). His counterpart Chris O’Leary tells the fun story of Goran Dragic and Kyle Lowry going from battling for a starting gig to battling for a spot in the conference finals.
Raptors updates
Dwane Casey isn’t going to reveal anything until the last minute possible. Still, we can look at some of the questions he has to face in Game 1.
Who to start? I think sticking with the new starting lineup is the way to go. That group was effective in short stints in the season, was one of the team’s best looks in round one, makes plenty of sense at both ends on paper, and allows the Raptors to match size with the Heat. Miami starts a “small-ball” lineup with Luol Deng as the de facto power forward, but all three of their wings have size, as does their point guard, and Patrick Patterson can handle the Deng assignment.
UPDATE: Look below, woah!
What’s the bench rotation? I know there are some who want to start Norman Powell and slide DeMarre Carroll to the four, and while I don’t think they get their wish, they’ll see plenty of Powell. His length, defense, and intensity were paramount to winning multiple games in round one, and even recognizing how important Terrence Ross’ shooting is to bench-heavy units that lack shot-creation, Powell has likely jumped him in the pecking order. It doesn’t hurt that Powell’s a great option to chase Dwyane Wade around, either.
But Casey’s comments at shootaround suggest Ross is still going to factor in early, so while I thought the series would start with a bench of Cory Joseph, Powell, and Bismack Biyombo, with Ross in a lesser ninth-man role, that ninth-man role may still be in the 12-plus-minute range.
“That’s a very important point,” Casey said of Ross’ gravitational pull. “We’ve gotta space the floor. if they’re gonna pack the paint with Whiteside and keep it in, we’ve gotta be able to stretch the floor with other guys and make sure our spacing is perfect. Terrence is one of the guys that can do it with his 3-point shooting. And now, Norm, with his 3-point shooting, can do the same thing. We’ve gotta get Terrence going, we’ve gotta get him involved offensively, and he’s gotta give it to us on the defensive end.”
The biggest adjustment? Casey would probably be well-served not playing Carroll and Patterson both the entire first, then resting them together. That forces the Raptors to go super-small or play Luis Scola, Jason Thompson, or James Johnson, and he’ll want to keep the rotation tighter than that. By sending one of Carroll or Patterson to the bench earlier – likely whenever Justise Winslow checks in for Deng or Joe Johnson – Casey can ensure one of them is in at the four at all times. That could be huge, as the Heat could punish those two-guard, two-wing lineups the Raptors used to strong effect against Indiana.
Assuming Casey doesn’t tweak and Lucas Noguiera and Bruno Caboclo draw inactive again (likely, since there’s little reason the Raptors would need a third center or a human victory cigar), here’s what the rotation will look like:
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, (Delon Wright)
SG: Norman Powell, Terrence Ross
SF: DeMar DeRozan (James Johnson)
PF: DeMarre Carroll, Patrick Patterson, (Luis Scola), (Jason Thompson)
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Bismack Biyombo
UPDATE: Powell starts over Patterson. As explained above and a bit in the series preview pieces, this is a lineup iteration that was always going to see extended run, and it’s a justifiable move. I didn’t think it was a necessary change to make, necessarily, but it returns Casey’s four-man bench unit into it’s normal rotations, it makes sure one of Carroll or Patterson is always on the floor as a four, and it ensures the starting group can switch two-through-four, with Powell likely drawing Wade, DeRozan Deng, and Carroll Johnson to start.
A lot of the questions asked above get answered with this move. Who starts? Powell, and the starting assignments are fairly clear and as comfortable as they can get in this matchup. Who’s the bench rotation? Casey moves back into his preferred nine-man rotation, just with an extra wing in place of Scola. Making sure a forward capable of guarding a power-three is on the floor? This naturally staggers the minutes of Carroll and Patterson, as required, and it really simplifies Casey’s Game 1 decision making with respect to his rotations.
It’s also another huge vote of confidence in Powell, who will be relied on to chase Wade around and stop him – or whoever he switches or cross-matches on to – in the post. He’s earned the chance.
I’m honestly a little surprised the Raptors pulled the trigger on this in Game 1 – I was clear in preview content that I didn’t think a third starting lineup switch in eight games was coming right away, but that the particular fivesome, and Powell especially, would be important – but I’m in favor of it. The two potential starting sets are probably equal, but starting Powell improves the fluidity of rotations, firms up the bench unit, and doesn’t really take much off the table beyond a handful of dual-screener or two-four screen plays that the Heat likely would have just switched aggressively on, anyway.
Heat updates
Chris Bosh remains sidelined indefinitely, and the situation continues to be a bit confusing. At a very high level, Bosh allegedly wants to return to play, but the Heat remain concerned about a second incidence of blood clots that shut him down at the All-Star break. Bosh didn’t travel with the team but arrived in Toronto for Game 1 with the Heat’s owner, (who I just met, nice guy!). And now the NBPA is getting involved. Dan Devine as a good rundown here.
In any case, assume Bosh is out until otherwise announced. Otherwise, the Heat are fine, with Richardson saying Tuesday the shoulder that bothered him a bit in Round One isn’t a concern to him, and head coach Erik Spoelstra saying “everyone is available” when asked about the status of Tyler Johnson (shoulder).
Assuming Bosh and Briante Weber are your inactives, the rotation will look something like this:
PG: Goran Dragic, (Tyler Johnson)
SG: Dwyane Wade, Josh Richardson, (Gerald Green)
SF: Joe Johnson, Justise Winslow, (Dorell Wright)
PF: Luol Deng, Josh McRoberts
C: Hassan Whiteside, Udonis Haslem, (Amar’e Stoudemire)
Pre-game notes/quotes
*Bismack Biyombo was retroactively assessed a Flagrant 2 for an incident early in the fourth quarter of Game 7 against Indiana. Casey didn’t have an issue with the change, saying Biyombo made contact with a players head, and intent didn’t matter. “Well, the league has to do it. You miss quite a few calls. We’ve sent some in that sort of weren’t calls. And that’s the protocol,” Casey said. “I thought it was handled properly.” He made
*Asked about the emphasis on turnovers, Casey instead offered that paint points could be a bigger determinant in the series. “They have some excellent drivers,” he said. “Our one-on-one defense is going to have to be pristine.” Pick-and-roll defense is “a five-man job,” especially against the Heat, who short the pick-and-roll to make things difficult. The Raptors are much better at those aspects of defense this year, something Casey attributes to a discipline and a tight focus since Day One of training camp.
*Powell modeled his game some after Wade, whom he’ll get to guard at some point in this series. On potential perceived similarities between the two, Casey offered a recollection of Dwyane Wade’s pre-draft workouts with the Seattle SuperSonics. “I remember bringing Dwyane Wade into Seattle. Very quiet, very mature, student of the game,” Casey said, paralleling Powell. “He does have an old man’s game, a lot like Norm. If Norm is close to being like Dywane Wade, this franchise is very blessed.” Preach. (Casey’s Sonics ended up with Nick Collison at No. 12, while Wade went fifth to the Heat.)
*”I don’t gamble, so I wouldn’t know what’s going on there,” Casey responded when asked who the favorite may be. “I’m sure people are overlooking us and looking to Miami-Cleveland. Which is fine. Which is good.”
*Erik Spoelstra stepped to the podium, said “OK, everybody’s ready to play,” and then walked off when there wasn’t a question within the first few seconds. It was weird. With Bosh now in the building…I don’t know. It’s probably nothing,but it felt very weird.
Assorted
We all flexing tonight.
Game 1 shirts, red-on-white crowd flag. pic.twitter.com/D7e2lni9SI
— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) May 3, 2016
The line
Game 1: Raptors -4.5
Series: Raptors -155
Those lines suggest the Raptors are roughly one point better than the Heat on a neutral court, and that the Raptors have an implied probability of winning the series of about 60 percent. That’s a fair amount of respect given how they played in the previous round, and it’s worth remembering that oddsmaker essentially held steady in their opinion on Raptors-Pacers except for Game 6. These lines essentially suggest not much has changed since the end of the regular season, which is probably fair. The Raptors are a slight favorite, but not at all a comfortable one.
Raptors 95, Heat 92
