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Pre-game news and notes: Screening infidelities, Patterson returns to starting lineup

Let's not let this all become about the officials. Oh, Ed Malloy, you say?

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Hopefully the Toronto Raptors aren’t as hung over as your boy was this morning. Life’s tough like that in South Beach. And apparently in my corner of Toronto.

Anyway, the Raptors should be fairly well-rested, as they departed Toronto around 2 p.m. yesterday, leaving ample time to get adjusted in Miami. That’s great, because Miami requires an adjustment – the Heat are an excellent home team, and for whatever reason, they’ve scored like crazy there during the playoffs so far. The Raptors were a great road team all season long, with DeMarre Carroll and Kyle Lowry, in particular, admitting they love playing away from home, and so this will be a good test for both teams.

Hopefully it’s a test with more attractive results than the first two. This series has been ugly and has been found to be without an alibi. Each team is probably disappointed and at the same time relieved to have left Toronto with a 1-1 split, given how they played, and there’s a real sense that this remains anyone’s series. Well, not, like, anyone, but either of the two teams. The Heat are -160 favorites for the series, almost the exact same as before Game 2, and the Raptors can swing that back their way by taking a split in Miami.

The game tips off at 5 p.m. from American Airlines Arena. ESPN has the game in the U.S., with Mark Jones, Jon Barry, and Heather Cox on the call, while Sportsnet has the Canadian broadcast and Sportsnet 590 has radio rights. James Capers, Kane Fitzgerald,. and Ed Malloy(uh oh) are the officials.

Required reading
Here’s what you need ahead of Game 3, assuming you haven’t been keeping up.

*Tamberlyn’s excellent game preview.
*I answered some questions about the series for Hardwood Paroxysm.
*Jonas Valanciunas is just fine with his workload despite strong arguments to be made he should be a bigger focal point. DeMar DeRozan was complimentary about Valanciunas’ play, like everyone else, but he angered Hassan Whiteside in the process. Maybe this is the drama the Raptors need to avoid bad starts and series holes.

Raptors updates
I’m not sure much will change for Dwane Casey, but the big thing to look out for is Norman Powell’s role. The rookie has struggled a little through two games, and Terrence Ross, of all people, has stepped up and performed off the bench. I don’t think the Raptors will make a starting lineup change, because Casey is back to using his four-man bench rotations comfortably and to some success, but Powell probably has a short leash once again. Now that Casey seems comfortable with both point guards playing, even when Josh Richardson and Justise Winsow aren’t on the floor, Cory Joseph should be the first man off the bench again. He’s been so damn good.

UPDATE: Patrick Patterson returns to the starting lineup tonight. It’s an interesting change, and the fifth time the Raptors have tweaked their starters already in 10 postseason games. Patterson is quick and rangy enough to handle the Luol Deng assignment, and the Raptors trust him to switch on to guys like Joe Johnson, or even guard him initially if they want to try DeMar DeRozan on Deng (Dwyane Wade is maybe another story). The bigger part of this change is that it likely means DeRozan draws Wade now, at least for stretches, and that’s a challenge for him. I’d guess Patterson draws Johnson, Carroll Wade, and DeRozan Deng to start, but those three matchups will be fluid.

This could also mean Powell is back to the fringes of the rotation, as depending on how the game goes, it could be James Johnson getting #utilized as a defensive specialist. Casey could also just tighten even more with an eight-man rotation. Hopefully Powell gets the chance to spark some energy off the bench, still.

Before the series started, I wrote that I didn’t think the Raptors needed to move away from their then (and now again) starting five – it’s been one of their best lineups, both on paper and on the floor in a limited sample, and it provides a good mix of spacing, switchability, and size. It’s a very good group, and the returns in the playoffs – +18 in 71 minutes, a 2-1 record against Indiana when they started – back that up.

Assuming Casey doesn’t tweak and Lucas Noguiera and Bruno Caboclo draw inactive again (likely, since there’s little reason the Raptors would need a third center or a human victory cigar), here’s what the rotation will look like:

PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, (Delon Wright)
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
SF: DeMarre Carroll, Terrence Ross, (James Johnson)
PF: Patrick Patterson, (Luis Scola), (Jason Thompson)
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Bismack Biyombo

Heat updates
Chris Bosh is out for the playoffs. Goran Dragic (stitches), Dwyane Wade (knee), and Whiteside (knee, thigh, elbow, cold) all returned after their Game 2 scares and are good to go.

Assuming Bosh and Briante Weber are your inactives, the rotation will look something like this:

PG: Goran Dragic, (Tyler Johnson)
SG: Dwyane Wade, Josh Richardson, (Gerald Green)
SF: Joe Johnson, Justise Winslow, (Dorell Wright)
PF: Luol Deng, (Josh McRoberts)
C: Hassan Whiteside, Udonis Haslem, (Amar’e Stoudemire)

The question facing Erik Spoelstra is who the hell he can call on outside of his top seven. He can’t play that thin a rotation all game, and Green, Johnson, McRoberts, and his two backup centers are all big question marks. Haslem and Stoudemire, in particular, are tough plays against Toronto.

Pre-game notes/quotes
*The Last Two Minute Report once again had an incorrect non-call on a Jonas Valanciunas illegal screen included, and you’d have to think this will be an officiating point of emphasis moving forward. (There was only one other missed call, also favoring Toronto.)


*The answer to this one? Because the Raptors and Heat hate basketball and hate fans.


*There’s also this, which suggests the Heat may be coming back to earth soon:

Assorted
*Sorry today’s notes aren’t particularly deep or insightful. I’m very tired. I answered some questions about the series for Hardwood Paroxysm, as linked above, and there’s more analysis there that I feel better about.

*Charles Oakley is mad at Lowry and DeRozan.


The line
Game 1: Raptors -4.5 (Heat 102, Raptors 96, OT)
Game 2: Raptors -5 (Raptors 96, Heat 92, OT)
Game 3: Heat -5.5

This is kind of a strange and large swing. Raptors -5 suggested that the Raptors were a slightly better team on neutral court, while Heat -5.5 would suggest the same about the Heat. With little having changed in terms of injuries, and with no new information about the matchup, the line tells us one of two things: The Heat (and maybe Raptors) have an abnormally large home-court advantage (possible, maybe even likely), or for whatever reason (like in Game 6 of the Indiana series), this game is unique. The line has mostly held, too, although I saw one book open it at -3.5 and then quickly correct. I do think the Raptors will split in Miami, but I’m guessing the loss comes today. (Sorry.)

Heat 95, Raptors 88

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