If the first two games of this series have shown us anything it’s that the Raptors have likely hit their ceiling. Mathematically and theoretically speaking there is still a chance for advancement and obviously we all hope for that but realistically speaking they’ve gone about as far as they’re going to go. This isn’t to be interpreted as a negative thing – this is the furthest the team has ever advanced and there are quite a few teams who took longer than they have to get this far. Some will try to downplay the importance of the Raptors advancement because people are awful but the team is one of the last four standing and not even their current struggles can take away from that.
On the one hand, it’s still great just to be here in the Eastern Conference Finals. I don’t think there has ever been a team that just became a champion or a contender over night – even when “super teams” are formed there are still things to figure out. Lebron’s Heat got to the Finals before they were fully equipped to win. The Golden State Warriors may have had one of the quickest ascensions to stardom that we’ve ever seen and even they didn’t win it all until their core players had been together for three years and they got some coaching issues worked out. The old adage “Rome wasn’t built in a day” certainly applies here, the highest levels of NBA success are attained incrementally. The Raptors have climbed a rung on the ladder.
This isn’t a series as much as it’s a learning experience for a Raptors team trying to get to the level of their opponent, and if they come out of this with a better idea of what they need to do to get there it’s a huge success for them. It’s obvious that most of what they’re trying to do on both ends of the floor isn’t doing much to slow down a truly elite team but they are at a point where their success isn’t measured by whether they win or lose or how close the games are, it’s measured by how they use the lessons of this playoff run to build something better.
On the other hand, it’s frustrating to see the team play like this. We can repeat “it’s good to be here” until we’re blue in the face but when the team hits the floor that’s not quite good enough. It’s a game just like any other and even though on some level we know that what we’ve seen in the first two games is the most likely outcome there’s still a part of us that expects the Raptors team we saw on 12/05/15 or 02/26/16 to take the court one last time to trade punches with the league’s elite. That team still hasn’t really shown up in the playoffs save for one vintage Lowry performance in the close out game against the Miami Heat but we still tune in, hoping for the long-awaited return to form.
That return to form certainly didn’t happen last night. It was an improvement over the opening game of the series, with the Raptors managing to stay in it until another end-of-quarter collapse in the 2nd put the game out of reach. The defensive issues were largely the same as what we saw in the opening game. The Raptors were unable to contain the ball and as good as Bismack Biyombo is – and as hard as he plays on every possession – he just can’t be everywhere at once. He can’t leave his man to help at the rim and still box out his man. He can’t wall off the paint to prevent guard penetration and prevent an outside shot from the screener. Even elite help defenders need someone, anyone, on their team to make things difficult for their man and tonight the Raptors didn’t provide much resistance. LeBron James is too much for DeMarre Carroll, who is likely not in peak condition after missing most of the season. Kevin Love is too burly and too skilled for any of the Raptors forwards to handle. The Raptors backcourt has long struggled to contain penetration or track shooters and we’ve seen a lot of that on display, with the Cavaliers getting a lot of open outside looks or frantic closeouts to attack.
The offense saw similar struggles, with the Cavaliers content to let DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry get the shots they want so long as those shots are not in the paint. The Raptors spent the season relying heavily on their all-star guards ability to create shot for others but that relies on their ability to draw the defense toward them – a shift in defensive strategy allowing them to get shots up really limits them in this capacity. Until either one of them demonstrates an ability to make the shots the defense is giving them the Cavaliers defense is not likely to alter this strategy and the spot up shooters who have been so effective for the Raptors all season long will have difficulty finding their rhythm. Barring a return of injured Raptor playoff legend Jonas Valanciunas there doesn’t seem to be a lot that the Raptors can do with their current personnel to adjust. There are no favourable mismatches or defensive weaknesses to exploit, just the hope that someone – anyone – catches fire long enough to keep the Raptors into it.
If there is one stat that sums up last night’s game – and the series so far – it’s this: the Raptors have taken 44 shots in the restricted area while the Cavs have taken 73. The Cavs are getting inside the Raptors defense far too often and you’re never going to beat a team with this many shooters if you allow a passer like Lebron into the paint. This inability to get inside the Cavs defense and keep them out of the paint goes beyond points in the paint, helping the Cavs maintain their advantages at the free throw line, on the backboards and from outside the three point arc. The Raptors were able to make enough shots for a short period of time to keep the game close but in every game of basketball the team getting the better shots will likely be the one who pulls away and so far that’s been the Cavs. The Raptors need to dig deep on defense and reach deep into the coaching staffs bag of tricks to find some room on offense or they may not be in the Eastern Conference Finals long enough for us to truly enjoy it.
Whether the Raptors turn it around and pull out some moral victories or even a series win is irrelevant at this point because they’re already the best team in franchise history. I know that drum has been beat a lot lately but it’s important to keep that in mind as the team struggles to find anything they can consistently do well against this Cavs juggernaut. Win or lose this series is not the end for the Raptors, it’s just another brief stop on a long journey to the top of the league and the team only fails here if their growth halts. So long as they identify the deficiencies that are causing them to struggle in the postseason and properly address them in the offseason, this series – like the entire season, with all its ups and downs – is nothing but sunshine. The Raptors will try to extend this magical season a little further on Saturday evening at 8:30 but in the event that they’re not able to do that let’s make sure that we turn out and give the team the send off it deserves.
