So, you know how the Raptors seem to have this weird thing against the Sacramento Kings, where they always play poorly and rarely win, often losing in very strange ways? Well, the Raptors are the Los Angeles Clippers’ Kings – Toronto has won four in a row against the Clippers, never winning by fewer than 11 points as the Clippers inexplicably turn in terrible showing after terrible showing.
In that sense, maybe Monday’s game is a blessing. On the other hand, this is the second night of a back-to-back and the team’s fifth game in seven days, the previous four of which went down to the wire. Here’s the minutes load on the Raptors over the last week with just shy of 6,000 kilometers of travel on top:
So this could go one of three ways: The Raptors are completely gassed and come out flat, the Clippers turn in their usual awful performance and the Raptors are gifted a win they jump all over the opportunity to steal one, or they split the difference and we’re in for a fifth consecutive game that turns our already-too-many-colors beard a little more grey.
The game tips off at 10:30 on TSN 2 and TSN 1050, shouts to Duane Watson.
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To help set the stage, I reached out to noted Drake enthusiast and ESPN NBA editor Jovan Buha.
Blake Murphy: Look, man. I’ve HAD Lasik. Lasik isn’t responsible for what’s going on with Chris Paul to start the year. What are you seeing that’s somehow taken maybe the best point guard of this generation to an even higher level?
Jovan Buha: Chris Paul’s 3-point and free throw percentages have quietly risen over the past few seasons, so I would likely attribute his bump in efficiency this season to him working on his spot-up and pull-up shooting in the offseason as his quickness and athleticism wane. Paul is a perfectionist, and with shooting becoming paramount to elite offenses in the modern NBA, he’s figured out how to change his game and remain elite. Paul also has a bit of Steve Nash in his game — he’s an efficient scorer who can sometimes be passive and look for teammates even when he’s open. Paul has found a delicate balance over the past couple of seasons, and it’s helped boost his numbers. I’m sure Lasik surgery can’t hurt, though.
Blake Murphy: Short of the home loss to Memphis thanks to Marc Gasol’s ludicrous 3-point shooting, the Clippers have looked more or less untouchable. Even when they haven’t, they’re winning games. Not only are they 12-2 with by far the highest net rating in the league, even when adjusting for quality of competition, they’re worlds better than everyone else so far – by Baksetball Reference’s Adjusted Net Rating, the gap between the Clippers and Spurs (No. 2) is larger than the gap between the Spurs and the Grizzlies (No. 14). So my question is, how long before Drake transitions from Warriors fandom to being a regular at Clippers games?
Jovan Buha: He already is. He’s just often rooting for the other team (usually the Raptors, Warriors, Cavaliers or Thunder when they had Kevin Durant). It’s odd, though, because Chris Paul gave him a massive co-sign on “So Far Gone” back in the day, and Paul and Griffin are teammates of Drizzy’s in the Jordan family. And who can forget the classic ESPYs skit between Blake and Drake? It’s only a matter of time until Drake is The Lob God.
Blake Murphy: Perhaps the biggest surprise is the Clippers performing as a top-two defense for this long. Has anything changed on that end over years past, or is it just an extension of the roster being locked in from the outset rather than figuring it out mid-season this time around?
Jovan Buha: Well, the Clippers were the fourth-best defense after Jan. 1 last season (and fifth overall), so it seems like they’ve simply picked up where they left off. Continuity is key, as this is the first time the Clippers have really carried over a starting lineup into the next season over the past few years (and, even then, Blake Griffin missed almost 50 games last season). Chris Paul, Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and J.J. Redick have been together for four years now, and the bench is deeper than it’s ever been. I don’t suspect they’ll be the best defense this season, but a top 3-to-7 finish is reasonable, if not likely.
Blake Murphy: Are you at all worried that this is the game in which Terrence Ross defeats Jamal Crawford and assumes his powers as the Pacific Northwest Sixth Man Gunner King?
Jovan Buha: No. Don’t disrespect Jamal Crawford with that question. Terrence Ross has had his moments against the Clippers, but Crawford has magically found a way to evade Father Time. Gimme J. Crossover all day. If anything, the real threat is in Boston, assuming a starting role (don’t kill me, Celtics fans).
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Raptors updates
Recent patterns suggest the Raptors could be without DeMarre Carroll in this one. While he looked pretty good Sunday, the team has sat him for one leg of each of their two back-to-backs to date. They haven’t said for certain that will always be the case, but it makes sense on the surface to expect him out here. (And the decision to sit him here, where he’d be guarding the likes of Luc Mbah a Moute and Alan Anderson instead of Rudy Gay, makes sense). Anyway, we’ll list him as in until we hear otherwise, but it seems more likely that DeMar DeRozan will slot on Mbah a Moute, with Norman Powell being recalled from the dead to chase J.J. Redick through a dangerous forest of screens.
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
SF: DeMarre Carroll, Terrence Ross
PF: Patrick Patterson, Pascal Siakam
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Lucas Nogueira, Jakob Poeltl
ASSIGNED: Fred VanVleet, Bruno Caboclo
OUT: Delon Wright, Jared Sullinger
Clippers updates
The Clippers could be down a pair of Johnsons in Brice (back) and Wesley (heel), though in Wesley’s case, he’s “hopeful” to return for this one. Johnson’s absence has led to the Clippers playing more multi-guard lineups, pushing Austin Rivers primarily to the two and putting Jamal Crawford on the wing far more often than we’re accustomed to seeing. A Johnson return would probably also push Paul Pierce back out of the rotation, except for the final 30 seconds, where he’ll surely come in to hit a big dagger and then troll Raptors fans with a crying Drake meme or something.
PG: Chris Paul, Raymond Felton
SG: J.J. Redick, Austin Rivers
SF: Luc Mbah a Moute, Jamal Crawford, Alan Anderson
PF: Blake Griffin, Brandon Bass, Paul Pierce
C: DeAndre Jordan, Mo Speights, Diamond Stone
TBD: Wesley Johnson
The line
The Raptors are 8-point underdogs, a line that seems enormous with four consecutive victories over the Clippers but one that makes complete sense given the Raptors’ potential fatigue and the level the Clippers are playing on. I don’t have a great feeling about this one. I do feel pretty confident in the under at the current 211 mark. A loss here would put some pressure on the Houston and Milwaukee visits to “salvage” the trip, although a 2-3 five-set is probably a reasonable enough outcome (just not the goal).
