It seems no Toronto Raptors season would be complete without a west coast road trip with results that were somewhat underwhelming. The 2014-15 version of this trip featured back to back blowout losses to the Warriors and Suns that ultimately ended Terrence Ross’ stint as an NBA starter. The 2015-16 iteration had a close loss to the Warriors and an impressive win over the Clippers but also featured losses to Kings and Jazz clubs that would end up in the lottery. If the Raptors spend a few days in California and get routed through Utah or Arizona it’s almost a given that we are going to be punished by some objectively awful basketball somewhere along the way.
True to form, this year’s extended west coast trip has yielded mixed results. They fought hard against the Warriors but fell flat on their faces against the Suns and Blazers and only beat an injury-depleted Jazz team and a mediocre Lakers team because Kyle Lowry shifted into that extra gear he has. What should have been an easy 5-2 trip has been downgraded to an ugly 5-2 trip or an even uglier 4-3 trip. The optimists in the mix will say that a win is a win and having more points at the end of the game is the only thing that matters but when you are among the league’s elite who you beat and how you beat them starts to take on more importance. Season to date the Raptors have been somewhat underwhelming in this respect, with a combination of flat performances against teams they should handle with ease and some really frenzied performances to keep pace with the other teams at the top of the standings. Season to date their signature wins against healthy opponents are an impressive win over a solid Rockets team and road victories over Oklahoma City and Charlotte; everything else has been teams that are around or below .500 or teams missing crucial players. You can only play the opponent that shows up but they’ve had ample opportunity to secure wins against impressive teams and have come up short each time.
Today’s game marks their next opportunity, closing out this road trip in San Antonio against a Spurs team that is likely to be at full strength. In the past this has been a big contrast of styles but at least on the offensive end the two teams are functionally the same, even if they accomplish their goals in very different ways. They’re both near the top of the league in three point percentage but near the bottom in volume, preferring to use the threat of the outside shot to open up space for their slashing and post play. Looking at each teams four factors gives you some quick insight into their similarities and differences:
Both teams use their deadly outside shooting to clear out space inside and do damage at the free throw line, ranking high in free throws made per field goal attempted. Neither team pushes the pace as a matter of principle, preferring to pick their spots to run for easy transition opportunities but they’re both at their best when they see a lot of halfcourt motion; if the Raptors offense returns to their late November-early December form we could see one of the more physically exhausting slow-paced games of the year with the attacking style of both teams not allowing any time for the defense to rest.
The offensive end is where the similarities end, however. The Spurs are once again a top 5 defensive team while the Raptors have only recently managed to claw their way to respectability, ranking 16th in the league in defensive efficiency. Unlike year past the difference between the two teams is not the presence of Tim Duncan in the middle; the Spurs spend the bulk of the game with defensive mediocrity manning the middle in Pau Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge. The difference between the two teams is a stellar crop of San Antonio perimeter defenders, with the former Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard being joined by the always underrated Danny Green, aging but still effective Manu Ginobili and a fantastic energy player in Jonathan Simmons. There’s enough length and savvy there to give the Raptors perimeter oriented attack fits, and the game may be decided by the fact that it’s tough to see who on the Raptors will do the same. Maybe Good DeMarre Carroll shows up or we get one of those locked in Terrence Ross performances but you can set your watch by the Spurs defense; it’s never clear if anyone not named Patrick Patterson or Kyle Lowry will even show up on that end for the Raptors.
The biggest question mark for the Raptors is the status of Patterson, one of the two brains on the Raptors roster. If he’s not good to go and the Raptors have to rely on rookie Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl or have Carroll bang with Aldridge in the post the Raptors will need a lot of good bounces and a superhuman effort to pull out the victory. The fact that he was a game time scratch and there was a rest day in between games bodes well for the Raptors, because Patterson is arguably the second most important player on the team.
The flip side of the Raptors struggles against elite teams is that something has to break their way at some point. They’ve some so close to the summit so many times this season without reaching the peak and they’re simply too good to not get there eventually. Even if they are technically not as good as the teams above them in the standings the gap is small enough that at some point the Raptors are going to overcome it by sheer force of will, and finishing a road trip in which you struggled with the Jazz minus George Hill and the Trail Blazers minus Damien Lillard with a victory against a fully manned Spurs squad would be the most Raptors outcome possible, like going 6 games against the Cavaliers in the ECF after barely surviving the previous two rounds against opponents that should have been dispatched easily. One of the Raptors trademarks during the Dwane Casey/Kyle Lowry years has been the unexpected, both good and bad, so with a Raptors squad that has been trending downward recently facing a steadily great Spurs team the stage is set for them to buck trends and defy conventional wisdom again with a victory.
