Toronto Raptors play host to the formidable San Antonio Spurs with tip-off at 7:00 PM, ET.
In their longest losing streak of the past 15 months, the Toronto Raptors are faced with a major challenge as they prepare to play back-to-back games versus two of the top Western teams. First up is the franchise the Raptors have tried to emulate, the San Antonio Spurs. Long recognized as the franchise template to copy, the Spurs have successfully maintained a winning program for two decades.
Many other franchises have tried to copy the Spurs system, but arguably the Raptors have been the most successful in this regard. And while Toronto has yet to reach their ultimate goal, they have kept their core together and steadily improved each of the past five seasons and are on track for a sixth.
Raptors losing streak:
For the first time since November 15-18, 2015, the Toronto Raptors suffered a three game losing streak. This speaks to how successful the Raptors have been at accomplishing their goal of consistency. Factoring in the early heinous road schedule and untimely injuries, perhaps it was a given this losing streak was inevitable. Furthermore, the loss of Patrick Patterson for 11 of the past 13 games has definitely taken a toll, affecting both the overall production of the bench and more specifically the defensive end of the court. As fate would have it, just as one Raptor returned to the court (Jared Sullinger) another is lost after DeMar DeRozan suffered a twisted ankle in the loss to Phoenix on Sunday.
Dog Days of January:
With 38 games remaining in the regular season the Toronto Raptors are embroiled in what is better known as the ‘Dog Days’ of January. During this section of the schedule teams are doing their very best to stay healthy until they reach the All-Star Break. After which refreshed squads will hit the trade deadline looking to either tweak their lineups or attempt to pull a major trade in an effort to thrust themselves into the upper echelon and become a contender. More importantly, this period is when the Raptors and their 29 counterparts will gear up, building momentum into mid April and the post season.
Although the recent 3-game losing skid is not ideal, it’s important to note the Raptors are not alone in their recent struggles. As of this morning a look at the past 10-games of all teams in the Association showcases only nine squads who have won more than 50 percent.
As of January 24:
- 8-2: Warriors, Spurs, Clippers, Wizards
- 7-3: Celtics, Hawks, 76ers, Jazz
- 6-4: Pacers
Toronto entered the week having played .500 ball in their past 10 games along with Cleveland, Chicago, Minnesota, Dallas and Phoenix. That number shifted to 9 teams after Monday with wins by the Thunder, Pistons, and Heat. While the Rockets loss dropped them to .500 and Cleveland fall out of this group (4-6) following their loss in New Orleans. Suffice to say, many teams are dealing with a very similar situation to the Raptors, and the list includes top teams who are playing without missing key contributors.
To that end, of the 9 squads who reside in the above .500 group several could find themselves on the outside of it shortly:
Indiana have lost 3-in-a-row, and only 2 of their past 10 games were against playoff seeds (Denver, Utah). Philly is shutting down Joel Embiid for a few games again, following a minor knee injury. The Hawks have faced only 3 playoff seeds in their past 10 games and lost two of them. LA Clippers will face a tough battle having lost Chris Paul for 6 to 8 weeks. This injury couldn’t have come at a worse time for LA who will play 9 of their next 12 games on the road facing the Warriors (3 times), as well as the Spurs, Jazz, Hawks, Celtics and Toronto. The Wizards have climbed all the way to fifth, but still have issues winning on the road (6-14). And, the Celtics who have played just 2 road games in their past 10, rank 25th defensively over this period.
As for the other Eastern team who Toronto is chasing, the Cavaliers are spiraling, having to finally face teams out West. Furthermore, the addition of Kyle Korver added another 3 point specialist, but also created issues defensively, especially when any of Korver, Irving, Love or Frye share the court.
My point is of the listed teams only the Clippers were without a key player (Blake Griffin) over the past 10 games and none were dealing with the loss of their top defender. Golden State, the Spurs and the Jazz are the only teams who realistically can be expected to continue to win consistently. And with the impending return of Patterson, there is reason to believe the Raptors can return to form. More importantly, the recent losses can serve as a wake up call for the Raptors to improve defensively and work to offset the current trend to force someone other than Lowry or DeRozan to produce offensively.
Hey, it’s better the Raptors deal with these issues now then reach late March, and then try to fix these holes heading into the post season.
Patterson’s Prowess:
In case anyone ever doubted how much better the Raptors are with Patrick Patterson, the past 13 games has more than drilled home the point. Although the defense is a key factor, recently we are are witnessing how much his absence has affected the bench chemistry and production.
While examining the on court – off court statistics though I came across an amazing stat:
When Patterson is on court the Raptors defensive rating is 100.9 and when he is off court that rating climbs to 109.9 which helps to explain the Raptors recent troubles.
Although Kyle Lowry’s numbers have taken a bit of a hit (due no doubt to being without Patterson), he is equally important. To wit, Lowry has an on court defensive rating of 105.9 versus when he sits and the defensive rating sky rockets to 114.0 points. It’s also highly possible, Lowry’s recent offensive regression is tied to the bulldog trying to do too much on the defensive end, while Patterson is out. Regardless, Patterson’s return to the lineup should address some of the concerns including to help integrate Sullinger and provide Lowry with a defensive partner.
Toronto Raptors vs. Spurs Statistical Comparison:
A quick scan of the key stats shows both squads have a few areas of weakness combined with several areas of strength. San Antonio are poor at scoring in the paint and prefer a pedestrian pace. With the loss of Gasol the paint issue may become a greater concern, but Popovich is a master at tweaking his system to mask deficiencies. Meanwhile, the Raptors weakness lies in their need to rebound better, specifically on the defensive glass, and while Toronto’s assist total is low the Raptors offense is generated in a different manner than most of the Association.
Still, with the addition of Sullinger and Patterson scheduled to return shortly, both of these areas may have an easier resolution than if the team couldn’t shoot from the perimeter, for example.
Rather, the area Toronto should focus on is improving defensively. At their best the Raptors stop teams in transition, close out on perimeter shooters and via active aggressive defense are able to generate easy offense through the turnovers they create.
I won’t go as far as saying losing Patterson for this extended period and now DeRozan is a blessing in disguise, but I will say it occurred at a convenient point in the schedule. The Raptors while fatigued, are now recognizing the need to play with more grit and aggression, and are being reminded of how teams can shut them down in April if they don’t make strides to fix those issues now.
Interesting Side Notes:
- Last team the Spurs lost to (currently on a 4-game win streak) was the same Phoenix Suns who just beat Toronto
- This year’s Spurs are road masters having lost just 4 games all season (Chicago, Clippers, Hawks and Suns)
- Most impressively the Spurs have road wins versus the Warriors, Jazz, Rockets, Celtics (swept series), and Cavaliers.
- Of the top teams only the Clippers have beat them twice though they have yet to play the Grizzlies or the Thunder.
Normally I’d dive into key matchups and keys to winning, but given the uncertainty of who’ll suit up, I’ll simply state any of the Spurs players can perform like a super star on any given night. To wit, I caught some film of rookie Dejounte Murray who already seems to fit the “Spurs mold” and showcases moments of brilliance. Likewise, Davis Bertans is a player who will remind you of ex Raptor and Spur Matt Bonner (although with a purer shooting stroke) and Kyle Anderson I’m sure is the reincarnation of Boris Diaw, hence his aptly titled nickname Slo Mo.
I’d be remiss not to mention the enigma that is Kawhi Leonard, who routinely defends every position, and is equally adept at scoring 35 points on any given night. Isn’t it ironic, that as Tim Duncan retired, the man who is stepping in to fill his shoes is yet another fundamentally sound unicorn, who also happens to prefer few words or interactions with the media. With all due respect to LeBron James, Leonard is rapidly overtaking the King’s position as the best all around player in the Association (if he isn’t already).
Rotations and Copious Notes:
Predicting who’ll play and then segmenting them into starters versus reserves is almost impossible given the number of players on each team who are either injured, may be returning from injury, may be rested and how each coach views the match-up.
- Although Tony Parker has been nursing a sore foot, he could return this evening after sitting the past three games
- Manu Ginobili sat out with (listed) back spasm in Brooklyn, but it could just as easily have been for rest.
- Kawhi Leonard is nursing a sore left hand, so Pops gave him the night off in Brooklyn. Expect him to dress tonight
- Pau Gasol underwent surgery to repair a broken 4th metacarpal (ring finger)
- DeMar DeRozan will miss both the Spurs and Grizzlies games due to the twisted ankle he sustained versus the Suns
- Patrick Patterson took part in practice Monday after missing 11 of the last 13 games due to a sore knee. He is listed as a game time decision.
- Pregame Sunday, Dwane Casey said Patterson would be available to play in the next outing which would be tonight. But, after a discussion with Blake he brings up a valid point. Will the Raptors want to have Patterson play in back-to-back games as soon as he returns? Or will they elect to rest Patterson one more game, starting him on the road in Memphis instead.
- The Spurs played last night and as noted they sat Leonard, Parker, and Ginobili. The starting lineup for the Spurs featured mainstays Danny Green and LaMarcus Aldridge, but the point, small forward and center positions were filled by rookie Dejounte Murray, Kyle Anderson and Dewayne Dedmon. The main difference in the game versus the Cavaliers (when Leonard played) was Popovich started David Lee instead of Dedmon.
Based purely on gut instinct, here’s my thoughts on who suits up and which lineup they play in, along with my reasoning:
RAPTORS STARTING 5:
Point Guard: Kyle Lowry
Shooting Guard: Norman Powell
Small Forward: DeMarre Carroll
Power Forward: Lucas Nogueira
Center:Jonas Valanciunas
RAPTORS RESERVES:
Point Guard: Cory Joseph, Fred VanVleet
Shooting Guard:
Small Forward: Terrence Ross, Bruno Caboclo
Power Forward: **Patrick Patterson, Jared Sullinger, Pascal Siakam
Center: Jakob Poeltl
Notes:
- My guess is Norman Powell gets the start in DeRozan’s spot. This is based on the assumption Parker returns to the starting lineup for the Spurs. If not, Dwane Casey may elect to utilize Ross as the combination of Murray and Green offers a much lengthier backcourt which could cause issues for two shorter guards. Although Murray is a rookie he’s showcased a natural ease on court and (like all Spurs) fits well into the system.
- I’m also going to assume Lucas Nogueira gets the start given Casey doesn’t like to make copious changes at one time
- Finally, I want to believe Patterson will be dressed and get minutes. Having him in the lineup to face a top notch defense would pay immediate dividends. In addition, Patterson’s return is crucial for the Raptors bench to rediscover their chemistry which has been AWOL in the past 3 games, save for Cory Joseph.
- That said, the one reason (aside from Blake’s sage advice) to believe Patterson definitely won’t play is a comment DeRozan made following practice “it sucks me and Pat having to watch“. Now he may have meant the practice, but it does point the arrow toward the likelihood Patterson is more likely not to play.
SPURS STARTING 5:
Point Guard: *Tony Parker
Shooting Guard: Danny Green
Small Forward: Kawhi Leonard
Power Forward: LaMarcus Aldridge
Center: Dewayne Dedmon
SPURS RESERVES:
Point Guard: Patty Mills, Dejounte Murray
Shooting Guard: *Manu Ginobili, Jonathan Simmons, Bryn Forbes
Small Forward: Kyle Anderson, Davis Bertans
Power Forward: David Lee
Center: Joel Anthony
Notes:
- We will know immediately how much respect the Raptors have garnered from Gregg Popovich based on who starts and who plays.
- My gut instinct tells me Parker gets the start. Why else have him travel with the team knowing he was slated to miss the first two games versus Cleveland and Brooklyn. Especially since the final game of the road trip is in New Orleans where Parker could have met the team.
- Both Leonard and Ginobili will be back and ready to play
- I think Pops starts Dedmon to deal with Valanciunas. Though JV has long had issues against his nemesis Pau Gasol, the other player who has owned him is Aldridge. But, if Pops saw the Orlando Magic game last season he’ll be well aware Dedmon was a beast who had his way against both JV and Biyombo.
Ultimately, this truly is a guess, as any number of combinations could occur, especially for the Spurs. I could have put faces on a dartboard and had about the same chance of being correct in my assessments. Make sure to check back for Blake’s pregame news and notes for confirmation on who dresses, and gets the start.
Game Specifics:
Recent History: The Spurs hold the all-time record 30-11. After 7 consecutive losses Toronto has split the last two seasons with the Spurs each winning on their home court. Each of the past 2 season’s meetings were relatively close with the final score at or under 10 points. That changed in the most recent outing when the Raptors arrived at the end of a very arduous schedule and the Spurs blew them out by 28 points.
Referee Assignments: Danny Crawford (#43), Pat Fraher (#26), and Ben Taylor (#46)
Fan Data:
The Venue: Air Canada Center, Toronto, Ontario
The Tip: 7:00 PM EST
TV: Sportsnet 1
Radio: TSN Radio 1050
The Line: The early line has the Spurs as 2.5 favorites and an over-under of 206 points. Since home teams get the automatic 2 to 3 point edge this means the experts are giving the Spurs a 4.5 to 5.5 edge to win. If neither DeRozan or Patterson plays this one feels like a difficult game to win. Although the Spurs will be playing their fourth game in 6 nights, 3 core players arrive with an extra day of rest having not played in Brooklyn.
In Closing:
Let’s not kid ourselves, the Raptors are in tough for this match, especially without DeRozan and possibly Patterson. Then again, this Raptors squad has a penchant for rising to challenges when their backs are against the wall.
For the Raptors to win they’ll need to dictate pace, stay close through each quarter, and play aggressive defense. And without DeRozan the team will need to prioritize ball and player movement. Fortunately, when either of the star backcourt players have missed games it tends to be when the Raptors organically improve in this regard. Here’s hoping this occasion is no different.
Bottom line, this is the most adversity the Raptors have faced all season and it coincides ironically with the arrival of the team they are trying to pattern themselves after. Perhaps the greatest compliment they could send the Spurs way is to play 48 minutes of team basketball and have every player who hits the court remember why they started pounding that rock in the first place.
Will tonight result in yet another master class or can the students take the next step toward graduating?
Check back prior to game start, for Blakes news and notes pregame update.
