Before this past Sunday’s game, this preview of the matchup against the Orlando Magic would have had a lot more optimism. That the Raptors are now playing what feels like an almost must-win, revenge game against 19-32 Magic tells you a lot about how things have gone the last few weeks.
Having missed five of the last six games with an ankle injury, it’s unclear whether or not DeMar DeRozan will return to the lineup tonight. The Raptors cancelled shoot-around today in lieu of doing a walkthrough in their hotel, so we’re unlikely to know DeMar’s status until closer to game time than usual. The one game in the last stretch that DeMar did play was last Sunday’s loss against this Magic team, in which he put up 22 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists and the team was +4 when he was on the court for what turned out to be a 1 point loss. Having him back in the lineup would be a huge boost for an offense that is suddenly struggling in a big way to score.
Even with the offense losing a considerable amount of efficiency without DeRozan, defense has been where the Raptors have looked like a team worth worrying about. In recent losses, the Raps have let the Suns, Magic, Grizzlies and Celtics all score at a rate the same or better than what the (most efficient offense of all-time!) Golden State Warriors are averaging. It’s a problem. Lineups with Sullinger playing at the 4 have been getting roasted. Jonas’ bad defensive season has been vacillating between looking maybe OK sometimes and somehow even worse on other nights. Looking to lean on the only reliable thing the Raptors have right now—wing depth—Casey has rolled out some four man units of Lowry-Joseph-Ross-Powell and Lowry-Ross-Powell-Carroll. Those units have been interesting to watch, but they’ve also struggled to stop opponents from scoring.
While you would hope that Orlando’s 28th ranked offense would be exactly the kind of paltry opponent the Raptors need right now, Orlando put up 120 pp/100 on 53% shooting and 43% from 3 against them on Sunday. Those are Warriors when Steph is cooking numbers. The positives to take away from that last matchup are, first that the Raptors only lost by 1. Despite being an absolute turnstile on defense, they still almost beat the Magic. Secondly, the Raptors notably out rebounded the Magic and held a considerable advantage in getting to the line. If Nikola Vucevic and D.J. freaking Augustin don’t go a combined 6 of 9 from 3, the Raptors probably win that game. Personally, I’m more comfortable betting on the Raptors in an extended sample size than I am on Vucevic and Augustin, but it’s somehow players like Augustin who put on their Gerald Henderson-against-the-Raptors masks and inexplicably haunt this franchise. The Augustin-Payton-Watson backcourt should be something that comes out favourably in the Raptors favor though, with Lowry and DeRozan able to exploit the sub par and foul-prone defense of all 3 players. Dinos -4.5.
