There were a lot of words written about Terrence Ross during his time with the Raptors and whether they were good or bad they were all almost undoubtedly true at some point in time. Ross was a lot of different things to the Raptors over the years: an alluring young talent, an overmatched starter, a dynamic bench force, one of the worst defenders in the NBA, one of the top two way players on an Eastern Conference Finalist team – he went through a lot of different phases here. The decision to move him for Serge Ibaka was the right one, but the Raptors have lost a valuable player, one who managed to have a huge impact on the teams effectiveness despite his inconsistency and suspect decision making.
It would be a big mistake to try to measure the impact Ross had on the team by looking at his base statistics. Yes, the incoming Ibaka shoots threes at a slightly higher percentage and remaining Raptors DeMarre Carroll, Patrick Patterson and Norman Powell can be capable three point shooters but the volume isn’t the same nor is the impact on the defense. On the surface there isn’t much difference:
Ross has the highest volume, Ibaka has the highest percentage but with the exception of Powell there doesn’t seem to be a huge gap between the shooters remaining and Ross. The difference is not reflected in their base statistics, it’s more situational. There was an unpredictability with Terrence Ross, it was never really clear when he was going to feel he had sufficient space and rhythm to launch and that kept the defense extended and off balance. Outside of Kyle Lowry nobody left on the Raptors has his hair trigger or his gunslinger’s mentality. You can see this by looking at where the nearest defender is when they launch their threes:
The current Raptors shoot when they are wide open and are not threats if lightly guarded while Ross was a threat to pull up from almost anywhere at almost any time. This is a big part of the reason why the Raptors offense was 4.9 points per 100 possessions better with Ross on the floor. That kind of difference doesn’t come from merely making threes at a slightly higher rate, Ross’ ability to launch with little daylight kept his man close when he was off the ball and opened up space inside for his teammates. You can see a shift in where the Raptors shots came from with Ross on the floor:
There was a significant increase in three pointers with a slight increase in shots at the rim but that made a big difference for the team as a whole. When you look at how some players performed with and without Ross on the floor you can see this in some key areas. With Ross on the floor the Raptors roll men were much more effective: Lucas Nogueira’s FGA/36 was 2.1 without him and 5.9 with him while Valanciunas’ usage was not really affected but 66% of his attempts were dunks or layups with Ross on the floor vs 56% with him off; it’s doubtful that it’s a coincidence both of the Raptors roll men happened to be more effective with him. We saw Kyle Lowry’s three point percentage go up 4.6% and Norman Powell’s go up 6.5% with Ross on the floor, as that little bit of extra space he provided made it a bit easier to break down the defense and generate open looks. When you look deep into the Raptors performance with and without Ross this season you see little bits like this that all add up to the significant difference he made for them on the offensive end. That difference will not be easy for the Raptors to replace. None of this is meant to suggest that the trade was a mistake, just that Ross provided value in ways that were not readily apparent and that it’s unclear if anybody currently on the team can replace what he brought to the table.
If anybody currently on the roster is going to step up and fill that void it would be Norman Powell. By now it’s clear that Carroll, Patterson and Ibaka are not that kind of shooter and it’s highly doubtful that the unproven Delon Wright is either, but Powell has shown the ability to both improve facets of his game dramatically and adapt to what the team needs. It’s fairly unlikely that this happens as there’s a certain amount of innate ability in Ross’ shooting touch that Powell doesn’t have but with Powell’s work ethic nothing he achieves would really be surprising. The Raptors most likely path to replacing Ross’ shooting will likely involve bringing somebody new in, either in a deadline deal for one of the sharpshooters rumoured to be available like Nick Young or Danilo Gallinari or a shrewd offseason addition. However it ends up happening – internal growth, draft, free agency, trade – this is a need that the team will have to address if they hope to return to being the offensive juggernaut we saw to open this season.
