So, last night was fun. While the Toronto Raptors were closing out a tight, encouraging victory in D.C. against the Washington Wizards, the Milwaukee Bucks were hosting the Los Angeles Clippers and putting the boots to them early en route to an emphatic victory. A night later, both teams will look to shake off fatigue and win a second in a row to rebuild some important momentum for playoff seeding heading into the final month-and-change of the season. For Toronto, it’s about keeping pace in the race for the No. 2 or 3 seed, or at least securing home court in the first round. For Milwaukee, it’s a fight for playoff life, with the eighth seed clearly within sight.
History would suggest the Raptors are in good shape here. They match up well with the Bucks despite the home side’s length, and they’ve won each of the three previous meetings, doing so by a total of 44 points. But the Raptors are, of course, without Kyle Lowry, and they’ll enter on the second night of a road-road back-to-back. Milwaukee’s on a back-to-back, too, but they’ve been the home team for both and figure to have an advantage in that regard.
Toronto won’t use that as an excuse, though, not even in their fifth game in seven nights. This team had their low-energy game Wednesday, and they sent a clear message Friday that such efforts should be behind them. Milwaukee is a game opponent, to be sure. They’re a young, plucky team that can do some nice things on both ends of the floor. But the Raptors have urgency, too, and in winning four of five without Lowry out of the break, they’ve shown a fortitude that they’d tell you shouldn’t be expected to relax due to perceived fatigue or circumstance. This should be a fun one.
The game tips off at 8 on Sportsnet One and TSN 1050.
—
To help set the stage, I reached out to Mitchell Maurer of Brew Hoop, and he was kind enough to help us out.
Blake Murphy: When I reached out for the preview, you mentioned that you hate Bucks/Raptors games because the Bucks match up so poorly here. What, specifically, limits Milwaukee against Toronto?
Mitchell Maurer: The Bucks struggle against two types of guards: those with quick first steps, and those who have an uncanny knack for finding cracks in the defense. In DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, the Raptors have two guards that exemplify the respective peaks of those attributes. Even with Khris Middleton’s return, Milwaukee defense’s structural issues present guards like that more opportunities than they might find otherwise. Combined with a bevy of skilled wings and bigs, and the fact that Toronto has built up some considerable continuity, the Raptors are simply better than the Bucks right now, and it isn’t very close.
Blake Murphy: Does your evaluation of the matchup change much with Kyle Lowry out? The Bucks have been aggressive throwing a lot of length at Lowry and DeMar DeRozan in the form of traps and blitzes, and it stands to reason they’ll do that even more with only one All-Star to load up on.
Mitchell Maurer: All that said, Kyle Lowry’s absence changes things greatly. Nothing against Cory Joseph or Norm Powell, but Lowry was the East’s best guard this season (in my opinion), and any time that he misses is huge. The Bucks’ aggression on defense is unflinchingly rigid when it comes to deciding which opponents to attack and which to hold back against, a trait some Bucks fans have grown tired of. They will still blitz Toronto’s guards as often as possible, and a Lowry-less backcourt presents a far lower degree of difficulty for the Bucks.
Blake Murphy: Khris Middleton returns and Jabari Parker hits the shelf. I’m so sorry, man. Obviously, that sucks for a lot of reasons, but the biggest one might be that the Bucks looked like a potential eighth-seed in the East when fully healthy. Is that dream dead for this year? Might one more turn in the lottery be for the best, anyway?
Mitchell Maurer: Yeah…it sucks. It really really sucks. In terms of playoff seeding, the Bucks still have a puncher’s chance at the 7th or 8th seed, depending on which other Eastern Conference teams take a stumble or three. Many Bucks fans are clamoring for another trip to the lottery, but I think that more losing would cause nothing but problems for this team. Historically, the Bucks have been a team that is more than the sum of its parts, and any postseason success was due to hard work and good luck. Now, with Giannis Antetokounmpo at the helm, the name of the game has to be chasing whatever success is within reach, and finding capable sidekicks to help carry the load. We’re finding out that some of the Bucks’ role players are not who we thought they were, but that doesn’t mean that adding more youth to a team led by a 22-year old is a solution.
Blake Murphy: You guys signed Axel Toupane! That’s amazing. He’s been terrific for Raptors 905 for two seasons now, and the Raptors’ organization remained high on him, just without any course of action to do anything about it. Where do you see him fitting in for the short-term? (I hope to be asking this as a long-term question sometime soon.)
Mitchell Maurer: As a self-described basketball aficionado…I had no idea who Axel Toupane was until I saw him in my mentions. He offers depth at the wing, which the Bucks need, and appears to be pretty versatile, which Jason Kidd likes. On nights where Michael Beasley is putting up bricks and Mirza Teletovic is mysteriously glued to the bench, I can see Toupane getting some decent minutes with the second unit. Anything beyond the next 25ish games is a crapshoot.
Blake Murphy: With Joel Embiid back on the shelf, is Malcolm Brogdon suddenly the most off-radar Rookie of the Year candidate ever?
Mitchell Maurer: This is a sad question for all sorts of reasons. However, Malcolm Brogdon has been a HUGE hit in Milwaukee, and it’s easy to see why. He’s a steady game-manager who makes good passes… and also happens to be willing to attack open lanes and get to the rim, while also hitting an astounding .414 from deep, and also playing solid defense at a tough position. Humble Moses (low key, one of my favorite nicknames) does a number of things well without taking very much away, and he’s going to be a successful NBA player for a long time. With Jojo sidelined indefinitely, the only other rookie I can see making a ROY run is fellow 76er Dario Saric, but I like Brogdon’s chances.
—
Raptors updates
The Raptors tightened their rotation to nine on Friday, and Jonas Valanciunas actually played fewer minutes than anyone else. There was no backup center, with the Raptors playing to a plus-26 mark in 35 minutes with either Serge Ibaka or Patrick Patterson at center. Patterson at the five might be tough against certain Milwaukee looks, but if there were ever a team that being able to switch all over the floor made sense against, it’s the Bucks. It will once again be on Valanciunas, then, to assert himself on the glass and swing his battle, because Dwane Casey won’t hesitate to go elsewhere if need be. There’s still an obvious place for Valanciunas on this team and in this rotation, but he needs to shake off his recent rut, especially for the Greg Monroe portions of this matchup.
Elsewhere, there aren’t many questions. Delon Wright is playing well as the backup point guard, two wings off the bench are contributing, and Jakob Poeltl may still be ahead of Lucas Nogueira if a backup center is required. DeMar DeRozan was also the only Raptor to play more than 33 minutes Friday (he played 38), so there shouldn’t be any need to go away from a player or look based on tired legs (Patrick Patterson appeared to favor his left knee very briefly Friday but stayed in the game).
PG: Cory Joseph, Delon Wright, Fred VanVleet
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
SF: DeMarre Carrol, P.J. Tucker
PF: Serge Ibaka, Patrick Patterson, Pascal Siakam
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira
TBD: None
ASSIGNED: Bruno Caboclo
OUT: Kyle Lowry
Bucks updates
Well hello there, Thon Maker, starting center! Maker got the nod Friday and turned in 16 somewhat iffy minutes, but it’s telling about the Bucks’ approach right now, and Maker’s own development, that Jason Kidd has turned to him like this. With Jabari Parker unfortunately injured and John Henson out of favor, the Bucks don’t have perfect options at the five, and they like Monroe off the bench for however many minutes are needed from him. Spencer Hawes theoretically looms, too, and he’s the prototypical Raptor-killing big, but his role has been small since he was acquired. Henson could just as easily find his way back in, too, given how fluid Kidd’s rotations have been.
No Parker has meant the Bucks start smaller, with a Giannis Antetokounmpo-Tony Snell-Khris Middleton trio that’s impossible to assign actual positions too. The length all over the floor is a fun challenge, and bringing Matthew Dellavedova off the bench to give that group some more shooting should work well, in theory. It’s unclear when and if Terrence Jones might work his way into the mix, but he’s expected to be in uniform for the first time on Saturday, an interesting subplot to watch.
Also interesting for Raptors fans: Axel Toupane is here! He’s only played seven scoreless minutes in two appearances so far, but it will be a nice moment if he gets to square off with some familiar faces and the organization that helped get him back to this level.
PG: Malcolm Brogdon, Matthew Dellavedova
SG: Tony Snell, Jason Terry, Rashad Vaughn
SF: Khris Middleton, Axel Toupane, Steve Novak
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (Terrence Jones), Mirza Teletovic
C: Thon Maker, Greg Monroe, John Henson
TBD: Terrence Jones
ASSIGNED: None
OUT: Jabari Parker, Michael Beasley
The line
The Raptors are 2-point favorites with a 206 over-under. Picking any road team on the second night of a back-to-back is tough, but the Raptors are better than the Bucks, even shorthanded, and the line isn’t costing you too many important points here.
