If you’re on team “fire Dwayne Casey”, this probably isn’t the article for you, but perhaps it will help change your mind.
With the exception of the great Gregg Popovich, their is fair criticism to be made of most head coaches in the NBA. Most coaches, much like players, develop, hone their craft, and get better. However, often certain rosters don’t fit their style of play and they struggle to adapt.
I used to criticize coach Casey, mainly after the 2014-2015 season, where a collapse against the Washington Wizards saw the Raptors out of the playoffs in a quick four games. The following season my thoughts on Casey did a complete 180. No doubt the roster changed to better fit Casey’s style, and the Raptors star players had great seasons. Last year the Raptors exceeded most fans expectations given their roster, I would go as far to say they maximized their teams potential to the best of their best abilities. Perhaps coaching had something to do with this.
How many times have we seen a great team, with a great roster falter because of their coach? The Golden State Warriors didn’t became the super team until they replaced Marc Jackson with Steve Kerr. Although it’s a lot easier to look at player performance, and roster construction, and say “Oh that’s why they are a good team.”, I would argue good coaching can make a significant difference in how teams perform. Coaches are often the scape goats when the going gets tough, but overall they can be very tough to judge unless they have prolonged success.
At the end of this season, the win/loss column might show the Raptors didn’t improve or capitalize on the success they had last year, and a lot of that will be determined by how they do in the playoffs. Even if their win loss record isn’t as good as the previous season, or they don’t play as many playoff games this year, it won’t show that the coaching staff has also taken steps forward this year.
This season has had some major hurdles, most of them out of the coaches control. The main one being health. Starting the season the Raps were forced to start Pascal Siakam for the injured Jared Sullinger. One of the Raptors key bench players Patrick Patterson missed significant time with a knee injury. DeMar DeRozan missed time with a sprained ankle. DeMarre Carroll has had a number of different injuries and has not been or looked completely healthy all season. And since the All-Star break Kyle Lowry has been out recovering from wrist surgery. All in all, the Raptors have been the third most injured team in the league this year, trailing only the Miami Heat, and Philadelphia 76ers in total games missed due to injuries. Players on the Raptors have missed a total of 153 games due to injuries, yet unlike the Sixers and Heat this team is in striking distance of a top three seed, and another 50-win season.
Dealing with injuries isn’t all coaching, it also speaks to the Raptors depth, and some of the role players who have stepped up in big ways. Since the All-Star break, the Raptors have had to completely change their rotations. Trying to find someone who can replace Lowry is a huge task, and quite frankly replacing Lowry’s presence is impossible. If replacing Lowry in the starting lineup wasn’t already tough, the coaching staff would have to devise a rotation that could make up for the uber efficient minutes the Lowry+bench unit played.
Casey has done a great job adapting to the loss of Lowry, all while implementing two new players into the system. The transition has been seamless, rolling out three new rotations, that have worked well enough to give the Raptors a 12-5 record since the All-Star break, and provided much improved defense.
The starting lineup obviously substituted Joseph in for Lowry, and Ibaka into the power forward position, but starting off games continues to be where the Raptors struggle most. The new starting lineup has played a total of 60 minutes together, posting an ugly defensive rating of 118.8, and a net rating of -12.5. The lineup that has dominated a majority of fourth quarters, is when the Raptors opt to bring newly acquired P.J. Tucker off the bench for DeMarre Carroll. The starters + Tucker lineup put up some pretty wild numbers, 123.6 offensive rating, 107.1 defensive rating, all together a whopping +16.5 net rating.
The spacing on this lineup with Joseph’s improved three point range, Ibaka’s pick and pop ability, and Tucker being a corner three assassin, allows the Raptors to space out and run high pick and roll with DeRozan. With the shooters in the right spaces, DeRozan has a ton of room to go inside and to work around the basket. With DeRozan’s improved play making ability and awareness, the spacing has vastly improved the Raptors ball movement. They now get a lot of easy shots leading to a 61.2% true shooting percentage.
This lineup is also a force defensively, Tucker has become the Raptors best perimeter defender, and Ibaka has become a solid rim protector even when paired with Jonas Valanciunas. With three very capable rebounders on the floor, this lineup has a 87.5% defensive rebounding percentage. Thinking about what this lineup could look like with Lowry in it is a scary thought, and come playoff time, this is the lineup you will likely see closing out games for the Raptors.
Casey had also been criticized in the past for not playing the younger players. Now, he’s rolling out an all bench lineup starring Delon Wright, Jakob Poeltl, and Norman Powell. With veteran defenders like Tucker and Patterson also in this lineup, teams are having a tough time scoring on this youthful, defense first lineup. While this lineup hasn’t seen as much time as the others, it’s defense hasn’t gone unnoticed, and he continues to roll out this lineup nearly every game. With a defensive rating of 84, opponents become gassed on offense trying to score on this lineup. Unfortunately, the same effects happen on the offensive end for this youth lineup, posting an 87.2 offensive rating. If this lineup could score a little bit more, it could be very effective. If Norman Powell isn’t driving to the basket, this lineup lacks a creator most of the time. A lot of teams (specifically the Dallas Mavericks), have packed the paint and gone zone against this lineup, forcing them to shoot. A lot of these possessions end with very little ball movement, and a late shot clock heave. While it might be ugly basketball when this lineup hits the floor, it can still have stretches of encouraging play and shut down defense.
Here’s what we know about coach Casey. He is a coach that has shown tremendous growth over his tenure, he has a .544 winning percentage with the Raptors despite only winning 57 games in his first two years, he also has a secret “give a crap” meter which no other coach in the NBA possesses. Throughout the history of the Raptors, the words “stable” and “head coach” never ever got close to each other. Is he Gregg Popovich? No. Is he a good NBA coach? YES! The Raptors have been most successful under his regime, players for the most part have bought into his defense first mentality, and most importantly this year when the team faced some major adversity, Casey perfectly executed the changes that needed to happen. With a win against the Dallas Mavericks the other night, the Raptors clinched a playoff spot for the fourth consecutive year. Four straight years of playoff basketball has never happened in Raptors history, maybe it’s time fans start giving coach Casey the credit he deserves.
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