Entering this season, the expectations of Raptors rookie Jakob Poeltl were all over the place. After acquiring a first round pick in the Andrea Bargnani trade from the Knicks a few years ago, Poeltl became the Raptors first lottery pick since Terrence Ross back in 2012. It can sometimes be tough to judge how a high draft pick will perform on a team where consistent minutes aren’t guaranteed. Poeltl didn’t see much playing time early in the season, stuck behind Jonas Valanciunas and Lucas Nogueira in the depth chart. From the start of the season to January, Poeltl only saw time in fifteen games, mostly getting run in the fourth quarter of blowout games. During that small amount of time, Poeltl continued to impress, and the playing time slowly increased with every nice outing.
Since February, he has seen time in just about every game. Even with the addition of Serge Ibaka and the improving play from Valanciunas, Poeltl has cemented himself as the go to center off the bench. With Poeltl getting more consistent playing time, we have a better idea of what kind of NBA player he will become on the offensive end. He has shown the talent/skills to be a very good rotation player on a good team in the future. Now the question has shifted to “how good he could be in year two or three?”
Poeltl has a lot of offensive skills, even pre-draft you could see his skill set would translate over to the NBA very nicely. The Raptors don’t run a ton of post plays for their front court players, relying mainly on high pick and roll and isolation plays. The Raptors average 12.7 post touches per game, second last in the NBA (12.9 Post All-Star break), despite having players like Valanciunas and Ibaka. Post All-Star break, Poeltl is getting 2.2 post touches a game, the same amount as Ibaka.
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As you can see from the GIF above, Poeltl has some nice foot work in the post. This move is a pretty skilled up and under, finishing with his off hand. However, his greatest weakness is what’s holding him back from taking on NBA centers with his post scoring – his strength. Listed at 7”0, 230lbs, Poeltl doesn’t quite have the NBA body to take on a lot of veteran NBA big men. This is a pretty common issue for a lot of young NBA players, the transition of building strength and conditioning usually happens sometime in year two or three. Once he gets the body to muscle some of the NBA’s elite 7”0 footers, and the reps of conditioning through an 82 game season, he will be able to show off his offensive skills more easily.
Knowing the post moves skills are there is already very encouraging, but those shots aren’t coming for him right now. Instead, Poeltl has relied on his other offensive skills to score this season. He has shown that he is a really smart cutter and he’s been very efficient in doing so, shooting 57% at the rim. Occupying space a lot of the time on the baseline, when the defense collapses on the ball handler, Poeltl does a great job of getting into the paint at the right spot at the right time for easy finishes. The video below shows a couple of Poeltl’s great baseline cuts, the first clip Norman Powell draws threes defenders on a drive to the basket, Poeltl slips right behind Denzel Valentine, and finishes with a really nice touch. The second clip, he recognizes the defense shifting up to stop Cory Joseph from getting to the basket, Joseph fires off a quick pass to Poeltl cutting along the baseline for a nice reverse layup at the basket.
The other really impressive aspect of Poeltl’s game, is his ability to crash the offensive glass. With his impressive agility, and his great rebounding instincts, Poeltl has pulled down almost as many offensive rebounds (73) as defensive rebounds (75) this season. He’s a great rebounder on both ends of the floor, despite his current lack of strength, he’s does a great job finding his way around defenders and getting to the glass, boasting an impressive 14.7% offensive rebounding percentage. The sample size is obviously small, but it should be noted that his OREB% is higher than Valanciunas, and is about the same as Tristan Thompson, arguably the best offensive rebounder in the league.
It will be interesting to see how NBA teams scouting changes his offensive glass crashing abilities. Much like his post moves, with increased strength he could become an even bigger threat moving smaller players out the way to get put back layups. At the same time, teams will eventually catch on, making a point to send bigger/more defenders to prevent him from prolonging any possession.
The few areas of his offensive game that will need improvement are finishing around the rim with more conviction (dunking), and free throw shooting. Being a little soft around the rim at times is a pretty common weakness for first year players. Maybe he gets away with lazier shots in college facing much smaller centers, but in the NBA the players are too smart defensively, and will take advantage of any half hearted attempt at the rim. With this being a learning curve most young players have to get over, soon enough Poeltl will be finishing off some of those easier layups he can miss at times.
Right now he’s shooting 54.5% from the line, but has only attempted 52 free throws in the NBA, add in the 10 he’s attempted in the D-League, and he’s shooting 51% on the year on 62 shots. The sample might be small, but poor free throw shooting isn’t something that’s new to Poeltl. In his first year in college with Utah, he shot 43.3% on 3.6 attempts per game, in his second year he shot 69.4%, doubling his attempts. His form at the line actually looks pretty good, but shots can be flat at times. Once settled in it wouldn’t be surprising for him to regain the numbers he had in his final year at Utah.
His shooting is something that could be improved overall, if he plans on occupying the short corner spaces, that wouldn’t be a bad place for him to develop a nice touch from. The short corner area is a weird part of the floor, if a player is standing there on the weak side it’s usually because they can’t post up, and aren’t a threat from three. At times, it can create some weird spacing issues, but if you have a player like Poeltl who can finish competently around the rim, it can open up some really easy shots.
Another player who does a good job at occupying the short corners is Denver Nuggets forward Kenneth Faried, who doesn’t have a great post up game, but rather uses his athleticism/explosiveness to catch lobs and finish off with quick dunks. Unfortunately Faried has never developed a shot from that area, and defenses have caught on. Over time teams will adjust, sending one less player to the ball handler, or just taking that lane away all together, forcing Faried to shoot. In the video below, you can see Faried hover in the short corner area, with a good cut he’s able to explode to rim and dunk on Alex Len. In the second clip, he receives a pass at the short corner, and misses the wide open jumper, defenses almost concede those shots to Faried.
Poeltl will likely work out of the short corner area as his strength develops, but it’s not a bad secondary position for him to master. If it sounds like I’m harping on his lack strength a lot, it’s because I am. When he increases his strengths, his development will take a massive jump forward, the full arsenal of his offensive moves will be on display, and he will become a headache for opposing teams with his ability to crash the glass. When I was going through video of Poeltl looking at his strengths and weaknesses, the theme quickly became “he just needs to get strong” Right now we’re seeing the shell of what Poeltl posses offensively, it will be interesting to project how some of those things might look moving forward. If this is the shell, his offensive game is something to be excited about.
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