Recalibrating for draft week

So, that was some NBA weekend. The No. 1 pick is being traded within the Atlantic Division, Paul George could be on the move, and the NBA’s 365-day-a-year chaos machine continues to churn out entertainment.

From the Toronto Raptors perspective, not a lot of this resonates in a material way. George being on the market is fun to think on, but even on a one-year rental, the Raptors probably can’t make an offer competitive enough to beat the market (there are some three-way scenarios they could maybe get involved in, mind you). The Sixers-Celtics swap doesn’t necessarily make a dramatic difference, either – the Celtics keep their war-chest well-stocked and the 76ers continue to look dangerous in the not-so-distant future, but both of those things were true anyway, there’s just a shift in asset timeline. If nothing else, it’s a reminder that there will always be someone in your way, but whether that makes blowing things up more or less justifiable is a matter of personal perspective. And as for the impact on Kyle Lowry’s free agency, I actually don’t see the deal making a huge difference – while the Sixers now have a point guard, he’s 6-foot-5, Lowry’s played off the ball a ton, too, and Philly can make a more compelling case that they’ll be good soon. I don’t think Lowry going there is exceptionally likely, but I don’t think the odds have changed dramatically here.

Again, it’s been fun, but nothing has happened that’s all that tangible for your Raptors. After a few mostly quiet weeks, things figure to heat up now. The NBA Draft takes place on Thursday, with media availability with president Masai Ujiri on Tuesday to further set the table for that, and free agency and Las Vegas Summer League will follow in short order. The biggest questions facing the Raptors trickle from one big free agency decision, but for the present week, it’s all eyes on the draft board.

As usual with the Raptors, it’s a little difficult to get a handle on what they may be thinking. We know based on management precedent that the Raptors care not for consensus rankings and won’t shy away from taking their guy, whoever that may be at No. 23. They’ve tepidly talked of potentially trading into the second round for another pick, too. There’s always the chance the pick could be moved, as well (more on that later this week). Not only is the usual quiet out of the Raptors camp difficult to shine light on, but the team picking so late in the first round means that rumors are mostly scarce right now, and that a whole lot hinges on how a very wide-open draft plays out before their pick. The spread on some prospects, particularly after the top six or top 11 or 12 (depending on who you ask, this draft falls off after a certain point and remains good but with varying opinions on who belongs in the next class) makes it especially hard to peg down who could be available.

What we do know is that the Raptors brought in 51 players for pre-draft workouts. It’s just one small part of the entire draft process, but it’s the one we get the most information on. As always, the Raptors only have a certain amount of control over who they could bring in and when – lottery picks aren’t going to work out for a team with the No. 23 pick, travel and logistics factor in, a few players pulled out with injury, and so on. Unlike last year, the Raptors have not held an off-site workout, though they have attended some agency-run pro/camp days. (There are occasionally rumblings of private workouts, as there were last year, but that doesn’t seem to be the case for Toronto this time around). And again, those single-day workouts are just a sliver, an intimate but not necessarily predictive part of a vast information-gathering process. It’s nothing worth fretting about or trying to get clear answers from.

Still, it’s all we know. Here’s a look at the 51 players the Raptors brought in to BioSteel Centre:

Player	Date	Note	Average	High	Low
Ike Anigbogu	17-May	Interview only	20.4	15	28
T.J. Leaf	17-May		29.1	20	40
Semi Ojeleye	17-May		32.3	20	71
Tyler Lydon	17-May		33.7	17	49
Caleb Swanigan	17-May		34.1	27	45
Johnathan Motley	18-May		47.7	35	99
Dillon Brooks	18-May		49.6	38	77
Devin Robinson	22-May		50.0	36	94
Wesley Iwundu	22-May		50.1	23	105
Jonathan Jeanne	22-May	Medical condition	50.1	15	93
Tyler Dorsey	22-May		51.6	42	73
Kyle Kuzma	22-May		53.0	43	89
Sindarius Thornwell	22-May		53.8	41	80
P.J. Dozier	7-Jun		54.8	38	105
Damyean Dotson	23-May		60.1	55	70
Kobi Simmons	23-May		61.1	45	82
Dwayne Bacon	23-May		64.6	51	105
Nigel Hayes	23-May		71.6	59	80
Kennedy Meeks	23-May		72.9	36	92
Isaiah Briscoe	23-May		84.4	67	105
Isaac Humphries	30-May		85.3	49	105
Troy Caupain	30-May		96.3	44	105
Antonius Cleveland	30-May		96.7	85	105
Austin Nichols	30-May		96.9	74	105
Chance Comanche	30-May		100.1	88	105
T.J. Williams	30-May		103.0	98	105
Justin Jackson	17-May	Withdraw	N/A	N/A	N/A
Rawle Alkins	5-Jun	Withdraw	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jonathan Williams	5-Jun	Withdraw	N/A	N/A	N/A
Markis McDuffie	6-Jun	Withdraw	N/A	N/A	N/A
MiKyle McIntosh	6-Jun	Withdraw	N/A	N/A	N/A
Dylan Ennis	5-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
Jeremy Hollowell	5-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
Rashawn Thomas	5-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
Tyler Cavanaugh	5-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
Xavier Rathan-Mayes	6-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
Sebastian Saiz	6-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
Nate Britt	6-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
Scoochie Smith	6-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
Matt Jones	7-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
Jordan Matthews	7-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
Matt Thomas	7-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
Justin Tuoyo	7-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
JJ Frazier	7-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
Quinton Hooker	7-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
Hassan Martin	13-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
Paul Watson	13-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
Kasey Hill	13-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
Luke Fischer	13-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
Seth Allen	13-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R
Naz Mitrou-Long	13-Jun		N/R	N/R	N/R

Notable here is that, compared to earlier posts like this, several of the names the Raptors worked out have climbed the rankings. Some have fallen, too, but a handful of the “unranked” names people gave the “Who He Play For” treatment to in our draft write-ups have since started appearing on top-100 lists. That doesn’t mean they’re on the radar at No. 23, of course, but it does suggest that the wide net the Raptors have cast in this process to potentially unearth some undrafted free agent gems are gathering momentum.

As a look back, here are our workout notes from each session. (As a side-note, no player came in for a second workout this year.)

May 17: Dylan Ennis, T.J. Williams, Rawle Alkins, Jeremy Hollowell, Rashawn Thomas, Tyler Lydon
May 18: T.J. Leaf, Tyler Cavanaugh
May 22: Tyler Dorsey, Kobi Simmons, Dillon Brooks, Semi Ojeleye, Markis McDuffie, Jonathan Williams
May 23: Isaiah Briscoe, Xavier Rathan-Mayes, Justin Jackson, MiKyle McIntosh, Sebastian Saiz, Jonathan Motley
May 30: Nate Britt, Scoochie Smith, Damyean Dotson, Antonius Cleveland, Caleb Swanigan, Austin Nichols
June 5: Matt Jones, Jordan Matthews, Matt Thomas, P.J. Dozier, Justin Tuoyo, Kennedy Meeks
June 6: Wesley Iwundu, Devin Robinson, J.J. Frazier, Quinton Hooker, Hassan Martin, Paul Watson
June 7: Kasey Hill, Troy Caupain, Nigel Hayes, Kyle Kuzma, Ike Anigbogu, Jonathan Jeanne, Luke Fischer
June 13: Sindarius Thornwell, Seth Allen, Naz Mitrou-Long, Dwayne Bacon, Chance Comanche, Isaac Humphries

Here’s an updated look at the rankings from Chad Ford of ESPN, DraftExpress, The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor, and Joshua Riddell, plus Kevin Pelton‘s statistical rankings. If a player was not ranked by Ford, DX, or Riddell, they received a 105 (O’Connor’s rankings only go to 60). Pelton’s rankings were weighted less in the average, and some players did not have sufficient statistical data for him to give a ranking to.

Rank	Player	Ford	Express	O’Connor	Riddell	Pelton	Average	High	Low
1	Markelle Fultz	1	1	1	1	4	1.3	1	4
2	Lonzo Ball	2	2	3	3	1	2.3	1	3
3	Jonathan Isaac	6	9	5	4	2	5.6	2	9
4	Jayson Tatum	4	4	2	7	28	6.9	2	28
5	Josh Jackson	3	3	6	2	34	6.9	2	34
6	Dennis Smith	8	7	8	9	6	7.8	6	9
7	De’Aaron Fox	5	5	4	5	38	8.4	4	38
8	Malik Monk	7	6	7	8	32	9.8	6	32
9	Zach Collins	9	17	15	6	5	11.0	5	17
10	Lauri Markkanen	10	8	13	13	13	11.2	8	13
11	Frank Ntilikina	11	10	9	10	23	11.4	9	23
12	OG Anunoby	13	14	11	16	7	12.8	7	16
13	Donovan Mitchell	15	11	10	14	25	13.9	10	25
14	John Collins	16	12	20	17	12	15.8	12	20
15	Luke Kennard	14	13	12	26	31	17.9	12	31
16	Jarrett Allen	18	18	19	11	35	18.6	11	35
17	Justin Patton	21	28	14	15	21	19.7	14	28
18	Ike Anigbogu	19	15	28	19	22	20.4	15	28
19	Anzejs Pasecniks	26	21	17	24	33	23.2	17	33
20	Terrance Ferguson	17	24	24	30		23.8	17	30
21	Jawun Evans	30	29	22	12	37	24.8	12	37
22	Isaiah Hartenstein	29	19	44	20		24.9	19	44
23	Harry Giles	12	26	31	29	42	26.4	12	42
24	D.J. Wilson	28	23	18	27	47	26.6	18	47
25	Tony Bradley	22	40	30	28	9	27.7	9	40
26	Justin Jackson	25	16	26	25	78	29.1	16	78
27	T.J. Leaf	20	36	40	22	26	29.1	20	40
28	Bam Adebayo	23	34	27	23	50	29.3	23	50
29	Derrick White	41	25	25	32	43	32.1	25	43
30	Semi Ojeleye	34	20	21	35	71	32.3	20	71
31	Josh Hart	37	51	35	21	8	32.9	8	51
32	Tyler Lydon	33	22	49	39	17	33.7	17	49
33	Caleb Swanigan	32	27	32	40	45	34.1	27	45
34	Ivan Rabb	24	30	33	49	48	35.6	24	49
35	Jordan Bell	31	35	29	37	69	37.0	29	69
36	Mathias Lessort	49	32	41	34	40	39.1	32	49
37	Monte Morris	36	61	60	18	3	39.2	3	61
38	Alec Peters	39	31	58	44	16	40.0	16	58
39	Frank Jackson	27	33	37	69	39	41.2	27	69
40	Jonah Bolden	40	44	16	52	68	41.3	16	68
41	Thomas Bryant	50	37	48	55	18	44.2	18	55
42	Cameron Oliver	48	55	38	50	41	47.0	38	55
43	Sterling Brown	45	45	34	59	58	47.1	34	59
44	Johnathan Motley	35	39	43	48	99	47.7	35	99
45	Edmond Sumner	38	54	57	36	73	49.2	36	73
46	Dillon Brooks	43	38		54	77	49.6	38	77
47	Devin Robinson	46	49	36	47	94	50.0	36	94
48	Wesley Iwundu	54	53	23	43	105	50.1	23	105
49	Jonathan Jeanne	93	42		33	15	50.1	15	93
50	Tyler Dorsey	44	47	42	73	52	51.6	42	73
51	Frank Mason	42	41	50	62	83	52.6	41	83
52	Kyle Kuzma	47	43	46	58	89	53.0	43	89
53	Sindarius Thornwell	59	57	45	41	80	53.8	41	80
54	P.J. Dozier	53	52	51	38	105	54.8	38	105
55	Alpha Kaba	61	66		53	30	55.7	30	66
56	Davon Reed	57	62	39	76	53	57.9	39	76
57	L.J. Peak	84	46	47	31	105	57.9	31	105
58	Jaron Blossomgame	62	50	59	42	100	58.4	42	100
59	Aleksandar Vezenkov	87	65		51	11	59.6	11	87
60	Damyean Dotson	55	59	56	70	61	60.1	55	70
61	Kobi Simmons	52	76		45	82	61.1	45	82
62	Chris Boucher	56	86		65	24	62.6	24	86
63	V.J. Beachem	66	67	55	64	64	63.1	55	67
64	Dwayne Bacon	51	74	52	61	105	64.6	51	105
65	Andrew White	71	68	53	57	85	64.8	53	85
66	Luke Kornet	77	69		71	27	65.9	27	77
67	Vlatko Cancar	105	56		46	56	67.1	46	105
68	Nigel Hayes	64	80		77	59	71.6	59	80
69	Derrick Walton Jr.	68	73		105	14	72.3	14	105
70	Kennedy Meeks	63	92		82	36	72.9	36	92
71	Kadeem Allen	73	64		67	105	73.3	64	105
72	Nigel Williams-Goss	74	58		81	88	73.4	58	88
73	Melo Trimble	70	84		78	54	74.0	54	84
74	Eric Mika	60	82		105	57	78.7	57	105
75	Isaiah Hicks	58	60		105	105	78.7	58	105
76	Jamel Artis	75	91		60	105	79.6	60	105
77	James Blackmon Jr.	82	83		105	29	81.3	29	105
78	Jake Wiley	105	63		74	87	81.6	63	105
79	Alberto Abalde	105	48		105	55	81.6	48	105
80	Malcolm Hill	76	105		80	51	81.9	51	105
81	Wesley Alves Da Silva	86	94		68		82.7	68	94
82	Malcolm Hill	105	79		83	51	83.6	51	105
83	Rolands Smits	105	77		66	92	84.0	66	105
84	Isaiah Briscoe	67	71		105	105	84.4	67	105
85	London Perrantes	105	105		56	63	85.0	56	105
86	Jeremy Morgan	83	105		105	10	85.1	10	105
87	Isaac Humphries	79	90		105	49	85.3	49	105
88	Amile Jefferson	72	105		72	105	86.1	72	105
89	Ognjen Jaramaz	105	75		79	95	87.6	75	105
90	Paris Bass	65	105		105	70	88.6	65	105
91	Marko Guduric	105	105		63	75	88.7	63	105
92	Ben Moore	99	105	54	105	79	89.4	54	105
93	Peter Jok	69	87		105	105	89.6	69	105
94	Marcus Keene	78	105		105	60	90.9	60	105
95	Kris Jenkins	81	105		105	62	92.0	62	105
96	Antonio Blakeney	80	96		105	86	92.6	80	105
97	Justin Robinson	105	105		105	19	92.7	19	105
98	Derek Willis	105	105		105	20	92.9	20	105
99	Amida Brimah	105	70		105	95	93.6	70	105
100	George de Paula	105	72		105		94.0	72	105
101	Michael Young	105	81		105	83	95.0	81	105
102	Youssoupha Fall	90	105		105	66	95.1	66	105
103	Ilimane Diop	105	105		75	97	95.3	75	105
104	Moses Kingsley	89	105		105	72	95.7	72	105
105	Kenan Sipahi	88	105		105	76	96.0	76	105
106	Troy Caupain	105	105		105	44	96.3	44	105
107	Antonio Campbell	105	105		105	46	96.6	46	105
108	Antonius Cleveland	96	85		105	105	96.7	85	105
109	Austin Nichols	92	105		105	74	96.9	74	105
110	Deonte Burton	105	78		105	105	97.3	78	105
111	Zak Irvin	85	105		105	96	98.0	85	105
112	JaJuan Johnson	105	93		105	85	98.7	85	105
113	Tidjan Keita	105	89		105		99.7	89	105
114	Chance Comanche	105	88		105	105	100.1	88	105
115	Simon Birgander	92	105		105		100.7	92	105
116	Jabari Bird	91	105		105	105	101.0	91	105
117	Przemek Karnowski	100	97		105	105	101.3	97	105
118	Sidy Dijtte	105	95		105	105	102.1	95	105
119	Nedim Buza	98	105		105		102.7	98	105
120	James Birsen	97	105		105	105	102.7	97	105
121	Ismael Bako	105	99		105		103.0	99	105
122	T.J. Williams	105	98		105	105	103.0	98	105
123	Trevor Thompson	105	100		105	105	103.6	100	105

Those are just rankings, though, and don’t necessarily tell us who the Raptors could be choosing between at No. 23. If you’re looking at mock drafts to get a handle on things, a few notes to keep in mind: the Raptors rarely leak, and few ever nail their actual picks; this draft is particularly wide open and subject to fluctuation outside of the lottery; and analyses have shown that while Chad Ford nails the most picks correctly, DraftExpress boasts the most accurate mocks overall, and those two are a fair margin above the rest of the field.

And so in addition to the rankings, here are a look at the players Ford and DX both have mocked as going outside of the lottery and who at least one mock has going sometime in the first round, which should give us a rough range of who the Raptors could be looking at when on the clock (though again, they have shown they’ll make a perceived reach based on their own board over what the market/league says, as they should).

Player	Ford	DX
Harry Giles	15	17
Ike Anigbogu	17	22
T.J. Leaf	18	20
Jarrett Allen	19	15
Bam Adebayo	20	18
Justin Jackson	21	16
Justin Patton	22	19
Anzejs Pasecniks	23	23
Tony Bradley	24	2nd
Frank Jackson	25	2nd
Isaiah Hartenstein	26	30
Terrance Ferguson	27	27
D.J. Wilson	28	24
Jordan Bell	29	2nd
Tyler Lydon	30	28
Semi Ojeleye	2nd	25
Derrick White	2nd	26
Ivan Rabb	2nd	29

We’ll have more coverage over the course of the week, including coverage of Ujiri’s availability, a column or two on strategies for the pick in general, and a mailbag (you have to tweet me the Qs though, not leave them in the comments, as it’s much easier for formatting that way). In the meantime, I’m curious to hear where people land on the names that could be available at No. 23, who has moved up or down your theoretical boards, if the other moves around the NBA change your opinion on strategy, and so on.