The Sacramento Kings have been an interesting opponent for the Raptors to say the least. As a franchise overall, the Kings have been terrible for basically the better part of the last decade. And yet, every season, a disappointing loss to the Kings seems to manifest itself for Toronto. The Raptors have obviously been the kind of team that plays up and down to their competition in recent years, but new highs always seemed to be reached when facing the Kings. Sacramento has won the past 4 meetings against the Raptors in a streak that stretches back to November 15, 2015 (a game in which Boogie Cousins erupted for 36 and 10). The streak also had 2 ugly Sunday evening home losses, and of course, the game in Sacramento last season that ended in controversial fashion when Terrence Ross’ potential game-tying 3-pointer was voided, granting the Kings yet another win.
The feeling coming into this one though…just feels different. First of all, the Kings don’t have a beast big man down low anymore (though the way JV seems to play against DeMarcus Cousins these days, that might not have been the worst thing in the world). Not to mention the Raptors are playing a somewhat significantly different style of play compared to the last couple of years. It’s a style that features a tad less of its all-stars in isolation, and rather a more passing-oriented offense that uses it’s bench and young players to give it a boost. But things seemed good going into each of the last 4 games the Raptors lost to the Kings…and yet, things didn’t end up working out.
If the Kings are going to have any shot against the Raptors this time though, their play on both ends of the court is going to have to be significantly better than it’s been so far this season. Sacramento ranks second last in offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and point-differential in the entire league. That’s just awful. Granted they’ve played a mostly road-heavy schedule so far, but the Kings’ 4-6 record at home doesn’t exactly make you scared as a visiting opponent. The Raptors will certainly have the confidence to the win this game, but will they have the 48-minute effort requisite for a win? That’s the real question for me.
I will say though – those “effort lulls” this team has shown against some weaker opponents these past few seasons, is something they’ve really improved on avoiding this year. 4 of the wins in this 5-game Raptor winning streak have been against teams with a losing record. And the Raps will have to get used to this kind of approach, with 9 more games coming in December against teams with losing records. It’s about approaching each game the same way regardless of the opponent.
Key storylines
One of the main bright spots we’ve seen in the past 5 games is the stark increase in passing, spearheaded by the playmaking of Kyle and DeMar. The Raptors as a team in the past 5 games have averaged 27 assists a game, meaning 60% of their field goals have been assisted. That’s a startling statistic, especially considering they’ve shot it at over 50% from the field during this stretch with 13 3’s a game. That’s an amazing turnaround for Dwane Casey’s offense, which averaged less than 19 assists a game last year. As we’ve written about here at Raptors Republic, this season has been a new level of achievement for Casey. For all the criticism he’s gotten, he deserves a ton of credit for the early-season turnaround.
One of the Raptors primary off-season additions, C.J. Miles, has been an up-and-down feature of the Raptors bench. From hot streaks, to cold streaks, to illnesses, to being away for the birth of his child, to all kinds variability in playing time, we’ve seen all sides of the C.J. Miles experiment so far. But after an 0-4 performance (all beyond the arc), going scoreless in just 8 minutes of action against the Grizzlies, I’d be interested to see how Dwane Casey plans on using the sharp shooter. Given that the Kings give up over 12 3-pointers a game (26th in the league), I’d expect the Raptors to be aggressive behind the 3-point-line – and you’ve gotta figure C.J. Miles fits into that strategy. It’ll be important for the Raptors to get his confidence back for the long term as well, so I wouldn’t expect too many nights with under 10 minutes of playing time for him.
The Raptors will be also facing off against Vince Carter for the first time in a Kings uniform. The celebrated ex-Raptor veteran, in his 20th year in the league, recently revealed some of the reasons he decided to join the Kings this off-season, and be part of a rebuilding situation. Watching VC play never gets old for me personally, but it’s been a different season thus far, even for Vince, who you’d think has seen it all in this league. In what’s been his lowest usage season of his career thus far, Vince is averaging 3 points a game in just over 13 minutes for Sacramento. Embracing the mentorship role is something that’s clearly important to him and I can still respect that. And unlike probably any other 40-year-old in league history, VC is still in decent enough shape to throw down a windmill.
Game details
Tip time: 3:30 p.m.
Venue: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Probable starters:
- Raptors: Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, OG Anunoby, Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas
- Kings: George Hill, De’Aaron Fox, Garrett Temple, JaKarr Sampson, Zach Randolph
Keys to the game
- The bench’s impact: The bench has obviously been the most pleasant early-season surprise for the Raptors. After an early let-down against Memphis in the second quarter on Friday night, they bounced back big with a strong close to the third. The Kings surprisingly have one of the most productive benches in the league, averaging over 50 bench points a game. But a soft defense for this unit has led to a net rating of -4.9 (good for 23rd in the league). The Raptors meanwhile boast the best bench net rating in the league, by almost a full point. Guys like Frank Mason, Garrett Temple, and Skal Labissiere (each of whom average over 8 points a game, but are not especially known for defense) are part of that Kings bench, so I fully expect FVV, Norm, CJ, Pascal, and Poeltl to give it to those guys.
- Contain Z-Bo: Zach Randolph leads the Kings in scoring…seriously. As funny as that is in itself, it kind of makes the game plan easy: if the Raps can stop Z-Bo down low from getting comfortable, or from getting enough space to hit his mid-range jumpers, it should be smooth sailing from there. While De’Aaron Fox is obviously a threat to drive to the basket with his quickness, he’s still just not a shooter at this point, so I don’t think it would be too difficult for Lowry to stay disciplined there. Randolph is traditionally a back-to-the-basket player, but can occasionally knock down the 15-17 footer. I’d expect to see Serge or Pascal on him most of the night,.
- Continue what’s been working: The key to the Raptors success of late has clearly been the passing and quality shot-selection (in many instances, passing the good shot to get the great shot). If this winning streak is going to hit 7, 8, or 9 games, and the Raptors really want to make noise in the surprisingly competitive Eastern Conference, consistency in everything they do is going to have to be a mark of this team. We saw some of that in the 56-win team a couple of years ago, and we have to start seeing that again. This new offense thing, to me, isn’t a thing until it’s being done consistently. In first quarters, in crunch time, and in the playoffs.
- Rest: With a back-to-back looming against the Clippers in LA tomorrow night (albeit against a Blake Griffin-less team), Coach Casey and the Raptor reserves will have to do their best to hold serve and push Raptor leads, in order to give the starters adequate rest. If we can pull off the win with Kyle and DeMar playing under 35 minutes, and Serge under 30, I’d consider that a major step forward for tomorrow. The Clips will be coming off a big victory last night against the Wizards that featured a game-winner from none other than Lou Williams.
The line and prediction
The Raps come in at a -7 for the game. I’ll take them to win this by a comfortable 8-10 points. We saw them get off to a bad start against the Grizzlies, so I expect Toronto to come out strong. They’ll need to get ahead early and stay ahead if they want to give their starters some rest heading into the back-to-back tomorrow. But as we’ve seen the past two seasons, handling the lowly Kings isn’t always that simple.
