A little earlier, we went deep into the Toronto Raptors second-round matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers, dropped the podcast, then rounded up takes from our own writers, providing our perspective on the series. For additional color, we had a Q&A with Mike Zavagno from Fear the Sword to get the alternate perspective on the series.
It can also be instructive to get perspectives from outside of the team-specific bubble. Those without a rooting (or writing) interest in the series have the benefit of more space, a balance of knowledge across both teams, and less potential bias. Getting their opinions can help further color the picture ahead of Game 1.
So we reached out to a handful of writers from around the league for their take on Raptors-Cavaliers, asking them a few simple questions.
What is the biggest strength/opportunity for the Raptors in this series?
James Herbert: Ugh, I said depth and chemistry last time — can I re-use that? The Raptors are an actual cohesive team that knows how they are supposed to play. The Cavs are just sort of winging it.
Jared Dubin: The Cavs ain’t that good.
Tony East: I think the biggest strength the Raptors have over the Cavaliers is their bench unit(s). In the first round, the Pacers pretty much just let Jordan Clarkson shoot whenever they wanted. Those two guys have the ability to get hot at any moment, but they are most inefficient volume shooters, the worst type of player to have in the postseason. Raptors fans know what Jose Caleron is, and he is older and less useful now. Tristan Thompson showed some flashes against the Pacers, but the Raptors have the prefect bigs to match up with him. Meanwhile, on Toronto’s side, they have Fred Van Vleet who might be the best defensive guard in the series, a more efficient streaky shooter in CJ Miles, two beasts in the post with Siakam and Poeltl, and Delon Wright is a steady hand. Flexibilty and talent off the bench will give the Raptors a quality opportunity to swing games.
Nekias Duncan: Not to bite off the Warriors too much, but their #StrengthInNumbers moniker feels appropriate. Toronto’s bench mob, led by the heady play of Fred VanVleet, is the best in the business. Of course, there’s more. Between the flame throwing of CJ Miles, the two-way ability of Delon Wright, the combustibility of Norman Powell, and the yin-and-yang element of the Paskal Siakam-Jakob Poeltl frontcourt, Toronto can mix and match a ton of combos and extend leads. Cleveland’s bench has more names, but you can’t rely on them from night to night.
Ian Levy: On paper, damn near everything. The Raptors have a new and improved offense, a pair of terrific individual scorers, a deep and confident bench, a wealth of outside shooters and two individual defenders — OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam — who did a very good job on LeBron James during the regular season. On paper, they’re the better team in almost every way. The only thing is …
What is the biggest strength/opportunity for the Cavaliers in this series?
James Herbert: The Cavs present matchup problems that Toronto hasn’t proven it can solve. The Raptors don’t have a LeBron stopper and it’s not clear they can stop Cleveland when Love is playing center.
Jared Dubin: The Cavs still have LeBron.
Tony East: It is lame to answer LeBron, but he is close to the only answer at this point. It was rare to see someone other than the King make meaningful contributions in the Cavaliers first round series, yet they still found a way to win four games. LeBron just completely took over when he needed to, and he is the leg up the Cavs have on every team. If you squint a little bit, Kyle Korver could be someone that hurts Toronto. Cleveland runs him off of three or even four screens every possession. His floor spacing combined with his excellent shot making and quick release make him really hard to stop, and the Raptors may not have the perfect matchup to guard him. Korver could swing a game or two.
Nekias Duncan: LeBron James. Any time you have the best player in the series by a sizable margin, you’re going to have a puncher’s chance. The Cavs have arguably the most talented player to ever pick up a basketball — and he’s fully locked in. Toronto has credible players that, in theory, can make LeBron work. However, we have a 15-year sample size of that not being enough 97 percent of the time. His brute force, otherworldly vision, and refined skills will push Toronto to their physical and mental breaking point.
Ian Levy: … LeBron James, and whatever residual trauma he’s able to manifest in Toronto’s playoff psyches. It took multiple heroic efforts from LeBron to get the Cavaliers past the Indiana Pacers and there’s no reason to think he couldn’t conceivably do that to the Raptors as well. As much as their supporting cast has struggled in the playoffs, the most basic elements of Cleveland’s plan have to be “let LeBron be LeBron and hope Toronto shrinks from the moment.” That being said, Toronto is better than they’ve ever been and, if they play their game, they’re good enough to beat the Cavaliers even if LeBron goes supernova.
You’re the Raptors, and for the third year in a row you have to figure out how to slow LeBron James. Who do you throw at him most often, and where do you land on the “1-on-1 and stay at home on teammates” versus “load up and make teammates beat you” coin, if anywhere?
James Herbert: Siakam, I guess? But that partially depends on whether or not he can make the Cavs pay for completely ignoring him on the other end. I am generally . a “turn LeBron into a scorer” guy — when he is creating open shots for great 3-point shooters, you are cooked. That changes, however, when guys like Jeff Green and Jordan Clarkson are on the court. Make those guys beat you!
Jared Dubin: I’m throwing as many different looks at him as I can, but the primary guys would be OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, with a dose of Serge Ibaka when the Cavs go small. I try to play one-on-one and stay home on the shooters when he has a roll man out there (I’m fine letting him fire passes to Tristan Thompson or Larry Nance all night) and I try to strike a balance between the two strategies when he’s got four shooters to choose from. I don’t really want to help off Kyle Korver at all, ever, but I’d be more comfortable leaving guys like George Hill or Rodney Hood, for example.
Tony East: Just throw OG at him every possession, and tell OG to be willing to check out of the game and rest when he needs it. CJ Miles didn’t do too terrible on LeBron last year in the Pacers-Cavs series, and OG could stifle him, at least somewhat, in a 1-on-1 matchup. In the past, when LeBron had Kyrie Irving and stellar shooters around him, you pretty much had to stay home on his team mates. Now, you can load up on LeBron and not get killed nearly as much as you have in the past. The Pacers loaded the strong side of the court on nearly every LBJ pick-and-whatever, and they always tried to force the ball out of his hands. It worked to a degree, and none of King James teammates ever got into a rhythm, which made the strategy even more successful. With Kevin Love’s thumb injury, loading up on LeBron makes even more sense because his sidekick is weaker still. I think the Raptors would be smart to load up.
Nekias Duncan: he easy answer (and copout) is to do a little of both. Cleveland’s role players have not been reliable, at all, but you don’t want to run the risk of their shooters getting hot. J.R Smith, Rodney Hood, George Hill, and Jordan Clarkson (not a shooter, but let’s roll with it) shot a combined 21-of-82 from three in the first round. That absolutely won’t hold. On the other side of the coin, LeBron is, well, LeBron. He’s the NBA’s version of Thanos. Daring him to beat you 1-on-5 sounds good, but he’s good enough to do it. If I had to choose one method, I’d still lean towards making LeBron do everything. After watching him give it his all to barely scrape by the Pacers, you’d hope that fatigue would set in at least a little bit.
Ian Levy: I think early in the series you let Anunoby and Siakam go 1-on-1 as much as possible and live with the results. It shouldn’t really matter if LeBron scores 40 as long as Jordan Clarkson, J.R. Smith and company keep throwing up donuts. The scarier scenario for Toronto is if some of Cleveland’s role players really find a rhythm. Later in the series, if they’ve assert control, it might be worth playing with that balance a little bit more.
Call it.
James Herbert: I truly have no idea, but here’s my stupid prediction: Raptors in six, and then Toronto has to take advantage of its opportunity to get to the Finals before LeBron signs with the Sixers and wins the East for another seven straight seasons.
Jared Dubin: The Cavs in however many games LeBron decides he’ll allow the series to go because that’s just how it goes with these two teams.
Tony East: Toronto, in 7 games. For the first time in a Raptors-Cavs series, the Raptors are more talented. Combine that with better coaching and a better + more modern scheme, home-court advantage, and a chip on their shoulders, and the Raptors have pretty much every advantage you can think of. Statistically and anecdotally, this series favors Toronto. History favors LeBron. Something has got to give, and I think history gives.
Nekias Duncan: I understand that I could end up looking foolish, but I believe in the Raptors this year. A healthy and confident Kyle Lowry should give Cleveland fits. DeMar DeRozan should be fine if he plays within himself. The bench matchup is wildly in Toronto’s favor. They have the better team, a better coach, and home court advantage. Raptors in 7, for everyone’s sake.
Ian Levy: Toronto in 6.
OTHER OUTSIDE OPINIONS
FiveThirtyEight give the Raptors a 71-percent chance to win this series and 14-percent chance to win the championship. ESPN’s BPI odds have the Raptors at 88 percent to beat the Cavaliers, showing Raptors in 5 as the most likely outcomes. Basketball Reference has them at 90.5 percent to beat Cleveland. Jacob Goldstein‘s model is pessimistic way down at 70 percent.
The Raptors opened as -240 favorites in the series, and that line has come down slightly to -200. That’s a pretty significant market signal as to the strength of the Raptors – more than just the likeliest outcome goes into these things, but oddsmakers know they’re inviting action on the Cavs as an underdog, and their willingness to accept that position points to confidence in Toronto. The series result odds are as follows, from most to least likely:
- Raps in 5, Raps in 7 – 3-to-1
- Raps in 6 – 5-to-1
- Cavs in 6 – 9-to-2
- Cavs in 7 – 15-to-2
- Raps in 4 – 17-to-2
- Cavs in 5 – 12-to-1
- Cavs in 4 – 20-to-1
The Raptors have the fourth-best title odds at 9-to-1, trailing only Philly in the East. They also have the best odds to come out of the East at 3-to-2, a weird quirk where, I guess, the market sees Philly as a bigger threat to win if they make the finals.
The over-under on LeBron James’ stat line, by the way, is 32.5, 10, and 9. That the Raptors are favorites despite those numbers being the bar for James is wild.
My Picks
If anyone care.
