14-4 🙂
10 things I saw from Raptors-Magic (Nov. 22) – The Defeated
Concern: This game was only close because the Raptors couldn’t hit wide-open threes. Toronto shot 9-of-34 from deep against the Magic, and have made just 48-of-163 dating back to the start of last week, which accounts for most of their struggles since their 12–1 start.
The Play: Danny Green ends an awful night with a huge shot for Raptors – The Athletic [subscription]
Give Nick Nurse credit: The play he drew up to help Green hit the winner in the Raptors’ 93-91 win on Tuesday was a lot better than the one DeRozan used almost six years earlier. Instead of catching the ball at the top of the key, Green caught it just outside of the paint with 2.5 seconds remaining. And if Orlando truly collapsed on Green, the inbound passer, Kyle Lowry, had another option: Kawhi Leonard was in the midst of popping out for an open three-pointer at the top of the key after Serge Ibaka set the screen on Wes Iwundu that freed Green.
The Raptors walked through the play on Tuesday morning at their shootaround at a volleyball academy in suburban Orlando.
“That’s the first option on (the play),” Nurse said of Green getting the ball. “We stretch (the defence) out there a little bit and Danny gets a running start and (he) heads off a double screen down and then there’s some more stuff to come off of that. But that’s the first option, that’s the first time we’ve used it. I think Kyle made a great lead (pass) and obviously (it was) a great shot.”
It is interesting that Lowry was the passer. On the one hand, he is the best passer on the team, and the bounce pass he threw was excellent. On the other hand, he is barely 6-feet, and if the Magic used someone lankier than Fournier to disturb the inbound pass, Lowry might have had a hard time seeing. It makes you wonder if there were a version of the play where Lowry, one of the team’s best shooters, would have gotten the ball back immediately.
“Possibly,” Nurse said, refusing to confirm that there was an option of Lowry getting the ball back. “That would be (a) pretty good (reason) to have him take it out, wouldn’t it?”
“I’ve been saying it since we put the play in, that option, it was going to be open,” Lowry said. “It was a good play and a good call. Kawhi was going to be open, too.”
“Me and K-Low discussed it (Tuesday morning), of what might be open for that look,” Green said. “Obviously (in general) I’m not the first option, but it worked out that way. Serge set a good screen. I came off pretty open, and (Lowry) threw it, he took a chance.”
Then came the shot. A lot happened before that, though. What’s past is prologue and all that.
Toronto Raptors 93 Orlando Magic 91: Danny Green sinks Magic at buzzer – Orlando Pinstriped Post
Desperately searching for a spark their starters couldn’t give them, the Magic were let down by their bench once again. The Magic’s second unit, which has been inconsistent to say the least this season, once again struggled on both ends, failing to find any better flow, and not defending at a high level. Jonathan Isaac, who showed off some flashes of what he can be offensively on Sunday night, showed more confidence in his shot, taking a pair of off-dribble mid-range jumpers, but was unable to get much else going.
Toronto continued their strong play, pushing their lead to as many as 18, while knocking down six of their 19 three-point attempts in the half. The Magic got Leonard in foul trouble, with the All-Defensive First Team player notching three personal fouls for just the 110th time in 420 career games. The Magic were able to have a little more success with Leonard on the bench, cutting the lead down to 10, 47-37 at the half.
Out of halftime, the Magic came roaring to life behind hot shooting from Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier. The duo helped propel the Magic to an 19-8 run to help the Magic grab their first lead of the game at 61-59, knocking down four three-pointers, while combining for 19 in the quarter. The hot shooting allowed the Magic to score more points (38) than they did in the entire first half.
Defensively the Magic struggled with rotations, leaving shooters open too often, but weren’t burned by it. Toronto shot over 52 percent in the quarter, but went just 1-of-10 from beyond the arc, compared to the Magic’s 5-of-7. Thanks to their surge, and sudden crisp play on the offensive end, the Magic carried a two point lead, 75-73, into the fourth.
With the lead, the Magic turned to the Mo Bamab-Isaac-Gordon trio for the first time this season, and it backfired on the Magic in a big way. With Toronto having it’s two best players, Kyle Lowry and Leonard, on the bench, the Magic desperately needed to get the ball inside to Gordon or Isaac to some easy looks. Instead, they settled for poor jump shots left and right, allowing Toronto to once again take the lead before putting their two All-Stars in.
Raptors’ buzzer-beater snaps Magic win streak – Orlando Sentinel
“It’s hard to swallow because we have a very hard schedule right now, very hard teams on the road starting [with] Denver,” Fournier said of the tough loss leading into the upcoming stretch of games. “It’s gonna be a huge test as far as how can we fight through fatigue and travels, and it’s tough because playing in Denver is going to be hard and then we got the Lakers, who we just whooped at home, and then we got Golden State, and they’re not playing good so they’re gonna be fired up, and then we got Portland, who’s ballin’ … tough road trip coming up.”
Fournier ended up with a game-high 27 points, and Nikola Vucevic had another double-double for the Magic with 14 points and 18 rebounds, and Aaron Gordon had 16 points. Toronto’s Kawhi Leonard led the Raptors with 18 points and Pascal Siakam was a thorn in the Magic side all night, scoring 15 points and snagging nine rebounds. Serge Ibaka also had nine rebounds and 14 points to haunt the team that traded him two seasons ago.
Just like they have become accustomed to doing this season, the Magic hit a hot stretch that allowed them to stay in the game. Orlando trailed by as many as 18 points and was down 10 at the half but kicked it up a notch in the second 24 minutes. Led by a Fournier surge, the Magic started the second half by hitting 10 of their first 12 field goals, including 5 of 7 3-pointers.
It was not fair that it was the Orlando Magic’s defense that ended up costing them a game that kept them in it for so long. The catalyst for the team thundering back against one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference and putting them in a position to win.
Then again, coach Steve Clifford did not seem too upset with the shot his team gave up with two seconds left.
Danny Green came around a screen from Serge Ibaka, losing Wesley Iwundu in the process as he sharply turned the corner toward the baseline. He received the pass and shot over Aaron Gordon, recovering a half step late realizing Wesley Iwundu was caught a bit sharply from the screen.
Green’s shot nestled into the basket with a half-second left and the Magic’s upset bid was for naught as the Toronto Raptors won 93-91 at the Amway Center on Tuesday.
Maybe it should not be called an upset anymore. The Magic are proving they can compete with just about any team in the league and do so in different ways.
In this one, the team’s offense was struggling. Orlando shot just 40.5 percent from the floor and 8 for 30 from beyond the arc. This was not the offensive masterpiece that has fueled this strong run of play.
And the Magic’s defense was not particularly strong in the first half either. The Raptors beat them to the offensive glass throughout the first half and it helped them build as much as an 18-point lead.
When Orlando tightened things up in the second half, the team was slowly able to climb back into the game. And then it became a battle of execution for the team.
The Magic might point to their slow offensive start to the fourth quarter. That was also where the Magic played some of their best defense in the game, but they could not expand their lead in that time.
They might also point to some missed opportunities late in the game. There were a few turnovers and rushed shots that let the Raptors take control of the game.
But it all ultimately came down to one play. Evan Fournier made a fantastic move to get past Danny Green and tie the game with two seconds left, finishing with a thunderous two-handed jam. But the Raptors had that little space and one extra play to win the game.
Game Recap: Raptors game-winner seals victory over Magic, 93-91 – Raptors HQ
If anything is apparent through the first two weeks of November, it’s that the Raptors aren’t a fully formed basketball killing machine. Not yet, at least.
A three-game losing streak humanized this roster a bit, as a great start fell back to earth and started to raise questions. Can the Raptors be consistent and have ever-fluid lineups? Can the bench settle into their new roles? Will the wings make shots at a high enough clip?
Tonight’s game against the Orlando Magic wasn’t one of those games where you settle lingering questions. It was, however, a win — which is better than the results the Raptors were getting last week. In a stretch of games that included Chicago last Saturday and Atlanta and New York upcoming, you’d hope for more “wins with answers”. But heck, we take what we can get.
Anyway, Toronto beat Orlando 93-91 on the road thanks to a last-second shot by Danny Green, who otherwise struggled mightily. It was pretty cool.
Raptors Takeaways: Green adds to resume with signature moment – Sportsnet.ca
The Raptors avoided overtime courtesy of a Danny Green buzzer-beater. After Green allowed Orlando’s Evan Fournier, who led all scorers with 27 points, to get by him and to the rim for an uncontested dunk that tied the game on the previous possession, the Raptors came out of the ensuing timeout and called Green’s number. With 2.5 seconds on the clock, he curled around a screen and collected a pin-point bounce pass from an inbounding Kyle Lowry and lifted for a 15-foot pull-up jumper with 0.5 seconds remaining to give the Raptors the victory.
Along with the double-block with Kawhi Leonard against Boston earlier this season, add Green’s game-winner to his list of signature moments early this season.
Despite arriving to Toronto in the relative shadows of the Leonard deal, Green has certainly come to the foreground in his early months as a Raptor. A 10-year veteran with an NBA title under his belt, the 31-year old guard assumed a natural leadership role out of training camp and remains a prominent voice and tone-setter both on and off the court.
A staple of the starting lineup, he’s a defensive game-changer and on offence has been the team’s biggest shooting threat. On a deep team like the Raptors, one of his greatest attributes is that he doesn’t require the ball to be effective, a trait he honed during his years in San Antonio. Green is averaging double-digits in scoring and leads the Raptors in three-pointers made despite ranking just eighth on the team in shot attempts per game with 7.5.
You don’t need advanced metrics to know that Green has made a major impact. But they’re there if you want them: Green’s offensive rating of 119.2 ranks him second among all NBA players who average 20 or more minutes per game, trailing only Steph Curry (119.6). When you factor in defence, his personal net rating of 16.9 is the best in the league.
He finished Tuesday’s game with 13 points along with three rebounds, one steal, and one block.
For all the many ways he’s contributed to the Raptors’ NBA-best 14-4 start, Green didn’t need a game-winner on his resume to win over the Raptors or their fan base. But it doesn’t hurt.
Green’s jumper gives Raptors thrilling win against Magic | Toronto Sun
“I don’t even know if Danny knows if it was his best game or not,” Nurse said.
“I think he’s going to play the situation that’s in front of him. He’s probably got a really short memory, he’s not looking forward either. He was in that play, he knows he was the first option, came off it and called for the ball like he wanted it and Kyle gave it to him.” Lowry said Green was smart not to allow a potential game-winning Fournier three-pointer.
“Danny kind of pressed up, made sure we didn’t lose the game. That was good defence by him, good decision by him and we got to get the last shot and he made it,” Lowry said.
“It was nice to make a basket after being scored on,” Green admitted.
“I didn’t want to give him any threes. I was a bad student today. I didn’t pay attention in the huddle that we had a foul to give. Sorry coach, if you’re watching this. I’ll be better. I’ll read the board and follow instructions.”
Toronto had held red-hot Orlando, a team that had been scoring at will, to just 37 points on 33% shooting at the half. However, the Magic broke out for 38 points in the third quarter, relentlessly shredding Toronto’s defence, setting up a seesaw fourth and the exciting grand finales.
“Well, we had three really good quarters of defence. I think it (was) 17, 20 and 16 and we had an absolute disaster in the third,” summarized Nurse accurately.
Toronto improved to an NBA-best 14-4, though its streak of 20 straight games scoring at least 100 points came to an end and another tough outside shooting night (9-for-34 on three-pointers for 26.5%, a season-long issue) might be of some concern if it keeps happening and the defence sags as a result.
“We played down, we didn’t play up to our own team level,” Lowry said.
“We let our defence go into the offensive end and let our offence go into the defensive end, which we can’t have happen. We just have to play consistently the whole game no matter what’s going on.” Leonard had 18 points, Pascal Siakam 15, while Serge Ibaka added 14 points, nine rebounds and four assists, his Raptors career high for helpers.
Variance
This is the big one, of course. Even league-wide, it might be early, as the NBA three-point percentage is down from 36.2 per cent to 35.2 per cent so far. It’s possible that’s a real change given some year-to-year variance in the stat — volume has been the driving factor in the three-point explosion, not effectiveness — and the uptick in league-wide scoring is purely a symptom of pace and shot spectrum rather than outside shooting talent.In any case, it’s definitely early at the team and player level. We know that individual three-point shooting stabilizes around 750 attempts, which is an incredibly high bar that makes it tough to evaluate small samples and makes slumps and streaks fairly likely to be noise rather than a signal of a change in true talent level. Lowry leads the Raptors with 106 three-point attempts so far, and his performance on those shots would only slightly change our expectation of his true shooting talent, given the tiny relative sample. His priors will be much more informative.
At the team level, recent research from Kostya Medvedovsky suggests we need to regress team performance to date against 68.4 games at league average. For the Raptors, that would mean their expected three-point percentage from here would be 35 per cent, if we’re regressing to the league average. If we chose to regress to our expected outcome for them ahead of the season instead, our expected three-point percentage from here would be 36.5 per cent.
The best approach is probably to regress these 17 games against a new expected three-point rate that includes the 17-game sample we have available. To do that, I created a new baseline for each Raptor using their three-point shooting from this year and the last two seasons, plus any preseason and G League threes (weighted slightly less) to expand our sample for players without much track record.
Doing that, the team’s expected three-point percentage given our new individual baselines and new volume distribution is 36.7 per cent. If we regress their performance so far against that as our team baseline, our expected three-point percentage from here would be 36.2 per cent.
In other words, 17 games of poor shooting hasn’t changed our expectation on the Raptors as a shooting team overall. The first month of the season has only shifted the Raptors’ expected three-point percentage from somewhere around 37.1 per cent to something in the 36-36.5-per cent range.
Raptors encouraging ‘poor’ shooters to take 3’s rather than mid-range – Hoops Hype
Utah Jazz announcer David Locke presented his theory during a recent podcast (via Locked On NBA):
“I think they’re onto something in the moneyball realm that’s different than the rest of the NBA. My quick thesis on this is that they are only letting their good shooters take mid-range shots and their bad shooters take threes, which is a complete flip from how it used to be.”
Locke said that when he asked Nurse about this, the Raptors coach seemed to react as if the speculation was fairly accurate. A long distance shot taken by a decent shooter has nearly the same value as a mid-range shot from a skilled shooter when following this philosophy.
That’s because it is worth more for someone shoot 34.0 percent from three-point range than 50.0 percent from mid-range. That means someone can be worse than the current league average on three’s (35.2 percent) and it is still more valuable than the NBA’s most accurate team (48.1 percent) on mid-range attempts.
We looked through the data and Locke’s speculation on Toronto is also what the latest numbers reflect. Only Kawhi Leonard is taking significantly more mid-range shots than three-pointers among high-volume contributors on Toronto. Good shooters like Leonard likely have a green light to take good looks from anywhere on the court.
As such, the Raptors are shooting just 34.0 percent from three-point range through 17 games. This ranks in the Bottom 10 among all teams so far this season. Some might view this as a cause for concern. But they have been the most accurate (48.1 percent) on mid-range attempts because they have been more careful about who takes these attempts.
Zach Lowe 10 things I like and don’t like, including Jayson Tatum – ESPN
1. Let’s give Kyle Lowry a signature move
It can be hard to pinpoint what makes Lowry great beyond shooting and defense, which admittedly comprise a lot of it. So much of Lowry’s brilliance lives in his bobs and weaves through the nooks and crannies of the game — in those moments, invisible to some, between when he gives up the ball and when he gets it back. It’s hard to conjure a signature move from those two-second bursts of bouncy hyperactivity.
That is a Kyle Lowry shot. He is so good at zooming into the lane, stopping on a dime, spinning, and reclining waaaaaaay back so no defender can bother that gorgeous, high-arcing fadeaway.
He has been fooling suckers with this bit for years. Lean toward that shooter coming off a screen — doesn’t matter if it’s Kawhi Leonard, DeMar DeRozan, CJ Miles, Terrence Ross, Norman Powell, Lou Williams, or Greivis Vasquez — and Lowry will fake the pass there, and zip into the lane untouched.
Lowry might be in the midst of his best season. He leads the league in assists. He is spoon-feeding Serge Ibaka — thriving as a full-time center — with one-touch, thread-the-needle pocket passes. Lowry has dished dimes on 28 percent of his ball screens, the third-highest mark among all rotation players, beyond only Milos Teodosic and Ryan Arcidiacono — two guys who would be happy literally never shooting — per Second Spectrum data.
Lowry is always on the lookout for Pascal Siakam in flight, and Pascal Siakam is always in flight. He’s shooting 61 percent on 2-pointers, by far a career high.
Toronto is deep, nasty, and smart — a delight to watch.
NBA standings: The Eastern Conference is officially back – SBNation.com
The Raptors have their own tortured postseason history to contend with, but there’s a whole new energy around this team
The enigmatic Leonard has been absorbed into the lineup with nary a hiccup, and he has reclaimed his position as the best two-way wing in the league. He and fellow Spurs import Danny Green have solidified the defense and ramped up the shooting considerably.Like the Bucks, the Raps are strong on both sides of the ball, ranking third in offensive rating and sixth on the defensive side. New coach Nick Nurse made the sensible, and overdue, decision to play Serge Ibaka exclusively at center, a move made possible by the emergence of Pascal Siakam as the full-time power forward. The Raps are long, lean, and mean.
Then there’s Kyle Lowry, who is older, smarter, and just as ornery. He’s remade himself as an assist maven with this group, averaging a career-high 10.4 dimes per game. The difference this year is that Lowry shouldn’t have to work quite so hard during the regular season, which in theory should keep him fresher for the rigors of the postseason.
Every year we say that things are different in Toronto and every year they remind us why they are so tormented. With Leonard in place and Siakam’s emergence, this year really should be different. The early returns have been encouraging.
Despite a bit of a lull at the moment, playmaker Lowry has found another level this season. He’s averaging more assists (10.4) than anyone in the league this season while making the fewest number of passes (54.5) he’s ever made as Toronto’s starting point guard. He’s averaging just about two more drives per game than a season ago, but that’s still down from any of his other seasons as a Raptor. And for context, he’s touching the ball less than Miami’s Josh Richardson and Dallas’ Dennis Smith Jr.
So what gives? How is Lowry creating this much for teammates when his own role in the offence seems even smaller?
“He’s really good, he’s really good,” Raptors head coach Nick Nurse said after Lowry recorded his fourth-straight double-digit assist night on Oct. 26 against the Dallas Mavericks. “I just think that, each year that goes by, he starts being able to pick out things and see it more clearly. As the game goes, I really think he sees the reads maybe one time and the next time he remembers it down the floor and he sees the counter to that read is there. I think he’s really good at finding the right person, too, to kick it out to a lot.”
If this is a case of Lowry’s continued understanding of the game and his ability to read defences reaching a league-best level in terms of ball distribution, history shows that he will have done so at a later stage in his career than anyone else in NBA history.
Since the NBA/ABA merger in 1975-76, there have been 16 different players to lead the league in assists. At 26 years old, Don Buse of the Indiana Pacers was first to do it in that sample, with Russell Westbrook the latest new entry. Westbrook, along with Mark Jackson and Rod Strickland, are the only players to have led the league in assists for the first time in their 10th season or later. Looking back since the ‘96-97 season, 15 of the 22 leaders after the first month or so went on to finish atop the leaderboard. No one outside the top three after the first month in that sample came back to win it.
Podcast: Locked on Raptors #420 – Magic Preview & Stealing Beal w/ Jay Rosales – Raptors HQ
In Episode 420 of Locked on Raptors, Sean Woodley is joined by Jay Rosales (Raptors HQ, That’s a Rap) to chat about the Raptors’ match-up with Orlando, the trade value of old pal Terrence Ross, and what it might take for the Raptors to get in on the Bradley Beal sweepstakes (spoiler: they’re probably not getting in).
Toronto Raptors: Examining the potential price of Bradley Beal – Raptors Rapture
The starting point
The starting point for any deal is going to be OG Anunoby or Pascal Siakam. Team president Masai Ujiri will do everything in his powers to keep them out of the negotiations, but from a Wizards perspective, no Pascal or OG is a non-starter.You might point out that Masai was able to land Kawhi Leonard without parting with either young prospect. DeMar DeRozan was also a part of that deal. Unless the Raptors are throwing in Kyle Lowry (they aren’t), the matching salary won’t include a player close to DeMar’s caliber.
The Wizards will probably haggle for both players to be included. That’s not happening either, so it will come down to one or the other.
The way Pascal Siakam is playing, it might be tempting to say that he is worth far more than OG. I’m not so sure. OG is more versatile defensively, and his shooting allows him to blend into different lineups more easily. He’s also three years younger and under team control for an additional season.
OG has the higher ceiling. Pascal is the better player at the moment. For that reason, I’m guessing it’s OG that is included in the deal.
NBA G League Raptors 905 Prospect Report: (Don’t) Forget about Malachi – Raptors HQ
Good
Malachi had one of those “in the zone” games against the Erie BayHawks where he dropped 34 points, including eight 3-pointers, in just three quarters. Throughout this article I kept pointing out how bad the BayHawks defence was, but it’s still up to Malachi to find his spots and hit his shots.One of my earlier issues with Bruno Caboclo and Malcolm Miller (at the beginning of the season) was that they were just standing around the perimeter and waiting for the pass. Against the BayHawks, Malachi did an excellent job reading what the defense was doing and drifting to those open spots while also providing a good passing angle to the teammate that would initiate the drive-and-kick.
One under-the-radar development that Malachi has shown this year is that he’s getting better at finishing his drives to the basket. He’s not the fastest, nor an above-the-rim finisher, nor does he have a quick first step, so absorbing the contact and finishing is something of a welcome development for him.
Malachi looks really healthy and in-shape right now, and because of his forgettable season last year, he’s still the guy that dropped over 20 points per game during his rookie season in the G-League. Malachi is closer to that person now (if not better) than the Malachi that we saw last season.
Bad
I’m not taking (or dishing) any slander against Malachi based on how he played in the G-League last week, and deservedly so — as he played well above expectations offensively, and the BayHawks didn’t show up so his defence looked decent at the very least.Misc
With a handful of players down against the Chicago Bulls, Malachi played a season-high in minutes. While his early rotation minutes were rough — turning the ball over and bad on-ball defence — Malachi showed flashes of what he can do: He looked confident going hard in transition for an and-1 and looked “at home” hitting those corner threes after a kick out.
Vince Carter could hit major NBA milestone against Raptors | The Star [subscription]
Now with the Atlanta Hawks — his eighth team in a career that’s in its 22nd season now — Carter needs just 13 points to get to 25,000, and it’s not inconceivable that he will reach that level against the team that gave him his start.
Carter, averaging seven points a game this season, would need an above-average showing Wednesday night in Atlanta, when the Hawks host the Raptors. Given his sense of the moment, though, it would be folly to bet against him.
And while it would be fitting if he got to 25,000 on some emphatic dunk — he’s still throwing down 360-degree slams at 41 years old — the points are more likely to come on some three-point shot. For as much as he made his name as a dunker during the height of Vinsanity, the six-foot-six swingman said earlier this month that he takes as much pride in his shooting ability as he does in his dunks.
“For all those people who said ‘We didn’t know,’ it’s real easy to go to this thing called YouTube, pull it up and just watch any game at the time,” Carter told the Charlotte Observer this month. “You can see that I did more than (dunk) and I had to do more than that because back in the time, yes, I was able to dunk the ball, but it wasn’t that easy.
Did I miss something? Send me any Raptors-related article/video to rapsfan@raptorsrepublic.com.
