The melting snow gives way to a spring that looms large. A summertime pivot away from the predictable has paid dividends and injected a sense of confidence that was absent before. A measured regular season where for the first time wins and seeding were sacrificed for health was a welcome move which incorporated lessons learned from horror shows of years past. Heading into another post-season a perceived higher playoff ceiling is justifiable, mostly because of the presence of a legitimate top-tier player, and a blooded supporting cast where the operating constraint isn’t one man’s ability to get fouled. All this bodes well, but there are minefields yet to be traversed.
When rotations tighten it can either mean your starters get extended or your core second unit does. The latter is desirable as it’s more sustainable and allows fresher starter legs to finish games off. This is one of the Raptors’ main challenges. Even with Fred VanVleet running the point there is an offensive issue with the bench, which is where the void left by Jonas Valanciunas is felt the most. The bench offense being run with Serge Ibaka is of lesser variety than with Valanciunas, who had little trouble punching noses to sustain offensive production while key starters rested. Valanciunas was arguably the only bench player who could generate their own offense without the aid of a set. His departure has increased the pressure on Norman Powell, OG Anunoby, Fred VanVleet with the three being inconsistent, absent, and steady, respectively.
This in turn has put pressure on Nick Nurse to generate bench offense through sets instead of relying on individuals attracting double-teams, and the results are mixed. Calling on Jeremy Lin’ to shore up the bench offense was an experiment rooted in hope, and one that has so far failed miserably. The exasperation of the front office is evident in the signing of Jodie Meeks. That’s how desperate the Raptors are for productive guard minutes off the bench. Other than VanVleet, Norman Powell is the closest thing to a consistent performer and he’s far from reliable. At this point in the campaign, the Raptors are more hoping that the bench issues resolve themselves rather than planning a fix.
Kawhi Leonard’s precarious quad may be one hard cut away from ending our hopes and lunging us into the depths of despair. Even if that does happen, a tremendous amount of credit needs to be given to the organization for managing the situation, both for short and long terms. The quad is a risk but the wildcard is Kyle Lowry. One can also argue that his performance ceiling is more aligned to the Raptors’ playoff aspirations than Leonard’s play. The importance of Lowry cannot be overstated because he is, by a distance, the catalyst that generates the most indirect production, far more than Leonard. He is what makes Gasol tick. He is what roots the defense. He is the bannerman. Without him, we’re done.
Whether this post-season will be déjà vu remains to be seen, but it’s hard to see Lowry pulling off another disappearing act. For the first time in his Raptors career there will be a clear-cut better player on the court who will attract the defense’s attention. This will give him more space to roam, especially off the ball. The lineup that has the most potential to be explosive is with VanVleet at the point and Lowry playing off the ball, because it results in a spaced out floor on account of Lowry’s three-point shot. His drive game makes him a threat on close-outs which is when the Raptors are at their best. It is VanVleet’s maturity at the point and the team’s comfort level with him handling the ball that can be the starting point of an effective offense, and a major differentiator compared to last year’s sets.
Marc Gasol’s integration remains incomplete. The Raptors are hitting the three better but I’m not sure if that’s due to Gasol’s presence, VanVleet’s return, Lowry’s resurgence or some other factor. Probably all if them. One fact to accept is that he is not the post scorer that Valanciunas was and expecting him to smash his way into the paint is unrealistic. His value can be seen in the democratization of the offense and the unpredictability it poses to defenses. His value might be greater on the defensive side where he’s order of magnitudes better than Valanciunas.
When the Raptors made this move it was with matchups against Joel Embiid, Al Horford and Brook Lopez in mind. In those situations, Gasol is invaluable. It is very tempting to get nostalgic about Valanciunas because what he brought to the table doesn’t have a like-for-like replacement in Gasol so it feels like a void has been created. In reality, the defensive uptick that Gasol brings along with this ability to be an offensive lubricant is far more valuable than the bench scoring that Valanciunas took with him. I believe all other things being equal, the playoffs will prove this to be true.
Milwaukee remains a potent threat and pound-for-pound it can be easily argued that save for
them missing playoff suffering and experience, they should be favored. However, as the dusk of the regular season gives way to the dawn of the post, one fact hasn’t changed since October: this is the Raptors best shot at the NBA Finals and anything less is a failure. The Finals may have been a goal last season as well, but deep down we knew it would be difficult to achieve, not just because of LeBron James, but because of the sputtering clutch offense. The gap between the contenders in the East this year is much finer, fueling expectations.
