This is part two of a roundtable, wherein a collection of RR writers answer the same questions and, ideally, give different perspectives. It doesn’t always happen that way. You can find the first part here.
What will Toronto’s biggest strength be this season?
The biggest strength will be the absurdly good tandem of Lowry and VanVleet. It’s no wonder the organization felt confident going into the season without a third point guard present.
In theory their best attribute should be their defensive versatility. They have the tools up and down the roster to match-up with size while also being able to rotate while against strong shooting teams. It will take some time to integrate new players (if they can actually earn Nurse’s trust), but they can lock down.
Their defense. This team is still loaded with talent at that end of the floor, and they’ll bring that intensity when they have to, as they did late against the Pelicans. They have a lot of confidence in themselves and they can use that to help propel their offense, where they’re dangerous in transition, and help make up for any struggles in the halfcourt. They might not be quite as good defensively as they were in the playoffs, but I think they’ll still be an elite defensive team and they can win a lot of games if they hold to that identity.
The championship experience. I keep saying it, having six guys return from their championship run last year is so important for the Raptors. Not only are these players super skilled and talented, but they are carrying on the championship culture from last season. When they could have gave in against the Pelicans, the Raptors showed their mental fortitude to battle back and win. Expect more games like that this season.
Organizational competence. The Raptors have become one of the best organizations in the NBA from Masai Ujiri down. They have everything players need to succeed, including a movement-oriented system that most of these guys have played in for a few years now.
The Raptors will be good right away because they know how to play together and they know the coach’s expectations. Plus, they’re going to be good defensively.
Adam Robles
I think our biggest strength will be our depth. We obviously lost top-end talent with Kawhi (and Danny) leaving, but Masai has done a helluva job backfilling the team with intriguing guys like RHJ, Stanley, Terence, and Matt Thomas. Once the first two get up to speed, we should be able to comfortably run 10-11 guys out there any given night, which would be great as we’ll be monitoring the minutes of some of our older guys throughout the season.
Pascal Siakam. The 4th year Cameroonian will be thrust into the spotlight this season, and is going to have every opportunity to prove he’s worth his recent raise. We know him for his stifling defense, savvy in the fast break and a spin move heard round the world, but can he be a reliable number one scoring option on a playoff team? He’s going to have to improve his shooting, ball handling and ability to create off the dribble, but I think the answer is ultimately going to be yes. Regardless, I can’t wait to watch him try.
Clearly, the biggest strength is Fred VanVleet becoming an MVP candidate. Or, the biggest strength is that Toronto boasts a plus defender at every position in the rotation. One or the other.
What will Toronto’s biggest weakness be this season?
Depth, for sure. The 8-man rotation Nurse ran on opening night was really, really tight. If anything goes sideways for the Raptors at any point, they’re going to be really thin.
Rebounding. Woof. Gasol and Ibaka need to be difference makers here, and OG needs to continue his strong start in pursuing boards outside of his space, but overall it will be an uphill battle.
Half-court creation. Fred VanVleet has shown signs of significant steps forward, and Pascal Siakam looks ready for a bigger role, but there will still be moments where things dry up for this team, and there will be growing pains, especially with more bench heavy lineups. They have to be able to be good in transition, and they’ll need to get good shooting nights from different guys at different times to stay afloat against good defenses.
Their point guard depth. Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet have shown their ability to score and orchestrate the offense. Heaven forbid they get hurt because it will be hard to fill that void. Terence Davis and Norman Powell would have to slot into that role, which raises a lot of questions about their ability to consistently score at the level of Lowry or VanVleet.
I want to say scoring, but that seems too simple and also not necessarily true. Plenty of guys on this team can shoot the ball and make plays for one another. The biggest weakness will be star power, but that won’t matter too much until playoffs come and the Raptors start to play teams with a Jimmy Butler, Kyrie Irving, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. It will be very hard for the Raptors to win a 7-game series when they don’t have the best player on the floor (I love Siakam, but he is not going to become a top-10 player this season).
Adam Robles
It might not be just specifically the Raptors’ biggest weakness but maybe the entire city as a whole. There is this weird bit of pressure on the team to win and almost prove that they can win without Kawhi. I think we just need to move on from that and treat this season as a new season.
There’s a lot of Raptors who were great at things sometimes last season, who will now need to be great at those things all the time, for this team to succeed. Leonard was Toronto’s offensive release valve last year, accounting for 30% of the Raps offensive usage. With him gone, I really think this group is going to struggle generating offense in the half court. Freddy was sniper from deep sometimes. Gasol was a brilliant passer sometimes. Lowry was assertive offensively sometimes. Without a communal uptick in consistency, scoring points is going to be a hell of a lot more difficult.
Toronto’s depth is far too thin. I know that seems odd, especially as the team has hung its hat on great depth for years, and my answer to the greatest strength was the collective defensive ability of the rotation. But the rotation seems short, and Toronto only used eight players (with the eighth, Davis, playing in only 15 minutes, and the top-seven all at 26 or above). Toronto can’t play its veterans 40 minutes a night, and the team needs more reliable contributors over the marathon season. Nurse is skeptical of players like Hollis-Jefferson and Boucher, but at some point he’ll have to trust them. Also, Toronto’s biggest weakness will definitely be load management.
What will Toronto’s record be after the regular season? What seed will that get them?
51-31, for the third seed in the East.
54-28
My guess would be somewhere between 48 and 52 wins, and the 3 or 4 seed in the Eastern Conference. They’re a veteran team with a chip on their shoulder about being underestimated, and that’ll help win a lot of games in an Eastern Conference where most teams have serious questions.
Toronto will win between 49-53. I know this may sound blindly optimistic. But this team is a top 3 team in the Eastern Conference if healthy. The way Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet played on opening night, albeit just a sample of one game, proved that they can score, along with playing great defense. I say the Raptors are the third seed.
48-34. Fourth seed.
Adam Robles
52-30. 3rd seed. They are talented and know how to win in the regular season.
Vegas set their expected win total at 47.5 and I have them at a slight over at 48-34, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I think the Raps squeak out home-court advantage and nab the 4 seed.
I peg Toronto at 47 wins, good for fourth in the East. They will have some load management games cost them some winnable ones, and it’s likely that Fred and Pascal aren’t both MVP caliber players quite yet. When Lowry is off the floor, the offense will struggle. An injury to any one of their top-seven could launch a losing streak. There will be a lot of obstacles this year, even if the team is mega talented, experienced, and focussed.
How far is Toronto going in the playoffs?
Second round. Going to make the eventual champs (76ers) work incredibly hard before bowing out.
They’ll be in a pain in the butt to either Philadelphia or Milwaukee in round 2 but won’t have enough to beat either team (assuming health) this year. Second round exit which is sad to say.
The second round, I would guess at this point. It’s not that they can’t beat Philadelphia or Milwaukee again in a series, but it’d be hard to favor them against either of those teams based on what we know right now.
Eastern Conference Finals. They will host the first round, have a hard fought seven game series in the second round. And bow out in the third round. This team is battle tested and with the Eastern Conference wide open, don’t be surprised if the Raptors are once again in the mix.
Round two. I think they could beat every team in the East except for Milwaukee and Philadelphia.
Adam Robles
If they keep the team they currently have, I’m still projecting them to lose a game 7 in the second round. I just don’t see them getting past the 76ers or the Bucks in a 7 game series. However, they still have a ton of talent and have gone through the gauntlet together so anything is possible. God, I’m hoping they can find a way!
If this group stays intact, I predict a second round exit. But I do think that Masai has an eye toward the future, and will field any offers that could bolster the long-term outlook for this Franchise. Such a move could uproot their postseason projection.
Sometimes it pays to throw these things together. For example, I and I alone know that almost everyone else basically had the same prediction. So I’ll make a bold prediction and say that the Raptors will make it to the Eastern Conference Finals. Their defense will be absolutely ferocious, and if all the guys who seem to have taken steps forward indeed have, Toronto would be able to engineer solid shots in varying ways against playoff defenses. Last year, Philadelphia only hung with Toronto because of Jimmy Butler, and Milwaukee couldn’t hang with Toronto at all. I know Kawhi, blah blah blah, but both of Philadelphia and Milwaukee have weaknesses and got worse, too. Besides, the Bulls went to the Eastern Conference Finals after Jordan left. Why can’t Toronto?
