Kyle Lowry Start is Strong but Raises Questions for Toronto Raptors

It appears that the $31 million one-year contract extension for Kyle Lowry was a worthwhile investment. Before the season started, the Toronto Raptors paid their long-serving point guard to keep him out of next year’s free agent market. But also to solidify his place and legacy as one of the franchise’s best players.

Lowry’s start to the season was marked by his opening night speech to the Raptors home crowd, along with the unveiling of a championship banner. He is the now last lineup player to be announced, achieving the veteran, champion status that he has been striving for his whole career.

But it is Lowry’s performance on the court that has inspired the confidence of the Raptors team. The defending 2018/19 NBA champions are off to a 4-1 start, and could easily be undefeated if it weren’t for a few careless turnovers down the stretch against the Boston Celtics.

While Pascal Siakam is getting accustomed to his higher offensive usage, and OG Anunoby is showing his defensive toughness, it is Lowry who continues to display a consistent hustle on both sides of the floor. Through five games, Lowry is averaging 21.6 points per game with a 61.5 percent true shooting percentage. He is a pivotal role in facilitating the ball movement Raptors offense, evidenced by his average of seven assists per game.

Even when the Raptors aren’t playing their best offensively, Lowry has shown early on that he can play the igniter role in paving the way to wins. In Monday’s contest against the Orlando Magic on retro jersey night, the Raptors were struggling to convert baskets, coughing up a lead in the fourth quarter.

Lowry would be the chief point producer down the stretch, scoring 10 of his 26 points in the 4th quarter to propel the Raptors to a scrappy 104-95 win over he Magic. He would add 20 points, five rebounds and eight assists as the Raptors beat the Detroit Pistons 125-113 last Wednesday, where the team shot 59.3 percent from the field and converted 13 three-pointers.

“I gotta do what I gotta do to help my team win and whatever coach decides to do, you know, I’ll fall into line with that,” Lowry said.

The question that remains with Lowry is whether his performance can sustain over the course of an 82 game season.

Source: Basketball-Reference

Currently, Nurse is running an seven-man rotation, with Lowry averaging 39 minutes per game. Last season, Lowry averaged 34 minutes per game over 65 games played. This roster scheme similar to what the Raptors executed in the playoffs, relying on seven and eight players to carry them to a championship.

But given Lowry’s age and susceptibility to injuries, there will most likely be a price to pay for the amount of minutes he is logging. Coupled with fellow point guard Fred VanVleet, the backcourt is averaging a combined 76.2 minutes per game while being in the top three in scoring on the team.

Last season, Lowry had to miss an extended period of time nursing a back and thigh contusion injuries. In the playoffs, the Raptors point guard battled through a thumb injury, which required surgery before the start of this season. In 2016/17, Lowry missed 18 games due to a broken wrist.

Eventually, the Raptors will have to wind back Lowry’s minutes so that he can be healthy and productive come playoff time. This means the team will have to go deeper into the rotation to fill the void when Lowry is not on the court.

“The minutes a little high for me,” Nurse said. “Certainly he’s got off to a great start and he’s certainly playing great. So we’ll try to trim a little bit off that as we get a little more comfortable.”

Expect to see more playing time for guards Norman Powell, Patrick McCaw, Terence Davis and Matt Thomas, who have played some minutes this season.

Source: Basketball-Reference

All four players will need more playing time to show if they can jump in and carry the offense if Lowry misses time. Powell, who is averaging 8.4 points per game in five games played, needs to take care of the ball better and reduce his turnovers (10 so far this season). While Nurse has expressed his desire to use McCaw more, he will need to show his willingness to take more than five field goal attempts in two games played.

Terence Davis has shown glimpses of defensive brilliance, but has struggled on the offensive end, going 3-for-11 in field goals made so far this season. And while Matt Thomas has shown promise from beyond the arc, generating his only points from three, the sample size is too small to determine if it can translate to offensive consistency.

Ideally, Nurse will look to rotate a combination of four guards, which include Lowry and VanVleet. But with imminent road trips and back to back games coming up in the schedule, the Raptors will have to see if their bench players can fit into the lineup.

Depth is a difficult phenomenon to achieve. The only way to see if a team has it is to try out different combinations of lineups, particularly early in the season.

“Even second units take their own shape and that time to learn each other, about what we’re doing,” Nurse said. “We’re getting there … Better spacing, a bit better off ball cutting, all those things.”

As the Raptors prepare to take on the Milwaukee Bucks, their Eastern Conference Finals opponent in the 2019 NBA Playoffs, expect Lowry to once again play a lot of minutes. His fervent energy and basketball IQ will be put on full display as he looks to conquer Giannis Antetokounmpo and company.

But if the Raptors franchise point guard were to miss some time this season, the team’s depth will be called into question, determining the ceiling of this team.