Hear me out: What if we’ve already seen the best that Norman Powell has to offer?
Would that be the worst thing in the world? Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big fan of Powell’s. One of my cats is even named Norman. He’s exciting to watch when he hits a big three in a critical moment or takes it to the rim with an intense dunk.
That doesn’t make up for turnovers that are the result of poor decisions to drive into traffic with no place to go. It doesn’t negate the missed layups. So many that some Raptors fans have joked at the idea of a Powell missed layup drinking game.
Yes, looking at his numbers this season, he has statistically improved in both of those areas. His turnovers are down to 10% from 13-14%. His shooting at the rim is up to 66% from the low 60s. Although I was happy to see that improvement through the first part of the season it needed to come with a little something else for me to jump on the Powell hype train- consistency. Now that play has resumed in Orlando, Powell is, unfortunately, proving my hesitation to have been warranted.
In the Raptors first three games in Orlando, Powell has shot only 36% from the field (down from 49% on the season) and gone 4 of 14 from range (29%) in a little under 25 MPG. His 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 4 turnovers with a combined +/- of -23 have all come together to leave me underwhelmed.
Starting Calibre?
Just before the resumption of the NBA in Orlando, I saw an exchange on Twitter wherein a couple of Raptors fans said that Powell should be starting over Fred VanVleet. Um… really? Sure, VanVleet could provide a boost off the bench for the team, no question. That said, there are two big reasons why VanVleet should be starting before even getting into statistics. First of all, VanVleet sees himself as a starter. If we want to keep him around in free agency (and I think we can all agree that we do) we can’t play him off the bench, period. Especially now as the league at large has seen and acknowledged just what he brings to the floor.
Secondly, the possibility of having Kyle Lowry free of the responsibility of running plays with VanVleet handling the ball has been wildly successful this season when both have been available. The options that are available to the starting five with two high IQ ball handlers on the floor are virtually limitless.
The numbers only strengthen my stance on Powell coming off the bench. VanVleet has averaged double-digit points in two of his four seasons, including this one. Plus, his production has increased year-over-year: 2.9 PPG in his 2016-17 rookie season grew to 8.6 and 11.0 the following two seasons. VanVleet’s minutes, unsurprisingly, mirror that upswing in offensive production.
On the other hand, Powell’s inconsistency is apparent in both his minute and point averages: 5.6 PPG in his rookie season grew to 8.6 in year two only to drop back to 5.5 in his third year. While both VanVleet and Powell’s minutes have seen an increase with the departure of Kawhi Leonard, VanVleet’s overall trajectory both in minutes and offensive production have been without the crests and dips that Powell’s numbers show. I did mention my desire for consistency from Powell, yes?
When it comes to Powell, my concern is that the aforementioned poor decisions and missed layups should really be a thing of the past by now. Every player has those nights where it just seems like there’s a lid on the basket when it comes to shooting. That’s just part of the game. Making the right pass or finishing at the rim though? At this point, Powell should be handling business in those categories enough that we don’t have to have this conversation at all.
If there was an improvement in his ability to create for his teammates it would lessen the frustration of Powell’s up and down performances. In his rookie year, Powell averaged 1 AST. In the most incremental of increases over five seasons, this year he’s managed to bring his average to 1.8. In the words of Marshall and Lily, “Not good enough!” Meanwhile, VanVleet’s assists are another stat line with an upward trending arc.
When a guy drives into traffic in ways that create unnecessary turnovers there’s one constant that Powell should be capitalizing on. If there are three guys around you, two of your teammates are open. We’ve seen the Raptors create wide-open three-point opportunities time and again using dribble penetration. Powell is doing the first part of that but hasn’t been able to get to the point of making the decision to kick the ball out. This seems like an obvious way for Powell to improve his ability to create for his teammates. The fact that it hasn’t happened keeps him firmly within the realm of a finisher and VanVleet firmly more deserving of starting minutes.
Not a Future All-Star
I don’t believe Powell has an All-Star nod in his future. More importantly, I think that’s okay. Not everyone can be or will be an All-Star. Raptors’ fans have been spoiled in the best way the past few years when it comes to seeing NBA unknowns grow to become bona fide stars. Besides the undrafted phenom VanVleet, of course, Pascal Siakam’s rise from 27th overall draft pick to number one option on a championship team has been a story that’s impossible not to love. Serge Ibaka has played the best basketball of his career in a Raptors uniform. OG Anunoby is currently making waves with his production and lockdown defense even within the Raptors’ own fanbase.
While Powell is among those as a former second-round pick, I don’t believe he will reach quite those heights. It’s not a criticism. I don’t even think it’s necessarily a bad thing. I think it’s just true. Powell will always be a serviceable player. He’s going to continue to be an asset to whatever team he suits up for. Every team needs those role players who do not have to carry the pressure of being a number one, two, or even five option. On a lesser team than the Raptors, I think he would be able to earn regular starting minutes.
Having enjoyed the high-satisfaction “Playoff Powell” moments, it’s easy to have high hopes that just maybe that incarnation of Powell will one day become permanent. I think that’s a little too much to hope. While there is certainly no comparison in overall talent levels, Powell reminds me a bit of a former Raptor that often made my want to pull my hair out, Greivis Vasquez. I’ll give you a minute for you to reassemble the pieces of your blown mind before I go on.
I can’t overstate this: I do not think that Powell and Vasquez’s overall talent levels are comparable. That said, I can’t help but see the parallels between two players whose lack of consistency leaves so much to be desired. Then there’s that almost uncanny ability to step up in big-time moments in ways that leave fans going, “Why can’t he play like that all the time!?” There’s no way you can convince me that one is not reminiscent of the other.
Within the flexibility of Nick Nurse’s system, I expect to see Powell start from time-to-time. More often, I expect to see him be the first or second guy off the bench. I’m happy with that. That’s where I believe Powell will be the most effective and where his continued basketball foibles will carry the least possible liability.
If Powell doesn’t have considerably more to offer than this season’s 16 PPG on 49% shooting from the field that’s okay. As fans, let’s appreciate him for what he is. He doesn’t need to be more than that to have a career-long fan in this Raptors faithful.
