Over-reliance on the jumper.
Pascal Siakam will probably find the right mix this season. As it currently stands though, he’s been getting reps in for his jumper, taking what the defense gives him, and making good decisions as a passer. By the time the fourth quarter rolls around it becomes evident that he’s been game planned and gamed a little bit. The Raptors shouldn’t be trying to emulate Siakam’s rim pressure with other players while he stretches his legs beyond the arc. There needs to be intention and an element of necessity to get Siakam downhill and to the bucket. The Raptors ceiling becomes the basement if Siakam abandons his length and touch at the rim for jumpers only. Nearly 50-percent of his shots are coming from mid-range.
It’s important to note teams are really loading up on Siakam this year.
pascal is struggling to score in the paint, but also the spacing around him isn’t helping pic.twitter.com/IxGr0jxgtt
— William Lou (@william_lou) December 30, 2020
Fred VanVleet is a notoriously bad finisher at the rim and doesn’t create opportunities at the bucket for teammates very often. OG Anunoby doesn’t have the handle to get himself to the bucket against a set defense consistently. Kyle Lowry is the only thing keeping the Raptors afloat. Norman Powell has the highest free throw rate among the rotation players, but he hasn’t made a shot at the rim yet this year. It’s been shockingly bad. Siakam isn’t the whole answer here, but he holds, let’s say, a hefty stimulus package in his hands.
If you’re a Raptors fan, you’ve been watching teams march back to victory against them by getting to the bucket and the free throw line – something the Raptors have done very little of sans Kyle Lowry. The Raptors are currently shooting the lowest amount of free throws per game in NBA history at 13.7.
“He’s our closer. He’s gonna get the opportunities. He’s gotta find his balance and his strength a little bit, and he’s gonna have to produce on a few more of those shots.” – Nick Nurse on Pascal Siakam
Nurse had additional comments about Siakam needing to finish stronger at the end of his drives. Driving to score as opposed to driving to draw fouls.
Keep in mind, Siakam’s rise to prominence hinged on his ability to make shots near the bucket, at speed, and over length. The development of his 3-point shot was initially on the backburner. He’s definitively capable of stopping short and hitting a floater, extending wide and flashing touch, or beating the defender to the glass. This is all small sample size theatre, of course, and he did have to face Ben Simmons with Joel Embiid in help-side last game, but too often this year Siakam’s counter has been a fadeaway mid-range shot when teams are dropping low.
His best offensive game came against the Spurs and it was because he showcased an array of finishes. Both sides of the bucket were in play, and he didn’t get locked into the place where his offense goes to die – the right side of the floor, inside the arc, and outside of the restricted area. As it currently stands, Siakam is only a cross-key scorer when going to his right. You can sit him on the left block (despite Jaylen Brown and the bubble he’s still a good player here) and he can spin or drop-step to the glass, muscle middle for a hook, and he can pass to any corner of the court from that spot. When he’s on the right block or 45-extended, he typically can’t get to the front of the rim going left, so players sit on his right hand and he usually transitions into a fadeaway or a cross-court pass.
All this to say, the Raptors are leaving Siakam on an island too often to create when screen-help isn’t hard to come by or ask for. Prior to the game against the 76ers, Siakam had used 12 pick n’ roll possessions (as the ball-handler) and the Raptors scored 16 points on those possessions – per Louis Zatzman’s excellent pick n’ roll piece – and it creates opportunities for switches that Siakam can take advantage of. Even if Siakam isn’t punishing the switch himself, drawing extra attention before passing is just good basketball. And if there’s one concrete aspect of Siakam’s game to feel good about this year, it’s his passing, which has been dynamic.
There’s work to be done by Siakam. A proper mix of his strengths and counters can go a long way paired with honest accounts of where the help-side defense is. Confidence, touch, and awareness have fueled hundreds of careers. I also have no complaints about how often he’s launching from downtown. It’s all about choosing spots, and recognizing when you’re in a run, be it good or bad.
Pin-down into a floater, screen and short-roll into a floater, and a mismatch on the left-block. A little bit of screen help goes a long way.
It’s more troubling that Nurse & co. continue to move away from obvious on-court strengths (by the numbers) that would help their players succeed. Siakam is not James Harden-esque, he won’t lift the offense to new heights with isolations (he’s near the top of the league in frequency, and the bottom in efficiency). The lack of structure in the offense puts the onus on players to create shots with ingenuity and talent, but Lowry is the only one on the team who thrives in that style. There are underperforming players, but it genuinely seems as if the on-court talent is being failed a bit by the lack of creativity in the architecture of the offense.
The bounce back, or lack thereof should be interesting.
Have a blessed day.
