Fan Duel Toronto Raptors

Five Things I Dig and Don’t Dig about the Toronto Raptors

This week on Five Things, I talk Refs, Scottie the Spy, Isolations, #FreeYuta, and Leadership.

by

Holler at IG/tansley24 and IG/zach_nph for the wicked graphic and the Raptors for the photos used

Felt like there were no games this week. Toronto played Sunday, Wednesday, and are in Phoenix tonight. I still have some thoughts.

1. Mo’ Iso Mo Problems

Toronto’s half-court offence stinks.

That’s nothing new. Last year, they were 20th in points per play in the half-court. This year…20th.

It’s not a question of health. OG, Scottie, Pascal, Freddy, and Gary are in the 23rd percentile among 5-man lineups in half-court scoring. This team lives and dies in transition (they’re 5th in the league in transition points per play).

Despite their meagre success, Toronto persistently relies on a heavy dose of isolation, to no avail.

Toronto’s 2nd in the league in isolation frequency (10%), but 26th in points per possession. If you break it down by player this is what you got:

  • Pascal: 24% of his possessions, 0.84 points per possession, equal to Anthony Edwards
  • Freddy: 9.7% of his possessions, 0.79 points per possession, equal to Brandon Ingram
  • OG: 12% of his possessions, 0.66 points per possession, equal to Davion Mitchell
  • Scottie: 10.6% of his possessions, 0.89 points per possession, equal to RJ Barrett
  • Gary: 7.8% of his possessions, 1.07 points per possessions, equal to Jrue Holiday

That production is fine en papier. When I watch, though, it’s a lot harder to stomach. It’s often slow, uninspiring, and/or, harmless.

Stuff like this:

 

I’ll ride or die with Pascal one-on-one all day. Especially against Finnish Brontosauri. Still, it exemplifies the static nature of Toronto’s isolations. No one on the Cavs is worried about anyone except Pascal – a swath of long arms await nearby. They’re all standing waiting for him to get by Lauri Markkanen. Pascal’s so good at that jumper, it matters little. But it’s a less reliable shot than uncontested ones or ones at the rim.

There’s a multitude of these kinds of plays with Pascal. Detroit played Pascal straight up most possessions relying on Jerami Grant’s defence. Pascal tore’em (28 points on 10/15). When they did double, he evaded it and found the open guy.

 

That’s Pascal, though.

I’m unconvinced that this team needs to continue to orchestrate isolations for the rest – other than maybe Scottie. Toronto’s virtually last in assists and 27th in potential assists; they’re clearly not creating a lot for others. Instead, these guys need more plays and actions that get them to the spots they’re most comfortable in motion.

Gary’s cold as a Coors Lite, let’s throw him into a RIP Hamilton-volume of off-ball plays. Scottie’s looked better in isolation, but he’s still a greater threat in actions that get him downhill – like dribble-hand-offs, cross screens, high-lows, and P&Rs (more on that). Freddy can do what Freddy wants because it’s Freddy, but getting him off-ball makes more sense too and alleviates the wear&tear. OG in the post, in the post, in the post.

We don’t see any of this as much as I think we should despite proven success.

In the pick and roll, for example, Toronto’s 10th in points per possession (0.89) for ballhandlers, but 27th in frequency. They’re also 24th in points per possessions and 28th in frequency with the roll man in the P&R.

That, I think can be resolved by changing who is doing the screening. The top-3 roll men by frequency are Khem Birch (1.3 possessions), Boucher (1), Precious (0.9), and Pascal (0.9). That’s despite their top 3 screeners by points per possession being Pascal (1.38 ppp), Freddy (1.24), and Khem (1.19) with Precious and Scottie following. There’s proven success in the P&R, it’s a matter of choosing the combinations that work and the subsequent actions that follow.

Long-term, Scottie’s the best P&R option. He’s scoring 0.98 points per possession right now on 0.7 possessions a game as the ballhandler. Dribbling’s his greatest weakness, though. As the screener, he’s put in a position to attack without needing a tight dribble to slip through narrow corridors. Instead, he can scan the landscape: pull-up if he’s open or rip, jab, fake, and go or one-dribble floater, or find a cutter or open shooter as the defence scrambles in rotation. He can play a very similar role as Bam Adebayo, who runs it 3 times a game and scores 1.15 points per possession. Tell me you don’t see Scottie in these:

 

Let’s spam the pick and roll amongst the scorers and playmakers (Pascal, Scottie, Thad, OG, and Freddy) – no more Khem and Chris, and less Precious – with Gary and OG running around off-ball creates a lot of complexity and movement that spawns additional complexity and movement.

I am not saying that it’s a simple fix. I understand there’s more nuance and stuff to consider than some dude at a desk going MORE THIS LESS THAT. I’m no mastermind, obviously; only partly.

I’m just saying, from a quick glance at the data and from what I am watching, I’m not all that convinced that this rate of isolation is their path to offensive success.

2. Pascal’s Leadership

It’s been a tough stretch for Toronto post-All-Star break. They’re 3-5 with some embarrassing losses to the East’s mediocrity and tough losses against cellar-dwellers.

Through it all, though, Pascal has remained a professional.

It’s been hard having, virtually, no help – other than Scottie Barnes. The responsibility has fallen on him and him alone.

In that stretch, Pascal averaged 19 points, 7 boards, and 4 assists on 50% true shooting with a 26% usage rate. The numbers aren’t astounding except that he fought a one-man war possession after possession, minute after minute. The rest of the team averaged a combined 86 points.

The other, more important, part to me, has been Pascal’s leadership. He’s not been sulky; he hasn’t yelled at his teammates or blamed them or given up. He’s taken ownership for his and the team’s failures whether they were his fault or not. Rather, he’s persevered, leading by example and encouraging others along the way.

It struck me when I saw his reaction to Khem’s And-1 the other night against Cleveland.

Poor Khem. He’s missed a tonne of games. He’s found zero rhythm. His face has taken a beating.

It’s been tough.

He’s struggled since returning from a broken nose. His push shot hasn’t dropped, he botches passes, and hasn’t looked particularly impactful defensively. Against the Cavs he finished 2/8, you could feel his frustration despite finishing a team-high +20.

In the 4th, he scored his 3rd and 4th points, thanks to a Pascal dish and Pascal went right out of his way to celebrate him. Not to celebrate each other, but to commend Khem. Like, “See, man, you can do this. We’re with you.” At least, that’s how I read it. I gush for that kind of thing, so maybe I overread it. See if you can see what I saw:

 

Regardless, I’ve felt this team is well beyond its age in maturity and resilience and I attribute a tonne of that to Freddy and Pascal’s, different, but effective leadership styles.

3. Scottieonage

Espionage – spying, counterintelligence, sabotage, and the like – is a major part of professional sports. Just ask Bill Bellichick or the Houston Astros.

Scottie’s a savvy Intelligence Officer, out in the field collecting information behind enemy lines.

A bit obvious. But it’s a start.

4. #FreeYuta

Might need a RaptorsRepublic 30-for-30 investigation into Yuta Watanabe’s prolonged disappearance.

I’m perplexed.

Toronto’s been absolutely wretched from 3 and yet Yuta who – not including Thaddeus Young – is Toronto’s 3rd best three-point shooter at 37% gets no action. In the last 8 games Yuta has played, he’s shot 4/9 from the arc. Including this puppy:

There’s no reason he shouldn’t be out there chucking 4-5 bombs a game. It’s not like shooting’s his only ability either. He’s shown some spunk off a triple threat, he’s is 3rd in blocks per 36 minutes, and is a reliable, switchable on-ball defender and a terrific off-ball one. Every time he escapes the dog house, he posterizes someone on some end of the floor:

And yet, in the last 25 games, he’s DNPed 11 of them, even with OG sidelined. The minutes he has played have mostly been garbage time.

I don’t get it.

This team craves shooting and, other than the Cavs and Spurs games, have desperately needed hustle, energy, and determination. That spells Yuta.

It’s not about fit or that he’s a novelty bench guy. Yuta’s only played 200 minutes alongside Freddy and Pascal, but their point differential is 0. He can play the 2 in big lineups or the 4 in smaller ones.

There’s something profoundly wrong when Nurse is continually going back to Svi for Hail Mary minutes. Or throwing Banton out there in stretches when there’s already a non-shooter, like Birch, alongside him.

Makes no sense.

I need to know.

I gotta know.

Someone investigate this and let me know what’s going on.

#FreeYuta.

5. Special PReferreence

NBA writer, Tom Haberstroh, tweeted this recently:

Surprise, surprise, Toronto gets, on average, basically the worst set of referees in the league. Look at the other 4 teams below and above: of those 8 teams, only Cleveland has a better record. Total disrespect.

What’s the reasoning you may ask?

Well, Tom’s answer will probably likely anger you further. Nationally televised games get the best refs; therefore, the teams who play the most on national TV, get the best reffing.

In case you forgot:

That’s right, Toronto has two nationally televised games – 19 less than the Knicks and 11 less than the Hawks, both of whom are below them in standings – in the entire season.

It’s one thing to be annoyed by lack of American media coverage. I’ve accepted that. But when there’s actual consequences to the games played as a result of being nationally televised or not, that’s prejudice I can’t abide by.

The League is knowingly giving certain teams better referees more often.

The conspiracy continues. Take away the nationally televised games, and, still, the bigger market teams receive better referees on average:

Having good versus bad referees doesn’t give any one team a particular advantage, assuming referees don’t have it out for individual players or teams – they likely do, they are, after all, human. It does, however, affect the quality of the games.

Good referees call even-handed games. Good referees know not to bog games down with incessant foul-calling or how to control a game getting out of hand or how to communicate with players and coaches that coaxes a better quality of basketball.

Bad referees can also negatively impact the game by making a disproportionate number of bad calls for or against a team: a differential in free throws or a player fouling out for example can have major implications on the results of the game.

Mostly, though, this comes down to us fans. The NBA is purposely choosing to give fans of bigger market teams a better quality of product than us.

That’s a piss off.

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