Five Things I Dig and Don’t Dig About the Toronto Raptors

I’m back after a week hiatus.

Things haven’t been so hot of late. Sadly.

My over 47 games bet is feeling a bit flimsy at the moment. Sweaty hands as I type this thinking that I probably should of kept that money for rent…

No! I shan’t relent.

In the darkest hour, we must point the light forward or something.

When all else seems lost, we must look inward to know we are found, I think.

Confidence, friends, confidence.

This team is too good. Look at Dallas and Boston last year. Exact same doubt and calls for heads. Both made it to the Conference Finals.

So panic not.

Yet.

1. Sticky Freddy

Freddy finally had a breakout game against Sacramento on Wednesday. In a really wonderfully encouraging way.

Not your typical barrage of deep threes. In fact, his deep shot is still a concerning deficit, which the team is well aware of apparently:

On Wednesday, it was a rare barrage of paint attacks.

Look at that shot chart.

Bowl after bowl into the lane with incisive crosses and mean-shoulder bashes to sternums. It really was atypical to see – refreshingly so. Samson lauds him further.

Still, there are moments where Freddy’s determination gets a bit…frustrating. For me when I watch, and, apparently for others too:

Scottie’s “outrage” isn’t all that justified. Freddy was on a heater most of the game; he had the killer instinct coursing through his veins and had a team high 34% usage rate (!). Pascal also got an easy post-entry. Still, as Scottie’s expressively demonstrating, Freddy, can, at times, hold the ball a tad too much. The play below exemplifying it best.

This clip starts with 9 seconds remaining. 12 seconds earlier, Scottie handed the ball off to Freddy at the top left side of the floor. Freddy fumbles a dribble combination against Harrison Barnes, vaults into the key and dribbles out to the opposite side with Domantas Sabonis tagging and following. Freddy then tries to get by Sabonis unsuccessfully for five whole seconds. Bringing us to what you witnessed above.

Two failed attempts to get by multiple defenders. Then a third and then a huck. Not a single pass after the 21 second mark. All Freddy.

This one’s less egregious. But it’s a good representation of the blinders Freddy sometimes sports.

In transition, with no numbers, Freddy penetrates as four Kings converge. Not ideal. A. No rebounders. B. Had Freddy slowed for a second, Scottie would have sealed Terrence Davis in the post.

Look, I can’t criticize every individual play. Everyone is guilty of something at some point. Freddy does immense heavy lifting for this team too. He’s allowed to play with his food a bit. Still, sticky balls [lol] hurts this team a lot with an offence as slow as tectonic plates shifting.

I’ve said all along Freddy off-ball is best. On-ball sometimes is fine. Especially, when he’s hot. But then plays like those happen where determination is overkill.

At the beginning of the year, we got the Freddy we should see. In his first six games, 16% usage rate with a 29% assist percentage. Since, 24% usage and 24% assist percentage. You might argue that the increase in usage and decrease in distribution was due to Pascal’s absence. Well, in the 9 games since Pascal has been back: 23% usage, 25% assist percentage. The same.

The Raps also play slower when Freddy is on the floor, their pace dropping by 4 possessions. Which as we know, this team does not want to do.

Maybe there’s a change in plans. I don’t know the ins and outs of Nurse’s great wizardry. Maybe there’s other data I’m missing suggesting that more Freddy on-ball is a good thing.

All I know, is from what I’m watching, this team flows wayyyy better when Freddy’s not the predominant ball dominator. Particularly, with Scottie perking up of late as a distributor.

2. More Pascal, More Pascal, More Pascal

Speaking of sharing the ball.

CAN WE PLEASE GIVE PASCAL THE BALL MORE?

We have a superstar player.

A top-10 NBA hooper.

So let’s give him the ball, shall we!?

Look at this. As of Thursday morning, there are 11 guys in the NBA who average more than 24 points and 5 assists and shoot 45+ FG%.

Only Jokić – criminally so – has a usage rate lower than Pascal. Which might be a bit purposeful to get Jamal Murray back in the running. Pascal leads the Raptors by 8 percentage points in terms of usage. So he is the focal point. Duh. The Raptors score 14 more first chance points and 9 more points per 100 possessions with Pascal on the floor.

We need more. Put the pressure on the opposing teams. If they don’t, Pascal lambastes. Isolation or double. Doesn’t matter. The usage increase is not just because of his scoring, but because he’s become such a good passer and foul drawer (94th percentile among forwards in percentage of shots that they are fouled on) too.

There’s also some statistical evidence to suggest that more Pascal-usage means more winning. In losses 28.8% usage; wins 29.5%.

So many Raptors possessions, we see crap out. A lot an utter waste with Pascal not really being involved in the play. Conversely, look how easy it is to get Pascal in a spot to score.

A set play out of half time. Scottie goes high-post. Freddy back screens Pascal to get him into the post on a switch. Boom foul. Two free throws.

Why not spam these actions? Inverse Pascal and Scottie, do it again. Inverse Freddy and Scottie, do it again. And so on and so forth.

Pascal’s a Superstar. He needs to be treated more like one. A good start is upping that usage rate into the thirties and seeing what happens.

It’s not exactly like we’re flourishing with other options anyway.

3. A Question of Entertainment + Data

When it’s all said and done, isn’t this all about fun?

I mean the tears and curses and punched pillows are simply varied manifestations of joy. Right? C’monnn, if I can convince myself of that, you can too.

That said, the last ten Toronto Raptor games (4-6) have not been the most fun. Losing when you expect to really win stinks.

Funny enough, according to Inpredictable, from a statistical perspective, the games haven’t been all that fun either.

The Raptors are last (5.09) in the Excitement Index (League average: 6.33) and tied for last (0.63) in the Tension Index (League average: 0.71) in the last ten games*. Guess what team is second last and tied with Toronto for last: Orlando.

*Not sure how the EI is measured. I imagine something to do with back+forth data. TI is measured based on how close win probability stays at 50/50).

Great, so the one team that’s basically as boring as we are SMACKED the Raptors twice. Fun…

Is this data the absolute quintessential example of inexplicably trying to shove numbers into a feeling that is unquantifiable in every numerical way?

Probably.

Until meandering over to the site, I hadn’t really given it any thought. So, not like there was a dire need for this measurement. Besides, like a curmudgeon, I’d just accepted the pain and misery as all part of the joy process. The drudgery of losing to lesser teams and getting metaphorically spanked my flagellation.

If I look back and really try and think of the games, perhaps they were somewhat lackluster.

Dallas solid W and fun win. Cleveland commanding victory – maybe, objectively not fun, definitely, subjectively, fun. Then, cliff meet gravity. Pels a thumping. Nets fake comeback. Orlando we thumped quick and early. Celts fake comeback. Lakers a G League win. Orlando utter disappointment. Orlando utter disappointment. Kings pretty fun.

There wasn’t much clutch involved either, which always get the exhilaration glands producing. Toronto was 23rd in total clutch minutes played in those games.

Maybe it’s true. Maybe the losing and the poor aesthetic has made for a poor experience. Inpredictable is not alone in the suggestion.

For what it’s worth, I don’t think so. The growing pains, the ugly losses, the frustration. That’s the entertainment. Finding the slivers of optimism and the nuggets of encouragement. That’s why we’re fans.

I recall a sudden depression after the Raptors won in 2019. Now what? I asked myself. Back to wondering who we’re going to sign for Summer League. On with it.

So indulge the losing and perplexity of what this team is and should be doing. It is the fun.

I think the last ten games were pretty good. Our subconscious puts us at risk of rolling all of those misremembered incremental moments of joy into one big ball of dung. Don’t let it.

Maybe this data is telling us something true. Or, maybe it lacks the colour to make it contextually false. Either way, I’m not sure you can calculate how I truly feel watching a team I love.

This data is probably best for me to figure out whether it’s worth watching Charlotte Hornets games on a Wednesday night or not. I think I know the answer without looking up the EIs, TI, and AIs.

Data versus experience.

Matter of opinion really.

4. Yay, BENCH GARY

Nothing new here in analysis.

A chance to gloat.

Allow me that.

I get so much wrong. You all disagree with what I say anyway.

So maybe, nexttttt time you disagree with my insights, you’ll take a moment to recall, “Oh ya, Adon got it right one time.” That concession is all I need. A seed of doubt to germinate and root and spread and grow and convince you all that everything that I churn out in a weekly count of five topics is, indeed, almost always….

Correct :).

Anyway, I wrote this. Preseason folks, preeeeee-season. That’s right. A blog boy Nostradame, I am.

And, now, it bears fruit.

Gary has now become the bench guy. Maybe it’s coincidence. That Gary’s cold-ass month of November was destined to thaw – bench or non. Conjecture, mon adversaire, conjecture!

Reality is, since moving to the bench, Gary has arisen as the very scoring spark that this team needs a Van fleet more of.

Gary the Starter 17 GP | 16.7 PTS | 1.6 AST | 1.1 TO | 14.4 FGAs | 3.9 FTAs | 48 EFG% | 21.7 USG%

versus

Gary the Bench 7 GP | 18.3 PTS | 1.1 AST | 1.3 TO | 13 FGAs | 3.3 FTAs | 51 EFG% | 21.7 USG%

More points. Less attempts. Better effective field goal percentage. Same usage.

That’s the epitome of improving efficiency.

What matters to me is it’s a partial fix – of many problems IMO – to the poor balance of touches amongst this team. It was recently discussed by Oren Weisfeld and I on Tuesday, specifically, about Fred and Scottie. This team has not figured out hierarchy.

It’s Pascal. Then who?

Nurse has let that play out. Four shall enter, one shall leave. Thunderdome-type decision-making. It can work. Letting nature take its course. It can also be messy. And that it has.

The your-turn-my-turn-his-turn-my-turn can be tiresome, counterproductive and, most concerningly, draw away from Pascal (see #2 above). Which I hate too.

So, anyway, moral of the story. Adon’s right. Joking. Moral is, Gary’s found a much better (and successful) defined role on the bench, in turn providing more balance and role definition amongst the starters at-large. Though, I don’t think that’s fully achieved yet either.

Once healthy. Precious, Otto, Gary, Boucher + starter will be a nice unit that Nurse can look towards with much more comfort than he typically has for reserves.

5. Squawk Talk on the Unlock

Social media has a much too exaggerated affect on our opinions of athletes. A few static glimpses into a person’s online behaviour and we think we know. Or we at least arrive at dumb conclusions.

Ask yourself how your subconscious evaluates Malachi Flynn after Papi Eric’s little outburst few years back. I can’t help, but look at him as a little (comparatively speaking) privileged private school kid.

I don’t think that truly. I actually love Flynn’s style. He’s one of the most animated on the bench and has an intensity to him that I find inciting.

So when you see this, fight whatever conclusions you want to draw about Justin.

Instead, chuckle.

A. The CAJONES!

I mean, if we gathered the number of players who have put up at least 30 points in the G-League we could probably field a baseball charity event with a full set of relievers and an umpire crew. At least.

We’ve seen guys – including Malachi, Dalano, and SVI! – crack XXX at the lower level. We know it does not necessarily translate to the big league. Which, by the way totally blows my mind. That such a cavernous divide exists between that skill level is mindboggling. What other industry are there like 12 cavernous divides between talent tiers? Good brain bother.

Anyway, if this was a 50-pointer. I’d be writing an Op-Ed to CBC too. 34-pointer? That’s really good. Really good. Is it worth an unlock emoji and a straight up call-out to Toronto coaching staff and management?

Depends how jovially they all receive it. ‘Tis the season, is it not?

B. Ya! Free him.

He’s not wrong. JC was playing a slowly evolving role as a bench guy for the Raptors last year. Unlike, Malachi who struggles to fit to what Toronto does schematically, JC is a Raptorite. He shoots the corner three. He offensive rebounds like he’s doing geometry calculations on the run. He hustles his butt off and he can theoretically guard 3 positions.

Last year, in 447 possessions the Raptors were +13.2 per 100 possessions with JC on the floor (98th percentile in the League). Toronto’s turnover rate of opponents and offensive rebounding numbers go through the roof. No surprise.

Our bench has been super waif for weeks now with Otto, Precious, O.G. + Juancho all out. JC’s right to want to get out there.

So let him.

C. He’s my boy.

My short stint as an NBA journalist led me to a brief 1-on-1 interview with Justin.

Admittedly, I asked to interview someone who I thought no one would ask for. At the time, JC was not a guarantee to make the team.

So it was a risk on my part.

Anyway, I told JC it was my first interview ever. He was the coolest. The most honest. As though I were at a really boring party and we stumbled upon another guy who was equally obsessed with basketball and we got on like two desperate survivors clinging to a life raft.

Such a good time.

D. This is What you Want

Finally, this is what you want.

You want a dude who thinks highly of himself. Who thinks he deserves minutes. Who believes he can earn, play, and outperform those minutes.

That confidence gets elite athletes to this stage of their careers.

JC summed it up in Thursday’s 905 post-game:

“I’m back I ain’t gon’ lie.”

TIDBIT

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Happy Holidays, friends.