This year has understandably been a bit of a let down for Raptors fans, but in some ways there’s a lot that they should have seen coming. As Louis touched on in his article last week, a complete lack of any reliable half-court creators, paltry shooting, and a barebones rotation of point guards and true centres means that they still have a lot of issues to address. Permanent solutions to these roster construction issues come easily to big market teams such as Los Angeles, New York, and Miami, but teams like the Raptors usually come out of free agency negotiations with the leftovers. This means that the draft is the most important tool to developing and maintaining a strong roster for teams who struggle to attract starter-level free agents, and it’s a tool that the Raptors have somewhat neglected in recent years.
The roster construction has been noticeably flawed since the Raptors suffered that initial post-championship talent-bleed after the 2019 and 2020 seasons. Very few draft picks between 2017 and now have meant that the Raptors haven’t had a very deep development pipeline in the works to replace the fan favourite bench mob that was a franchise staple for years. The late-round draft picks and undrafted players the Raptors have picked up to try and patch that wound haven’t all worked out as well as they would have hoped, and that certainly hasn’t helped matters at all. Suddenly, we’re in this situation where the bench is bad and the Raptors don’t really have the means to fix it immediately without gutting their already shallow top-end talent and/or giving up future draft capital. Not exactly a great thing to do when you aren’t in a contending position.
This is why the draft is so important. Sure, you’re not guaranteed a star. You are however given the ability to select players who can become valuable rotation pieces or be used in future trades. Those players can develop into stars too if your scouting staff knows what they’re doing, especially if you’re selecting higher in the draft, as the talent pool becomes much deeper.
In spite of the constant losses, I find following the draft to be quite exciting. Evaluating the top prospects all year long and finding out what teams they go to on draft night is a fun and rewarding process to study. Even though the Raptors are losing, they have their pick. That pick, currently bouncing between 6th and 8th overall, could easily help establish the future core of the Toronto Raptors that has already begun construction with the selection of Scottie Barnes in 2021.
The purpose of this piece is to help Raptors fans become more acquainted with this year’s draft class. Everybody knows Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson, the projected top two players, but there are a handful of other prospects who will also serve as excellent prizes to those teams who miss out on the top two selections.
This will serve as a simple introduction to the draft class. I’;ll be providing brief summaries of the prospects. More in-depth pieces will arrive as the season goes on and we get more information about these players along with a more concrete idea of where the Raptors will be picking.
Let’s get the big ones out of the way first, shall we?
Victor Wembanyama | H: 7’2, WS: 7’9 | Forward/Big | Metropolitans 92
All kinds of basketball fans from hardcore to casual have heard the crazy hype around Frenchman Victor Wembanyama, and even then I don’t think many understand just how truly talented he is.
Measured at 7’2 (which honestly might be out of date, he’s probably closer to 7’4), Wembanyama should not move the way that he does on either end of the floor. A giant in stature, he dances around the court with the fluidity of basketball players who usually check in over half a foot shorter. He’s both an effective shooter and elite defender in practically every respect, capable of high-level rim protection as well as the ability to step out and hound the perimeter. He can put the ball on the floor and create for himself in ways that scouts haven’t seen since Kevin Durant. The offensive bag of course needs fine-tuning, but he’s so incredibly advanced both for his age. The fact that players his size simply don’t dribble the ball and create like he does means that whoever drafts him shouldn’t have much concerns with how he develops offensively. The tip-ins and rebounding of course come naturally to him due to his size, but physicality can bother him sometimes which is something to keep an eye on going forward.
He’s one of the best players in Europe at 19 years old; putting up 23 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal and 3 blocks in 32 minutes per game on shooting splits of 48.6/29.6/79.6. That three point percentage may seem low, but he’s taking over 5 attempts from deep per game. The confidence is there already, and it’s obvious he can make those shots on a bigger sample.
Blow by him? Doesn’t matter. He takes one step and he’s already at the rim getting ready to swat from the weak side.
I really hate to sound like I’m calling him a perfect prospect, but so far he’s given me no reason to say otherwise. There are injury concerns for a player with his skinnier and lankier build, but he also possesses a frame that suggests he’s capable of putting on a lot of muscle to help mitigate those concerns. Regardless, a GM passing on perhaps the best prospect to ever enter the NBA because they’re afraid he might get injured would be a move that gets them fired and blacklisted from the league.
Sterling “Scoot” Henderson | H: 6’2 (also reported as high as 6’4), WS: (reported at 6’9) | Guard | G League Ignite
Scoot is unfortunately the bridesmaid in this draft, but in any other class he’d likely be a shoo-in for the first overall pick. While his height is nothing remarkable compared to other big point guards that are trending upwards across the league, his wingspan is quite impressive, and his athleticism and quickness are major reasons as to why he’s so highly regarded despite being on the smaller side.
Both Scoot’s scoring and playmaking are elite traits. He’s pretty much putting it all together with regards to what teams are looking for from a franchise point guard.
In his second season of playing for the G League Ignite, Scoot is playing against near-NBA levels of competition. I find it difficult to find any reasons as to why his game won’t translate effectively. And not only is he playing against that high level of competition, but he’s quite simply dominating against it.
Scoot possesses a unique blend of speed and explosiveness for a point guard that scouts haven’t seen since John Wall did the dougie. It’s not like he’s simply using his athleticism to get himself buckets either, he possesses immense feel and basketball IQ that he utilizes to finish efficiently.
The mid-range game and his intelligence at facilitating the ball are also major reasons as to why Scoot is so elite as a prospect. As far as do-it-all point guards go, few are as complete as Scoot at such a young age. There were concerns with his shooting, but he’s improved greatly when compared to his first year in the G League. I don’t expect him to be an elite deep range threat right away, but the possibility certainly exists for him to reach that level down the line, and the rapid improvement supports that expectation. When he inevitably puts it all together, it’s hard not to see a franchise defining point guard.
While Wembanyama is undoubtedly the prize of this draft, the team who gets the second pick should still be overjoyed that Scoot Henderson will soon be dominating their record books.
Amen Thompson | H: 6’7, WS: (reported between 6’9 and 6’11) | Point Guard/Wing | Overtime Elite
There are some concerns with the competition level that the Thompson twins are facing. Overtime Elite is practically a high school circuit and it’s difficult to gauge how the play will translate to the league when in comparison to their college contemporaries.
That being said, there’s ultimately a reason why Amen is regarded as a top 3-5 guy in this class, and that’s because he’s just so damn good. He’s one of the smartest players that I’ve watched this cycle, with a habit of making some of the flashiest passes I’ve ever seen.
There are few examples of prospects who have come into the NBA with Amen’s athleticism, and practically none of those players have failed adapting to the league. He’s explosive. If you haven’t looked up clips of him jumping out of the gym every time his feet leave the ground, do yourself a favour and head to YouTube.
He and his brother Ausar are both elite transition players, capable of digging in on defence before exploding for highlight reel dunks when going the other direction. There are some concerns with the both of them being relatively underwhelming in half-court sets. This is an area to watch as the OTE season continues, because it’s really a piece of their games that, if improved upon, would all but guarantee their status as future all stars.
Amen’s handle is a little loose, but for his size you have to like what you’ve seen so far. The big point guard is becoming an increasingly common archetype in the NBA, and size-obsessed front offices would naturally value a 6’7 player who is capable of elite playmaking while also being able to put the ball on the floor. I don’t have many concerns with Amen’s ability to create for himself long-term.
The shooting is poor right now, and his form needs a lot of work. He has a habit of making threes in spite of this, but I wouldn’t expect him to be a consistent knockdown shooter for the first couple years. I think that with the rest of his game being so advanced at this point, any team taking him should be willing to live with that. It’s a marathon, not a race, and Amen is well equipped to run a full 42 kilometres.
Ausar Thompson | H: 6’7, WS: (reported between 6’9 and 6’11) | Wing/Forward | Overtime Elite
If Amen is the playmaking, cerebral twin with immense upside, then Ausar is best described as the more traditional basketball twin with more of an affinity for scoring and defending.
Ausar’s shooting needs work just like his brother, but he’s much more advanced in this area so far. His form has far less flaws and it’s translated to slightly better on court success. Though he’s also an elite athlete just like his brother, the way he moves with the ball when operating for a bucket is also gentler and more fluid compared to the raw explosive aggression of Amen.
He’s also someone that I have a lot of faith in defending 2-4 as well. The defensive aspect of his game is more focused than his brother, and his big size and sturdy frame help him out a lot in this regard. Amen’s no slouch, but Ausar simply makes his money here right now, which explains why his transition numbers are so fantastic.
Should the Raptors end up in the 4-7 range of the draft, and assuming Vic, Scoot, and Amen go ahead of him, I would have to say Ausar is currently the guy I would value the most. The Raptors are in dire need of a player who can elevate their offence, and while Ausar needs to develop his half-court abilities, he’s honestly the best bet to fulfill that role at their current draft position.
Nick Smith Jr. | H: 6’5, WS: 6’9 | Guard | Arkansas
Smith has had a couple issues with injuries so far this year, but should nonetheless be in the running for a top 5 pick. Even with his injuries impacting his on-court ability in the few games he’s played for Arkansas this year, he’s reminding people why he’s so highly regarded.
He’s more of a score-first point guard, but man is he good at scoring first. If there is a word to describe him on offence it would be ‘effortless’. When he’s healthy, it’s a gift to watch his simple smoothness overtake his game and deliver some easy buckets. He hasn’t racked up any crazy assist numbers yet but he’s definitely capable of running an offence. His fit with teammate Anthony Black is actually genius, as both guards are capable of playmaking should Nick need to take over scoring duties. I think ideally you would want to pair him with another backcourt mate to help with the playmaking load in the NBA as well.
It’s difficult to deliver an analysis on Smith at the college level right now as he’s only played 5 games, but if he returns at some point before the end of the season it’ll be easy for him to cement himself in that top 5 range.
That knee is something to keep an eye on though, as Arkansas has ruled him out indefinitely to manage it.
Cam Whitmore | H: 6’7, WS: N/A | Forward | Villanova
Being 18 on draft night means that Cam Whitmore will be one of the youngest players in the class. Pair that with his natural talent and I would absolutely not fault a team for taking him in the top 5-6 if the draft happened today.
His big frame is ready for the NBA, and he uses his combo of size and strength to his advantage when it comes to getting his shots. He has a lot of room to grow as a ball handler, but I actually like what I’ve seen so far. He can utilize his strength to play some straight-up bully ball, but he has some rare moments of creative flashes that you have to find intriguing from a developmental perspective.
Cam is a tough and physical defensive presence as well, I don’t have a lot of concerns with regards to his two-way ability translating to the NBA. His size has been reported anywhere between 6’7 and 6’9, so he fits the bill for teams wanting a prospect who projects as a bigger shot creating engine to lead their offence. His scoring totals are sometimes a little low for what you want out of a prospect like him, but he’s been steadily improving as the season’s gone on, dropping 26 points on elite efficiency in Villanova’s most recent game against Xavier.
The rawness of Whitmore means that there are some questions as to what his ceiling can actually be, but for any teams looking for a versatile, two-way forward with intriguing flashes in the half court, I don’t think you can justify passing on him.
Brandon Miller | H: 6’9, WS: N/A | Forward | Alabama
Brandon Miller is one of the earliest and fastest risers we’ve seen this draft cycle. His early explosive performances against quality teams have given him that top 5 buzz. While I don’t think it’s much of a debate whether or not Miller should be taken in the lottery, I’m not as convinced that he’s a name deserving to go super early.
Miller is simply one of the best three point scorers in college basketball. His high volume of 7.2 threes per contest at an elite percentage of 44% leaves little concern that he won’t be a sniper in the NBA. He’s definitely a lottery prospect because of this skill alone, but he possesses some weaknesses that will likely leave some teams wary of selecting him in the top 5.
To put it bluntly, Miller’s game inside of the three point line is poor. He actually shoots better from deep (44%) than he does from inside (43%). He doesn’t possess great feel when finishing and his handle is shaky at best right now. There’s an easy path to him becoming a better creator a few years down the line if he’s given those primary handler reps on a team with no immediate playoff aspirations, but the concerns about him being a wing sized version of Jabari Smith Jr. on offence aren’t without merit. His athleticism is also what I would label as below average, so there’s a bit of concern with how he’ll match up with NBA talent and how he’ll adjust his game to beat those more athletic players if he already struggles in that area at the college level.
It’s clear to see what makes Miller such a coveted prospect, but there also needs to be some caution regarding his role in the NBA and what he can look like in the long-term. I get the feeling that the flashy box score numbers will invite some draft observers to see Miller as something that he isn’t.
Cason Wallace | H: 6’4, WS: N/A | Point Guard | Kentucky
I normally don’t like doing player comparisons, but Cason Wallace gives me so much Jrue Holiday vibes that I would be remiss to say that the two players aren’t eerily similar.
Wallace is likely going to get some “jack of all trades, master of none” evaluations thrown his way during this draft cycle, which is somewhat fair. He’s a fantastic defensive guard (seriously, I can’t not see Jrue Holiday here) with some good playmaking ability and above average efficiency from all three levels on offence.
I wouldn’t really say he does anything at a particularly elite level, but that could be a result of Kentucky’s system. Many guards who are students of Coach Cal have often enjoyed massive developmental boosts upon being drafted to the NBA (Devin Booker and Jamal Murray being notable examples), and with Wallace’s skills I would predict that pattern to continue.
Wallace has a low percentage from the free throw line, but he doesn’t really get to the line all that much to begin with. I find the latter part of his game a bit more concerning.
He also doesn’t really take a lot of high difficulty shots, which means he may be more suited to a complimentary role compared to a starring one. That said, if a team wants a player guaranteed to pan out and not bust, I would take Wallace as one of the safest bets in the lottery.
Keyonte George | H: 6’4, WS: N/A | Combo Guard | Baylor
Hooper alert.
Keyonte is one of my guys in this class. Even if the Raptors wind up a little bit above his range on draft night I’ll still likely find myself rooting for him in the NBA. Some of the most exciting play I’ve seen from him was during the GLOBL Jam when he dropped 37 on Canada’s squad.
I think Keyonte is one of the best examples of a scoring guard in this class. He’s not the quickest off the dribble, but he has a sense of craftiness that allows him to get to the rim or make big shots.
The shooting splits are low at the moment, but his high shooting volume combined with a higher free throw percentage provides some optimism that he won’t be reduced to an inefficient chucker in the NBA. He’ll need to go through the motions at times, but any team looking for a player who projects to get buckets at the next level will likely have their eyes on Keyonte.
An underrated aspect of Keyonte’s game is his playmaking ability. While it’s unlikely that you’ll have him playing point in the NBA, averaging around 4 assists per game for Baylor is something that shouldn’t go unnoticed for a guard usually thought of as just a scorer.
You’d likely want a better playmaking guard next to him most nights, but Keyonte plays with a degree of unselfishness that allows him to still be useful on the court when his shot isn’t falling. He’s fairly strong and has a nice frame, which means he has the ability to become a good defender if he puts the effort in, he’s just not all there defensively at the moment.
Regardless, being able to handle the ball, shoot, and potentially defend makes Keyonte all the more intriguing for teams selecting outside the top 5. The main concern is if he can get that efficiency up.
Anthony Black | H: 6’7, WS: N/A | Guard | Arkansas
Anthony Black is another guy who I find myself growing on as the college season gets closer to March. He’s had to anchor most of Arkansas’ offence in the backcourt due to the inconsistency of Nick Smith’s health, but he’s done an alright job in this area. He’s a bigger guard who likely fits in as a secondary playmaker in the NBA. I don’t think you’d want him running your offence for extended periods, but you can certainly live with him running the bench unit or bringing the ball up the floor if your point guard needs to play off-ball. He’s done that pretty well at Arkansas.
Despite averaging a touch under 4 assists, I think it would be fair to describe Black as more comfortable in a playmaking role rather than a scoring role at this point in time. He’s pretty intelligent and has been a steady offensive engine for Arkansas in Nick Smith’s absence. He’s a fairly strong athlete, and has moments of defensive intensity that make you think he can defend both wings and guards fairly well, but then he’ll confuse you and completely disappear for long stretches on that end of the floor. I need to see more from him before I’m willing to label him as a versatile defender, but the fact that I’ve noticed more weaknesses and mental lapses from him (both on and off the ball in recent games) isn’t a great sign.
The shooting is something that’s gotta improve. It’s a reason why I have Black a little lower in my rankings right now, but I don’t think scouts should totally dismiss him here altogether. His shooting is pretty low volume/low percentage at this point in time, but the fact that he can take those shots at all with an okay form means there’s potential for long term growth here.
Other players I’m keeping an eye on right now:
Houston’s Jarace Walker is someone who is likely going to go in the lottery on draft night. From what I’ve watched so far, he is a very physically gifted and athletic forward capable of dominating based on pure strength alone. He doesn’t have much of an offensive game right now outside of the post and finishing transition plays, but he is fairly well developed defensively, capable of switching multiple positions and blocking shots. He’s capable of making some pretty sweet passes in transition and I’m optimistic he can become a better playmaker in general. He certainly fits the mold that the Raptors have gone for in recent years, but unless there are some big roster changes he would be a pretty poor and redundant fit.
Kansas’ Gradey Dick, an elite shooting wing playing for arguably the best team in the nation. He’s capable of hitting any type of three you can imagine whether that’s off the catch, relocation, on the move, or off the dribble. I don’t know if I can see a complete three level scorer in his future, but the fact that he’s such an elite deep threat already will have teams penciling his name down near the back half of the lottery. He’s not a great one on one defender, but he’s shown competence adapting to schemes and being a general positive as a team defender.
Ohio State’s Brice Sensabaugh, one of the most efficient offensive wings in college basketball who gives me strikingly similar vibes that I once got from watching Desmond Bane play. I currently have him ranked as a lottery prospect and would be more than happy with the Raptors taking him in the 8-14 range, though that is higher than the consensus right now. The shooting is just so elite, and his form is as close to perfect as it can get for a college prospect. He has incredible body control, and moves incredibly well both with and without the ball. He’s also built like a tank, and it’s easy to see him becoming an incredibly impactful player on both ends immediately, with an insane amount of room to grow.
Michigan’s Jett Howard, a 6’7 wing who is also the son of coach Juwan Howard. I’m currently loving Howard’s offensive versatility, from his slashing ability to his deep range prowess. I like the footwork, but not the handle at this point in time. He’s really quite agile, but he needs more control in his game before he starts seeing more results on the offensive end. I always tend to like players who can move well though, and Jett checks that box. I like the long-term shot creating upside if a team actually invests in his development. The off-ball game is already fairly elite and he’s going to fit perfectly on whatever team he goes to, with room to develop his on-ball game and alleviate concerns in that area. He’s ramping up his offensive production of late, and recently dropped 34 on elite efficiency against Iowa. I don’t think he’s going to fall out of the lottery while his complete scoring package is on an upward trend.
Central Florida’s Taylor Hendricks, a stretch forward who also plays with high efficiency. For a 6’9 player like him, having an effective shooting stroke will likely rocket him up draft boards as the draft draws nearer. If the Raptors acquire another mid first rounder or somehow fall out of the lottery by the time the draft rolls around and they want to continue the 6’9 experiment, Hendricks would be a breath of fresh air because not only does he fit that bill, but he can actually shoot. Expect him to operate in a complimentary role in the NBA, as self creation isn’t something he’s particularly good at. That said, he should be fairly competent in that role due to his diverse skillset. He’s capable of playing both forward positions and plays with defensive aggression.
Pepperdine’s Maxwell Lewis, another player that I am quite high on simply due to his elite offensive efficiency (noticing a pattern?). A sophomore wing, Lewis is posting 20/6/3 averages on shooting splits of 52/42/86. The volume is there from every level, and I’m convinced he can be a high level scorer in the NBA. The defensive game needs work, but I think that’s something that you live with in exchange for such elite offensive output. Pepperdine doesn’t have a rigorous schedule but Lewis has performed well against the few good teams they have faced, which bodes well for his NBA adjustments.
South Carolina’s GG Jackson is someone that I imagine many of the 6’9 truther fans will be enamoured with. Being only 17 years old as a freshman means that the youth is very appealing from a developmental perspective, and averaging a touch under 16 points per game for South Carolina at that age is an impressive feat. That said, the extremely poor efficiency is very concerning for a player at his position, as well as his complete lack of defensive ability. I need to see more before I’m willing to put him in conversation for a high lottery pick. I think staying in school would benefit him, and he could very well play himself into a top pick next year if he improves in these areas. If he enters the draft this year, whoever selects him needs to prepare for a lengthy but potentially rewarding developmental process.
“Hold on Brendan,” I hear you say in the distance, “the Raptors have a pressing need for a big man, and the only real big here is Wemby, what gives?”
Well, the sad fact of the matter is that outside of Wembanyama, this draft is actually quite poor in terms of talented bigs. There are the likes of Oregon’s Kel’el Ware and Duke’s Kyle Filipowski who will likely land somewhere in the mid to late first round, but I would stay far away from both players at the range the Raptors will be picking. Acquiring another first round pick could open up avenues where they would be more willing to gamble on a big later in the draft, but that’s still a risky play in terms of finding your future starter at the 5. Unless the lottery gods smile upon the Raptors and bless them with the first overall pick or a starting big becomes available for a reasonable price at the trade deadline, that’s a hole that the Raptors might be forced to hold off on addressing until next year.
