Nick Nurse said a revealing thing before Jakob Poeltl’s first game (of his second stint) as a Toronto Raptor:
“I’ll just be interested to see how we end up using him or how we feel like it’s best to use him defensively,” he said. “He was sitting in drop coverage, deep, deep drop coverage most of the season… But we don’t usually play that way.
“[His presence] gives us a chance to have another coverage, if that’s what he’s going to excel at. And maybe we can figure out how to excel that way ourselves even though that’s not one of our things we do.
“Or we’re gonna get him up there [at the level] and see what happens.”
In other words, the Raptors are loathe to use deep drop as a defensive coverage, but they’ll give it a try if that’s the only way to find success with Poeltl in the game. Nurse knows Poeltl can improve the defense, but he doesn’t want to sacrifice the philosophy unless he has to. Poeltl gives them an entirely new aspect that hasn’t been available to the Raptors since Marc Gasol wore the white and purple. He’s gigantic and an excellent rim protector; however, that doesn’t mean the Raptors are going to amend the entire team’s constitution because that’s how Poeltl usually plays. Instead, they’ve asked him to adapt to the team.
By and large, it’s worked wonderfully.
Poeltl hasn’t played a single possession in deep drop, to my eye. He has once or twice been caught with his pants down, so to speak, with him defending an off-ball action a beat too long while his man sets an on-ball screen, so he’s caught lower than intended by the time the pick comes to fruition. (He’s recovered well in those situations.) But mostly he’s been high, active, and in space. To that point, the difference between playing in a high drop and playing at the level is only the gap of a foot or two. Poeltl mostly hasn’t been showing, blitzing, or switching. But he is in space, and whether you want to call that a high drop or at the level is mostly a matter of semantics.
As long as Poeltl’s being in space doesn’t prevent him from recovering to the rim and defending it, the Raptors can have their cake and eat it too. So far, so cake-y. (Uh, or something.)
Poeltl has been incredibly active up top. He hasn’t had to challenge any high-level pull-up 3-point shooters yet (and he fouled a three already in just two games) so we’ll see how he fares against players like Damian Lillard and his ilk. But he’s moved well in space, scampered back to the paint with his patented mobility, and done well recovering down low to challenge shots.
There’s some smooth connectivity between defenders going on. Toronto has at times tagged the roller behind Poeltl and played like a normal defensive time, letting players recover to their original marks after a few beats. The Raptors generally insist on going over screens, which is a little bit of a head-scratcher at times, but Poeltl’s ability to start at the level and stay in the play no matter where the ball funnels allows Toronto’s point-of-attack defenders to chase their way back into the play. He’s unlocked plenty of good.
He’s also been caught in space a little bit, which will happen to any defender that suits up for the Raptors. Toronto prioritizes defenders who excel in space, and even though some defenders like Fred VanVleet and Scottie Barnes have had their on-ball difficulties this season, both have been excellent (in different ways) at causing havoc when they’re stuck in rotations and clogging lanes. (VanVleet is better at clogging driving lanes and Barnes passing lanes.) Poeltl hasn’t been asked to do so much with the San Antonio Spurs, but he’s had some positive moments so far as a Raptor. It hasn’t all been perfect (more on that to come), but he’s shown an early knack for not falling out of position while he ambles around the court. He has a good nose for what’s real and what’s fake, and he is fantastic at prioritizing higher threats to ignore lesser ones.
(Yes, the shot went in. That’ll happen in the NBA. But Poeltl did a lot of great stuff in open space on the possession.)
The few times Poeltl has been caught below the play and forced to start further from the screen, it’s been clear that that’s his natural state. His positioning is smooth, and he’s great at challenging shots from the I’m-waiting-for-you spot in the paint. That Toronto does send its ballhandlers over so many screens should allow them to funnel ballhandlers into Poeltl to force a lot of contested midrangers. We’ll see if they let Poeltl start out in deep drop at all. (So far, no go, but it should allow Toronto to minimize rotations and theoretically close off opponents’ corner 3-pointers by not having to pinch in so much from the edges of the court.)
Poeltl has been forced to switch once that I’ve caught. He wasn’t actively targeted (which, the Detroit Pistons have a really bad offense, so keep that in mind of course), but he held his own and battled back into the play to impact it rather than let himself float out beyond the arc.
Poeltl also has the ability to clean up teammates’ mistakes. He can meet opponents above the rim, and unlike his Raptor teammates, he doesn’t have to get off his feet early to challenge shots. That’s a huge advantage as a helper, if you can actually get there on time. Toronto has lacked defenders who both don’t commit mistakes and can solve others’ errors. But Poeltl so far has done both.
Of course, it hasn’t been perfect. Poeltl has gotten lost with rotations a tiny bit, and if anyone remembers Jonas Valanciunas, 7-footers are vulnerable to in-and-out dribbles from speedy guards who are already downhill. That’s life sometimes; offenses score a lot in today’s NBA and even great defenders can lose on individual possessions. The positioning mistake you have to hope clears up once Poeltl settles into the schemes.
So that’s the film. It’s been a whole lot of great stuff, and Toronto hasn’t even let him play in the coverage in which he’s most comfortable. That he’s still solved a lot of the Raptors’ troubles is encouraging; it all shows up in the numbers (and then some).
The statistics are nothing but wisps of smoke at this point, so small is the size of the sample, but they do correspond to the film. Opponents are shooting significantly worse from 2-point range with Poeltl on the floor, and as a result the opposing effective field goal percentage with Poeltl playing is 47.3 (as opposed to 56.7 over the season without Poeltl). No team in the league as an eFG percentage below 50 on the season, so don’t expect that number to stay the same in any way, shape, or form. But it should tell you than even though the Raptors have given up 122 and 118 points in the two games with Poeltl in the fold, they have defended well with Poeltl actually on the floor. Opposing shot quality has dropped, and they’re taking far more shots from the midrange. All of that corresponds to what you would expect with a proper rim protector on the floor.
(Another thing when it comes to the numbers: Poeltl has actually faced some bad shooting and foul luck in the pick and roll. He’s had some iffy fouls go against him, and relative non-shooters like Isaiah Stewart and Jaden Ivey both hit some contested triples after Poeltl blew up the initial action and the Pistons had to reset. So the numbers look phenomenal for Poeltl. But it’s not like everything has gone his way.)
Poeltl’s 42 minutes aren’t even remotely close enough to qualifying, but his on/off mark per 100 possession would be the best on the team. He’s helped the defense by negative-32.8 points. Again, that’s noise, but the Raptors should be confident that he will help to some extent. (Christian Koloko has the third-best defensive on/off rating per 100 possession, at negative-11, so there is precedent that a 7-foot rim protector will be meaningful for the Raptors, albeit certainly not to that extent.)
Ultimately, it’s kind of obvious that a player like Poeltl would help the Raptors. Toronto is 23rd in the league at suppressing opposing triples and at-rim attempts, which is the opposite of having your cake and eating it too. (Losing your cake and being hungry? More spiritually than literally the inverse, but, your ice cream fell on the floor?) Toronto is below average at forcing misses from opponents, holding them off the glass, and keeping them from the free throw line. Just an awful combination. That’s why both Masai Ujiri and Nurse acknowledged after the trade deadline that the Raptors have needed a guy like Poeltl for a while. He can address a huge number of those weaknesses.
But there’s a big difference between can and is. That he’s done it all from jump street is incredibly encouraging. It hasn’t totally shown up in Toronto’s overall team performance, at just 1-1 since the trade. But Poeltl has played only 21 minutes a game as he’s been limited by fouls, and the Raptors have taken their time working him into the rotation. Still, when he’s been on the court, Poeltl has defanged opposing pick and rolls. If he can keep that up, he might prove Toronto’s puzzling trade deadline approach prescient.
