Welcome to draft season, Raptors Republic! Over the next couple weeks, I’ll be posting my analysis of the hottest names expected to be available when the Raptors pick 13th overall in the 2023 NBA Draft. I’ve previously posted two articles introducing this draft class, and you can find those here and here. Samson and scout Josh Codinera also talked about the subject of today’s article in this video here.
Be sure to check out Brett’s article on Anthony Black once you’re done here for more draft reading.
Tell you what, we’re just going to jump right into it. If you’ve been following the draft up to this point, you’ve likely seen Kobe Bufkin’s name thrown around by Raptors fans who would like to see the electric combo guard wind up on their team on June 22nd. For those of you who have lives, let this serve as your introduction to one of my personal favourite prospects in the 2023 draft class.
Standing at 6’4.25 without shoes, Bufkin will measure up to ~6’5ish on an NBA court, making him an ideal size for either guard position. Bufkin isn’t a natural point guard, but grew to play in the role of a playmaker during his sophomore season, which also coincidentally rocketed his stock to a surefire first round pick (and into lottery territory, depending on who you ask).
Offence
His projected role in the league will be a combo guard; someone who slots in at the 2 in most lineups but is comfortable enough at handling and playmaking to play the 1 in short bursts when needed. I grew more and more impressed with his playmaking as Michigan’s season went on, and there’s some primary creation flashes here and there. Probably never a full time point guard, but he has some pretty advanced vision and passing instincts already. Cross-court passes, quick whips inside, no-looks to Jett Howard in the corner, Bufkin showcased a wide array of smart reads.
His shot chart can be seen below:
The touch: feathery, and with the adept ambidextrous ability to finish at the rim with either hand. Bufkin’s rim finishing is elite, and he’s often able to slither to the basket at will. He had a lower rate of free throw attempts than you would like from a player who shot at the rim as much as he did, but Bufkin’s ability to power to the basket and absorb contact is nonetheless a strength.
Bufkin is capable of effortlessly gliding to the rim, and while he possesses the finesse and body control to make acrobatic finishes, he’s also capable of getting above the rim for some athletic feats.
I wish I could just post a full highlight reel of his strides into the paint since he makes it look so ridiculously easy. There are countless examples of him just stepping around the traffic cones that are the opposing team’s players and carving up interior defences on his way to score an easy bucket.
The shooting: a work in progress, but notable. Bufkin can shoot, which is more than a lot of other higher end prospects can say in this class, and there’s reason to expect him to keep developing this part of his game. The volume is on the lower end for a higher usage guard, but shooting in the mid 30’s on close to 4 attempts as well as his very high percentage from the free throw line means that his shot should translate fairly well. There are positive trends with his shot in general and I don’t notice any big mechanical issues with his form, which is quite smooth and consistent.
I wouldn’t say his handle is elite by any stretch, but the fact that he is capable of flashing any combination of step-backs and pull-ups is nothing short of encouraging for his long term potential as a shot creator. Mid-range production numbers don’t pop off the page but he had some plays that definitely raised eyebrows.
As his opportunities have increased, so too has Bufkin’s production. Starting out with a lower usage rate and reduced to more of an off-ball role, Bufkin’s true shooting percentage was in the mid 40’s. As he got more touches, more trust, and more responsibility handling and scoring the ball, his efficiency rocketed up to where it is now at 57.8%.
Bufkin still excels in that aforementioned off-ball role. He functions well as a cutter and moves well without the ball when getting to his spots, making him an ideal complimentary player. Michigan liked to run off-ball screens for Bufkin like this:
Defence
The tools are there. 6’5 with a near 6’8 wingspan means Bufkin should be able to match up physically with most guards and smaller wings. I don’t expect any all-defensive accolades, but Bufkin won’t get played off the floor, especially if he puts on some weight. His hands are very quick, and he has encouraging block and steal numbers for a player of his position and stature.
He doesn’t just use his athleticism on the offensive end.
He keeps the fouls relatively low, and I don’t recall seeing too many boneheaded plays from him. He plays within himself and knows when he’s out of his element, but he’ll still give a good effort defensively. Not a lot of concerns when it comes to rebounding the ball either.
Watch this sequence. This is the effort Bufkin plays with:
Areas of Improvement
Offensively, you obviously want to see an increase with the shooting volume from deep. I believe Bufkin will become a positive shooter in the league, but as of now he’s mostly a guy who can drive to the rim with only a couple of threes per game (if you want him taking smart shots).
Defensively, he’s on the physically weaker side. While Bufkin has good size and length, it’s likely he’s going to get pushed around by the stronger scorers who drive to the rim, leaving him in shambles on the perimeter. He could stand to put on a few pounds, as he only weighed in at about 186 lbs at the combine. Putting on some muscle and gaining some strength will be a difference maker on both ends of the floor, because absorbing contact is a whole different game at the NBA level.
Bufkin has a positive assist to turnover ratio, which is good, but he still occasionally makes some questionable reads — and coaches will want to see him improve in this area if he wants to get more ball-handling and playmaking reps in the NBA.
Role on the Raptors
As previously mentioned, Bufkin will be capable of slotting into the 2 immediately, while also being able to get reps at the 1 if needed. If Gary Trent and Fred VanVleet were to leave in the offseason, Bufkin could start in the backcourt alongside Scottie Barnes (or another guard), and take over reps at point guard to run the bench unit.
Assuming the Raps bring everybody back and the power of friendship triumphs in free agency, Bufkin is an easy slot as the 7th man of the squad due to his positional versatility and ability to help patch up the roster’s glaring offensive holes. You can run him off the bench with Gary Trent and it would solve some spacing and playmaking problems.
Long term, I like Bufkin’s ceiling as a well rounded guard who can make an impact on both ends of the floor. His lower-end outcome, he fills a need as an offensive option off the bench. On the higher end, he can be a high impact two-way starter who can handle and provide playmaking relief when needed, along with increased volume from deep as the years go on. I’m not saying all star, but y’know…
Brendan’s Assessment
Bufkin’s dramatic improvement from his freshman to sophomore year should not go unnoticed. In his first year at Michigan, he was coming off the bench, averaging 10 minutes per game, shooting on terrible efficiency, and not even looking like he really belonged. Since then, he’s grown into one of college basketball’s premier guards, making the All-Big Ten team last season and improving in every statistical category. Such improvement over the duration of his short career should only give NBA teams optimism that he will continue to grow at a steady pace.
If you’re familiar with my player analysis from previous drafts, you’ll know that I tend to gravitate toward players who could be called jacks of all trades; prospects that don’t have very many glaring weaknesses and are ready to contribute immediately and for a long time. Based on all the Michigan games I watched this year, I strongly believe Bufkin fits that bill. For those concerned about age and upside, don’t worry. His best days are yet to come as he’ll only be 19 years old on draft night.
Kobe Bufkin is shaping up to be the 9th best overall prospect on my big board. With the players expected to be available at 13, he would be one of the best choices for the Raptors in my eyes.
Given what we’ve discussed today, do you agree?
