The Dayton prospect is impactful from everywhere on the basketball court and recently led the Flyers to their first tournament appearance in 7 years; why isn’t he getting more attention?
Be sure to also check out the previous articles on draft prospects in this series such as Kyle Filipowski.
DaRon Holmes | 6’10 Big | Dayton | 21 years old
The Intro
You want a big with the 19th pick? This is the guy.
Post play, shooting, playmaking, high level defensive effort, elite rim protection numbers, why is he not widely considered a lottery prospect? The Raptors are going to have a gem on their hands if Holmes is available at 19 and someone should probably get fired if they opt to take a different big man over him. Here’s why:
The Offence
Holmes improved both his volume and his shooting efficiency from beyond the arc during each one of his three years at Dayton, before topping out at 39% on just under 3 attempts per game while shooting 71% from the line. If there’s doubt in your mind that Holmes won’t be a shooter in the NBA, shake that thought now because the proof is in the pudding. The form also looks much cleaner compared to previous years.
It’s a good thing that his free throw percentages have risen alongside his shooting percentages, because Holmes gets to the line more than any other player in NCAA D1 basketball besides Tulsa’s PJ Haggerty and Purdue’s Zach Edey. Part of that is due to being a big man in college ball – you’re gonna get hacked a lot, but Holmes has a knack for drawing fouls as well.
He’s an excellent mover and cutter off the ball too.
Getting whacked will come naturally when you play in the post as often as Holmes does, he’s a bully that can finish with strength and finesse and racked up around 20 points in just over 32 minutes per contest last year, putting him in the top 30 for ppg in college ball. He could still stand to continue to improve his post play as his footwork can be rather rigid at times.
He’s a brick wall when setting his screens and he rolls to the rim with a full head of steam, finishing with finesse and power. If that doesn’t work out, he redirects the pass. Running Holmes in PNR sets with Quickley or Barnes would be a weapon that Darko would drool over.
Holmes can dribble in a straight line, usually if catching a pass on the roll before driving inside, but I wouldn’t put him in the same realm as say, Filipowski or Sarr when it comes to handling bigs in this class. That said, he has some explosive athleticism and can utilize that on drives.
Holmes’ playmaking has always been a plus to his game and I think he would fit well in a ball-movement focused offence. Dayton often used him as a connective presence, swinging passes out from the middle, but he had occasional reps running PNR. He needs to work on lowering his turnovers but his AST:TO in his final year at Dayton was still +0.4 so it looks like it’s developing in the right direction.
The Defence
What, you thought there was going to be a downside somewhere? A 3x All A-10 Defence Team member and the 2023-24 A-10 Defensive Player of the Year, Holmes is one of the best defensive bigs in the draft.
His head is constantly on a swivel. Holmes has laid out a nice resume as a rim protector, averaging 2.1 blocks per game during his 3 year tenure at Dayton while only averaging 1.9 fouls per game in the same time frame. His instincts and discipline at defending the rim are just sublime, making him one of college basketball’s premier shot blockers.
His athleticism helps make up for his albeit somewhat shorter wingspan compared to other shot blocking bigs.
He’s always active on the defensive end and can step out to the perimeter. He’s agile, moves his feet well, and has good positioning, though he can get twisted around by faster players. I’ll be interested in seeing if he can remedy this at the next level, but he doesn’t give up if he’s beat.
When his team gets a defensive stop – he’s instantly gone in the other direction waiting for a pass. With quick agility times at the combine, one can expect him to continue that speedy transition play at the next level.
I’ve been frequently impressed with Holmes’ attitude and body language. I don’t think I’ve ever seen him get too down on himself or his teammates after a mistake on defence, and he’s not typically one to complain to the refs.
Brendan’s Take (Meet the Bigs)
I had Holmes as a lottery graded prospect last year in a much stronger draft class and was disappointed when he returned to school, but it could work out in both his and the Raptors’ favour as he is a player who will likely be available at the 19th pick. You can trust him to be impactful defensively without fouling out, and you can keep him in the game during late-game scenarios due to his ability to draw fouls and convert without burning you.
I’ve been confused as to why names like Yves Missi and Kel’el Ware have been dominating the big man discourse for the 19th pick when Holmes just pulls a Peacemaker on both of them.
Comparing Holmes to Missi, Holmes has far better defensive impact (both in terms of advanced stats and raw steal/block numbers even when expanded to per 36), his instincts are more refined, his decision making is quicker and sharper, and he keeps his fouls to an impressive 2.2 per 36 compared to Missi’s 3.7 per 36. For a guy you expect to do the dirty work, anchor your defence, and defend the rim, keeping the fouls that low is an impressive feat.
He’s simply a better shooter than Ware in terms of raw numbers, yet Ware has garnered a rather undeserved reputation as a stretch 5 while I haven’t seen anywhere close to the same buzz about Holmes. Ware has motor concerns and is a poor defender, while implying that Holmes has low effort or defensive concerns would be a statement that would get you laughed out of a room.
I don’t think the age argument is going to hold much water either seeing as Holmes looks much farther along the development curve with only a year on the other two prospects. So Holmes is coming into the league more polished than Missi and Ware, at both of their respective selling point skills, and on top of all that, Holmes has the benefit of being a solid playmaker for his position while that doesn’t look like a skill either one of the other bigs has a shot of developing.
If I were to guess why he hasn’t been a more popular name high up in the draft – playing against lower level competition at a mid-major like Dayton is likely a factor. In spite of that, he performed well when the lights were brightest against high level competition like Arizona. He’s not a true 7 footer which some have used to detract against him, but I don’t really have that concern.
Regardless, I have Holmes 10th on my big board this year and the third best big in the class behind Alex Sarr and Donovan Clingan. Holmes’ range is a little harder to get a hold of because there was some smoke that OKC promised to take him at the 12th pick. That doesn’t feel like something Sam Presti would let leak this early in the draft process (what’s the point?), so I’m a little skeptical. Sure there was the rumour about him cancelling workouts, but I know for a fact that he still participated in several. With conversations I’ve had elsewhere, Holmes’ range appears to be mid teens to early 20’s, putting the Raptors firmly within striking distance.
We’ve just seen firsthand what kind of impact a player like Naz Reid can have in playoff scenarios – why would we want to pass up on someone with a similar set of skills?
Tomorrow we’re back to guards – and instead of looking at someone with a rising stock, we’ll be checking out a prospect who has been sliding down the mocks after being a hot name all season.
